Orlando Magic’s defense takes one step forward, two steps back
Much has been made of the Orlando Magic’s post-All-Star defensive rating. The Magic have been around league average. But a closer look at the numbers indicates not much has changed.
In the first 62 games of the season, the Orlando Magic allowed roughly 110 points per 100 possessions. No matter how you slice it, that is bad. If the Magic’s pre-All-Star weekend opponents were a team, it would have nearly a top-five offense.
Since then, that number has fallen to 106.1 points per 100 possessions. That is still not great, but a sizable improvement nonetheless. They went from the bottom of the barrel to in the realm of league average, which at face value is nothing to sneeze at.
Of course, this improvement somewhat coincided with Elfrid Payton‘s departure via trade. The timing seems significant considering Payton’s well-documented defensive deficiencies. And his replacements – D.J. Augustin and Shelvin Mack – being far more effective statistically than Elfrid Payton both before and after the break.
The defense has improved in certain aspects, but the +2.3 aggregate improvement is misleading. The Magic have not exactly played a murderer’s row of offenses in the past few weeks.
Using Nylon Calculus’s possessions estimate formula, the Magic played about 5,683 possessions before the break and 2,050 after. Based on opponent offensive ratings, the Magic were expected to have a defensive rating of 107 before the break, their actual defensive rating of 110 making them three points worse than expected.
After the break, they were expected to have a defensive rating of 105.9. Their actual defensive rating of 106.1 makes them 0.2 points worse than expected. So rather than improving by 3.9 points, 2.8 might be the more accurate number.
Orlando Magic
But looking at opponent quality through offensive rating alone does not fully capture the reality of the Magic’s strength of schedule.
Nearly one-third of the teams they have played – the New York Knicks, Dallas Mavericks, Atlanta Hawks, Memphis Grizzlies, Chicago Bulls and Phoenix Suns – have been blatantly resting their best players to improve their lottery odds. That also leaves out the Brooklyn Nets, Detroit Pistons and Los Angeles Lakers, all of whom are lottery teams without their own pick in this year’s draft.
Take out the six teams trying to lose, and the Magic have an expected defensive rating of 107.2. Their actual defensive rating in that period without those six? 110 points allowed per 100 possessions.
It does not seem the Magic’s defense has not improved at all. But that tells a macro picture of the story. There are signs of improvement since Payton’s departure.
The Magic have taken massive strides defending pick-and-roll ball handlers. According to Synergy Sports’ data, they have gone from near the bottom of the league in that category of defense to passable. Shelvin Mack and D.J. Augustin have gone from around average defending pick-and-roll ball handlers to good.
The Magic overall have gone from allowing 36.5 points more than expected against that play type down to 10.6, a massive improvement and one of the league’s largest in that timeframe.
Unfortunately for the Magic, the steps forward defending pick-and-roll ball handlers have been counteracted by poor defense against roll men, where their defense has worsened by 11.4 points over expectation. Nikola Vucevic‘s subpar play since returning from injury has played a role here, as he alone has accounted for most of that statistical drop.
But like their raw defensive rating, those numbers do not account for opponent quality.
It is difficult to pinpoint the reason for the Magic’s lack of improvement despite Payton’s departure, but Individual Regularized Adjusted Plus Minus does adjust for opponent quality. And that tells part of this story.
While the majority of the roster grades as positive by this metric, Mario Hezonja and Bismack Biyombo are both in the bottom seven percent of the NBA. Payton is the third-worst in the league. The tandem is allowing 118 points per 100 possessions, an abysmal number especially over such a large sample size.
When Mario Hezonja and/or Bismack Biyombo have played about 20 percent of the Magic’s possessions since the break (a noticeable jump), it is no surprise that any small steps forward on defense have been counteracted in the aggregate.
Mack and Augustin have been clear defensive improvements over Payton. But it simply has not carried over into the overall results.
The Magic have taken steps back in other areas. And the weak second-half schedule has overstated much of the defensive data.
Next: Aaron Gordon working on shot selection to end season
If the Magic become an average or above-average defensive team, it will not happen overnight. It will require an influx of talent and an overhaul of the team’s culture.