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Orlando Magic got the modern offense Frank Vogel promised

By Philip Rossman-Reich

OKLAHOMA CITY, OK - FEBRUARY 26: Nikola Vucevic #9 of the Orlando Magic shoots the ball during the game against the Oklahoma City Thunder on February 26, 2018 at Chesapeake Energy Arena in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Layne Murdoch/NBAE via Getty Images)
OKLAHOMA CITY, OK - FEBRUARY 26: Nikola Vucevic #9 of the Orlando Magic shoots the ball during the game against the Oklahoma City Thunder on February 26, 2018 at Chesapeake Energy Arena in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Layne Murdoch/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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Orlando Magic coach Frank Vogel promised to modernize the team’s offense this year. While effectiveness is elusive, the team indeed appears modern.

At the beginning of the season — and really dating back to last year’s trade deadline — coach Frank Vogel promised he would modernize the offense. The league was moving away from a traditional two big man lineup and emphasizing spreading the floor and hoisting from beyond the arc.

This “moneyball” revolution as some have fashioned it has transformed offenses throughout the league. Everyone is trying to keep pace with offensive numbers that only seem to be skyrocketing. Teams like the Orlando Magic that lack great shooting have found themselves trying to keep up even with imperfect personnel.

Moving Aaron Gordon back to power forward was a necessary move. It created a ton more space and athleticism within the lineup, putting Evan Fournier and Terrence Ross on the perimeter as 3-point threats. The Magic’s whole outlook changed entering the year. The addition of Aaron Gordon’s 3-point shot — 28.8 percent last year to 34.6 percent this year — and Nikola Vucevic‘s 3-point shot changed Orlando. At least early in the year.

The season is nearing its end. Orlando’s offense once again has settled in near the bottom of the league — 103.5 offensive rating this season, 25th best in the league. All those modern trappings have not led to much efficiency.

That was different during the 8-4 start when the team was fully healthy of course. The Magic lifted to that start because of unsustainably good shooting. And from time to time, the Magic have had offensive explosions.

Clearly, the Magic have not had the consistency on either end of the floor to make much of a difference. The team has struggled offensively — even with simple things like executing with intensity and pace — that a fast-paced offense like the Magic are trying to run need.

And so the question remains when evaluating this season is just how modern the Magic have become.

Sure, they have a stretch-4 and a stretch-5, but does this team really look like the modern NBA? If that was a goal for the season — to install a modern NBA offense — have the Magic succeeded in that framework and mentality if they have not in result?

Ian Levy of Nylon Calculus brought back his nifty offensive style charts a few weeks ago and showed the changes between the offense this year and the offense last year. It indeed does look very different:

Magic.jpg (JPEG Image, 1406×956 pixels) – Scaled (71%) via kwout

The blue line represents the Magic’s offense this year and the black line represents the Magic’s offense last year.

In the measurements Levy uses — ball movement (average touch time per team), player movement (average distance traveled per 24 seconds on offense), pace (average length of an offensive possession) and shot selection (percentage of shots that are threes, free throws or layups) — the Magic have seemingly improved in almost every measure.

They have increased their pace, player movement and shot selection over last year. It is no wonder their offense has seemingly taken a bit of a jump.

Specifically, in shot selection, the Magic have embraced more modern sensibilities there.

According to Ian Levy of Nylon Calculus, the Magic have increased the percentage of attempts that fit the “Moreyball” model from 53 to 71 percent of their shots. That is one of the largest increases in the league.

Orlando last year took 26.1 3-point attempts per game, making 32.8 percent. The Magic are at 29.2 per game this year, making 35.8 percent. That is hardly a seismic shift in 3-point attempts (the Magic ranked 15th in attempts per game last year just like this year). The Magic are making more of them.

Orlando is shooting 28.0 field goal attempts within five feet per game this year. Last year, the team took 27.0 such shots.

It does not seem there is much of a difference in these shot selections. The Magic are just much more efficient with these shots. Orlando’s offensive struggles are not it seems a product of poor shot selection. As Vogel promised, the Magic have become more modern in this way, even if the changes are subtle.

Of course, the chart above does not offer a full representation of an effective offense. Teams like the Golden State Warriors push the bounds of the graph. Whereas teams like the Minnesota Timberwolves hover in the middle. Both offenses have found success this year.

There is no one way to success.

If the Magic want to be more like the Warriors, it appears they are doing that. Now the trick is to be more effective with it. It is one thing to play this style, it is another to succeed in it.

Orlando has clearly been better offensively playing this style. But also clearly not good enough. Injuries certainly played a role. The Magic’s shooting remains a major issue to create space and effectiveness.

Next: OMD Facebook Live: Vogel or Vo-gone?

Orlando is still working to modernize itself and its roster. What little success it has had has been encouraging. But there is clearly still a long way to go.