Orlando Magic Daily Mailbag Volume 30: New Beginnings

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ORLANDO, FL – NOVEMBER 5: Aaron Gordon #00 of the Orlando Magic shoots the ball against the Boston Celtics on November 5, 2017 at Amway Center in Orlando, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Fernando Medina/NBAE via Getty Images) /

From John Poulsen via e-mail

"Don’t know on the site if you did the player evaluation for Gordon yet or if this was discussed in there or not cause I don’t know if it’s up yet but do you think if the price is a little too high for the Magic that the Magic wouldn’t match a contract for Aaron Gordon or will match?"

The decision to match Aaron Gordon is the central decision of the Orlando Magic’s offseason.

Just from a financial standpoint, Orlando has $78.2 million guaranteed committed to next season. With a cap that is expected to hit at around $102 million and Aaron Gordon holding a cap hold of $16.5 million, that means the Magic have roughly $8 million of room before signing Gordon to a new deal. And that would be if the team cuts or renounces the rights to Shelvin Mack, Rodney Purvis and Khem Birch.

Gordon is likely to get quite the pay boost from even that $16.5 million amount — I have been thinking at least $20 million — so most of that cap room is eaten into. Renouncing him would obviously free up some cash to give the Magic a chance to spend.

That does not seem likely. Orlando giving up a 22-year-old player who just came off a career season.

But obviously, we would not be here if there were not some misgivings about keeping Gordon and giving him that big contract. It does not feel like in this market someone will give him a max contract. But, at the same time, Gordon did not exactly have the strongest end to the season.

It is easy to want to buy into the first half of the season. In his first 25 games, he averaged 18.5 points per game while shooting 49.2 percent from the floor and better than 40 percent from beyond the arc. In his final 19 games, he averaged 16.0 points per game but shot 40.6 percent from the floor.

Orlando Magic /

Orlando Magic

It was quite the difference. That second half of the season version of Gordon is not someone you invest that much money in. Or at least you have some misgivings about. He struggled to get himself back into rhythm after the injuries and even took on some bad habits.

So there is that bit of tension. Adding in the fact this is a new management group clearly looking at a massive rebuild, and it begins to look like Jeff Weltman and John Hammond may not be as married to Aaron Gordon as we all think.

It definitely is not a sure thing Gordon is back. If creating financial flexibility is the goal, giving a five-year $100-plus million contract to Gordon is not going to help matters.

So whether the Magic re-sign Gordon or not might very well come down to reaching a number the Magic are comfortable investing. They have had a year to watch him and understand his place on the team.

If someone comes in with an offer that they are uncomfortable matching, it would not surprise me to see the Magic let Gordon walk in the end. It will be even more interesting to see if they make that decision before free agency by drafting a big wing like Michael Porter or a power forward like Marvin Bagley.