Orlando Magic fans are resigned to the Draft Lottery and a high pick coming in to save them this year. Two wins this weekend changed the picture.
In the moment, nothing else mattered.
The fans in the Amway Center — those who had willingly paid to see the Orlando Magic take on the Memphis Grizzlies in one of the biggest tank games remaining on the season — were focused in on the final result.
Evan Fournier drained a 3-pointer with 22 seconds left to give the Magic a three-point lead. Then Jonathan Isaac blocked the game-tying three, recovering brilliantly after biting on a pump fake to change the shot and seal the victory.
The fans erupted. It felt like a Playoff game. The feeling inside the Amway Center was euphoric as Orlando extended its lead out to 107-100 for the final score.
Online and after the game, the discussion was much different. There was no celebration. Fans dead set on gaining as many ping pong balls were despondent — and, frankly, a bit angry.
The Magic’s two-game win streak “took their fate out of their hands” somehow. It was the wrong thing to do.
The short-term of a win might have made everyone happy in the building. It might have made for a lighter and happier locker room before a long West Coast road trip. But it is impossible not to recognize or to note the long-term consequences. At least for now.
Entering Friday’s game against the Detroit Pistons, the Orlando Magic were tied for the worst record in the league. That comes with a 25 percent chance at the top pick and a 64.1 percent chance at a top-three pick.
Following the two wins, in this tight race to the bottom, Orlando now is tied for the sixth-best odds for the top pick. That would come with an 18.2 percent chance at the top pick and a 5.3 percent chance at a top-three pick.
Those odds are very different. In whatever mock draft you believe, that is the difference between picking between Real Madrid wing Luka Doncic and Arizona Wildcats center Deandre Ayton and picking Texas Longhorns center Mohamed Bamba, Villanova Wildcats wing Mikal Bridges or Duke Blue Devils center Wendell Carter.
It is quite amazing how just two wins and two nights can change that outlook.
A lottery still determines top three picks. Odds are odds and merely chances of where a team will land. Outlooks for the offseason can change on the whims of chance.
That distant and uncertain future is the obsession of Magic fans right now. The amount of anger a certain portion of the fanbase has for winning right now comes from the hopelessness the last six years have brought. Orlando fans have lost a lot of faith in the team’s ability to draft and develop players. A top pick is the only salvation they see.
That is perfectly fair to feel, of course. What evidence is there that things will turn out for the better without that? It is the only way the Magic have built their contending teams in the past. They both came thanks to centers drafted with the top overall pick.
That is not the only path. though. And the Magic’s players and coaching staff, like those fans in the building, are not focused on that long-term future. Their responsibility is to each other and to their own futures. And their own futures rely on them playing well.
Jeff Weltman and John Hammond have both publicly stated their distaste for the perceived wave of tanking in the league. That is not a strategy they will pursue.
As they have said all year, they will use this year to evaluate their team. Maybe they can make conclusions, maybe they cannot. But they have a full season to complete things before getting down to remaking the team this summer — with whatever assets they have.
And coach Frank Vogel reiterated again after Saturday’s win that his goal is to help the team build a winning culture. He is driving his team to win games. And the players are not stopping any time soon.
Still, it is impossible not to consider the long-term implications of these short-term victories. The standings are so bunched up, each win dramatically shifts the bottom of the standings and the order in which teams might pick.
So long as there is the incentive to lose, there will be teams seeking to maximize those chances. Someone, despite Adam Silver’s protests, will try to game the system. And some team will likely benefit.
It is all out of their control. And for the players on the team and the coaching staff, they are focused on what they can control. It seems management is too, working behind the scenes to rebuild the team’s development culture.
Will the Magic’s two wins be meaningful this weekend? It is hard to say that it will.
The season has long been lost. Orlando’s “tragic” number for Playoff elimination is seven — seven Orlando Magic losses or seven Miami Heat wins. The most wins Orlando could tally this year is 39.
And that is not happening. The team that makes the Playoffs will surely have more than 40.
Orlando Magic
Will there be some carryover to next year? That is also hard to say. The failures this year suggest Weltman has to begin flipping over the roster. He said as much in trading Elfrid Payton and saying the Magic could not continually invest in a group that clearly does not work.
Then again, Vogel credited the team’s hot start to the chemistry build up in the way the team finished last year. And, in reality, the Magic lost nothing by winning games to end last season. They fell one spot in the lottery odds after the All-Star Break and probably would have picked Jonathan Isaac anyway.
Ultimately, no one knows what the future will hold.
There is reason and rationale to be angry with wins at this point. The Magic are playing in an imperfect system and the impetus to accept losing is strong. Momentary joys do not cover up the big problems this franchise still needs to solve.
Next: Grades: Orlando Magic 107, Memphis Grizzlies 100
The team though is going to keep fighting. And so in the bubble of each individual game, a win can provide a little bit of joy and a little bit of hope for a better future and a better now.