What are your takeaways from the NCAA Tournament from the Magic’s draft perspective?
Rossman-Reich: Freshmen are freshmen. I do not think it is a coincidence that we are looking at a Final Four full of veteran teams. The Villanova Wildcats had been through battles the last three years to get to this point. The Kansas Jayhawks do nothing but win championships in the Big 12. The Loyola Chicago Ramblers were a great story overall of a team that built over several years. The Michigan Wolverines were a veteran team with a coach that built up a strong defensive culture. The lack of NBA prospects in this Final Four is nothing new. This is the time when veteran players come to the forefront. And I think we all learned these are 19-year-olds at the top of the draft. They have a lot of growth and development still to go. Many of them are not ready for the biggest moments yet.
Bethel: Well, Michael Porter grabbed 16 points and 10 rebounds against a pretty stout Florida State Seminoles defense in a Missouri Tigers loss. Deandre Ayton put up 14 points and 13 rebounds for the Arizona Wildcats. Mohamed Bamba recorded 13 points and 14 rebounds in the Texas Longhorns’ loss to the Nevada Wolfpack. Jaren Jackson Jr. of the Michigan State Spartans put up two points and eight rebounds in a second-round loss to the Syracuse Orange. So what does any of that mean? Really, it seems these guys just showed a weaker microcosm of what they did in the regular season. Oh and can I talk about Luka Doncic for a second? There is always this stigma against betting high on European draft picks, which I think at this point is becoming increasingly mute.
Racine: From the Orlando Magic draft perspective, the NCAA Tournament should be an indication of the level of impact that Marvin Bagley III can bring to a team. He led the Duke Blue Devils to an Elite Eight appearance. That is farther than any other projected top-five pick. I think the Magic should put into consideration that Bagley led his team to the Elite Eight if it came down between him and Oklahoma Sooners guard Trae Young, whose team got eliminated in the first round. This March Madness was a disappointment from the Magic draft’s standpoint because we did not get to see top NBA prospects like Deandre Ayton, Michael Porter Jr. and Trae Young go far in the tournament.
Orlando Magic
Scricca: I think team success is largely irrelevant to evaluating prospects. On/off numbers have their place and impacting winning is important, but context and coaching at the college level can be so constrictive it is misguided to pin a team’s lack of success in college on one player.
While Trae Young, Mohamed Bamba, Michael Porter Jr., Deandre Ayton et al had quick exits it is important to peel back the results of those games and take a deeper look at how those players performed.
Remember how bad Ben Simmons‘ LSU Tigers team was? Or how good Jahlil Okafor‘s Duke team was?
That said, of all the NCAA’s elite prospects in the tournament, my biggest takeaway was Ayton’s abject failure to put forth effort on defense or even look like a competent college player on that end, let alone an NBA player. He haplessly watched as the Bufallo Bulls’ offense ran roughshod over the Arizona Wildcats, seeming unwilling to make (or incapable of making) proper rotations even as his eyes were clearly set on the play. This lack of effort and anticipation was a pattern for him throughout the season and should be factored in strongly to whatever decision the Magic — a team in dire need of high-motor, high-effort talent — make this June.
Palmer: Unless you do something otherworldly (See Kemba Walker 2011), I do not think anything should change your mind on players. Some players such as Deandre Ayton got one game to show off and they did not do much. I am not going to ignore what he did for the rest of the season because of how he and his team performed in a single game. The only real advantages to scouting in the NCAA Tournament are seeing guys who make deep runs for an extra four games and being able to do some additional evaluation. The NCAA Tournament really does not matter that much when it comes to draft evaluation for me.
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