2018 NBA Prospect Report Part 1: DeAndre Ayton
Posting Up
Deandre Ayton has been nearly unstoppable on the low block this season because of his quick feet, strength, coordination and passing ability.
He knows how to leverage his lower body to get position wherever he wants on the court. He can use his long arms to make himself a huge target for a post entry pass. And if an early double comes, he recognizes it and handles it with composure.
Take the above clip for example. Although he does not get the ball initially with the mismatch, watch how large his catch radius is despite the defense fronting him.
More importantly, he recognizes the weakside help arriving immediately. Without even fully setting his feet, Ayton dodges the help defender’s steal attempt and fires off a high-velocity pass right on the money to a corner shooter. The ball lands right in the shooter’s pocket and the defense has no chance to close out in time.
This video illustrates the tension Ayton can both apply to a defense and exploit. He draws a double and forces a strongside zone, leaving two defenders guarding three offensive players on the weak side. He diagnoses this seam immediately and launches a bullet pass for an assist.
Similar concept in this clip, except it is a weak-side zone. Watch how focused the UNLV Rebels’ defense is on Ayton as soon as the entry pass is made. All five defenders are in the paint once he touches the ball.
Another assist:
The numbers bare this out as well.
According to Synergy Sports, Ayton generates 1.529 points per possession when the defense commits on his post-up possessions. Including passes, he generates 1.372 on hard doubles. Both of those numbers are far better than average in both the NCAA and NBA.
However, about 82 percent of his post passes have been to standstill teammates on the perimeter. He has only made six passes to cutters out of the post, and although the conversion rate on those is impressive (zero turnovers and 1.5 points per possession), that low number begs the question of how effectively he is able to make passes either within an offensive scheme or with freelance motion.
His post scoring is perhaps more impressive at this stage than his post passing. Ayton is light on his feet and moves them with a purpose. He understands when to use a dribble to get his defender moving laterally and when to leverage lower body to back his man down.
Once he creates an advantage, he usually moves quickly and efficiently to exploit it. If there is no advantage, he identifies an open man on the perimeter and kicks it back out. He wastes very little time and movement on the low block.
In this clip, Ayton gets the ball on the right block. Watch how he recognizes the help defender and avoids losing the ball, gets his defender moving laterally with a jab step then takes it to the rack:
He is guilty of sometimes settling for shaky face-up jumpers, which he has far too quick a trigger on considering his mediocre 0.813 points per possession rate on those shots.
He is currently in the 91st percentile of efficiency scoring on post-ups. But when finishing in the pick and roll, he is only in the 45th percentile, which is surprisingly average for a player who checks most of the important rim-runner boxes.
Is that a hole in his game, or will that improve at the next level?