2018 NBA Prospect Report Part 2: Trae Young
Analyzing Fit
Point blank, the Orlando Magic need a point guard. Trae Young fits that bill. Easy decision, right?
It is a little more complicated than that. The main issue is there are very few surrounding pieces on this roster conducive to his success. The second is his limited size and poor defense do not seem to fit into the identity of the team Jeff Weltman and John Hammond want to build.
Young would fit best on a roster with a quality defender next to him in the backcourt, pick-and-roll weapons (like a rim-running big or pop threat) and shooters to space the floor. The Magic lack pretty much all of those things at this point.
He would either be tasked with an immense self-creation load in an offense that continues to struggle with spacing, or he would be forced to generate value without the ball, as a cutter or shooter off screens and spot-ups, which is not currently his forte by any stretch.
The Sooners may lack secondary creation, but they have multiple 40 percent 3-point shooters on the roster that gives Young ample space to operate inside the arc. They have players capable of finishing his passes on cuts, dump-offs and kick-outs and making help defense costlier.
Perhaps most importantly, they have an offensive scheme tailored to putting Young into advantageous situations. All of these things have led to his impressive counting stats.
A similar situation may exist in the NBA. But as much as they need a point guard, that is not where the Magic are right now.
Orlando Magic
Concerns about Young’s size and defense have been well-documented. But it is difficult to see how Young becomes anything but a liability on that end. He has shown decent anticipation skills, occasionally getting steals and deflections. But he does not have the size, strength or instincts to put up resistance against most offensive players. He will get stronger, but so will his opponents at the next level.
His off-ball attentiveness is also spotty. And he tends to freelance, helping off his man in hopes of making plays on the ball. He does not have the quickness or burst to help and recover, so he gets burned when he sags too much.
Additionally, he struggles to fight over screens, often turning pick-and-rolls and off-ball screens into low-resistance switches. All of these habits, while fixable, pose significant problems for team defense.
But his length is not fixable and given Hammond and Weltman’s draft history, may dampen the Magic’s enthusiasm about Young’s overall potential.
It is hard to discern who will or will not be on the roster next season. But it is safe to assume Young will not have the same astronomic 40 percent usage rate in his rookie year whether he is on the Magic or not.
Because he has not yet proven he can make an impact without the ball in his hands, because his defense will be a massive liability and because his on-ball impact will be both less efficient (because he will be a rookie in the NBA with an ill-fitting roster) and less voluminous (because he will be a rookie in the NBA with other point guards on the roster), his avenues for success in Orlando are fewer than they might be elsewhere.
Trae Young could certainly find heaps of success in Orlando in the long term, and the nominal fit makes sense. But this draft is full of well-rounded players at every position. Depending on where the Magic end up drafting and who is available, a player with more avenues for success — one who could contribute defensive and/or off-ball value early on — might make more sense.
All that said, when you draft in the top five, sometimes the best pick is simply taking the best player available regardless of fit. That could very well be Trae Young.
His scoring and creation equity make him one of the most tantalizing prospects in the 2018 draft class and would fill multiple needs for the Magic, even if he would personally be more successful elsewhere.
Next: NBA Draft Prospect Profile: Deandre Ayton
Only time will tell where Young ends up. But the Magic will, and should, have their eyes on him.