Due to a plethora of injuries, the Orlando Magic have been forced to play many lineups and have had very little success. What might they need to do differently to have more success?
Injuries are commonplace in the NBA. The Orlando Magic this year have been reminded of this lesson on a frequent basis.
The Orlando Magic own the distinction of having the second-most different starting lineups this season trailing on the LA Clippers. Most of those lineups were changed because of injuries. Only once did coach Frank Vogel make a strategic change to the lineup. But unlike the Clippers the Magic have found extremely little success with these different lineups.
Now some may suggest this is due to talent level. The Clippers’ roster is far more talented than the Magic’s, to some extent. The two teams and situations are not directly comparable.
Still, Orlando has had some issues with its starting lineup. According to NBA.com’s lineup data, the Magic’s best starting lineup featured D.J. Augustin, Evan Fournier, Terrence Ross, Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic. That is the starting lineup when the Magic started out 8-4. Orlando has been unable to recreate the chemistry of that group.
Only three other lineups posted a positive net rating. And they were cut down by injuries before they could develop a rhythm.
The problem the Magic face is a difficult one in many regards.
First, Orlando’s roster lacks depth. Sustaining long-term injuries to almost every day one rotation player has really hurt Orlando. They have been forced to play guys that were supposed to just be mentors or players that received spot minutes heavily and sometimes in that starting lineup.
The season has not gone as the team envisioned. The Magic have had, at times, to put together makeshift lineups. No one will use it as an excuse. But they have had to ask the next man up too many times from players who, quite simply, are not meant for those roles.
Secondly, Orlando’s roster is very flawed from a construction standpoint. Former general manager Rob Hennigan’s last stand irreparably harmed the team and set them back multiple years. Long-term contracts to players who cannot play both ends of the floor have really limited Orlando’s ability to succeed.
Orlando Magic
And lastly? Quite frankly, Vogel is a bit stubborn and slow to adjust his rotations. Many Indiana Pacers fans warned Orlando Magic fans about his side of Vogel when he was hired. Vogel is a fine coach in many aspects, but his lack of willingness to shake up his rotations or try and stagger lineups hurts himself as well as his players. Especially with a roster that is not nearly as talented and cohesive as his Pacers teams of the past.
The most egregious example of this can be found in Vogel’s decision to play Elfrid Payton and Jonathon Simmons together.
Most Magic observers notice both Elfrid Payton and Jonathon Simmons provide extremely similar uses on offense. Both Payton and Simmons need the ball in their hands to be successful. And both have struggled defensively this season — despite decent defensive reputations.
According to NBA.com, lineups that feature both Payton and Simmons rate out as the 10th worst lineup in the entire NBA in terms of net rating, falling at -9.2 points per 100 possessions in 662 minutes.
Orlando’s offense with those two on the floor owns an offensive rating of 105.4 points per 100 possessions and a defensive rating of 114.6! That defensive rating is the fourth-worst two-man ranking in the league.
While Orlando will not likely solve its defensive problems by splitting these two up (Orlando’s defense is just bad in general), the team could solve its offensive woes by doing so.
At the very least, this is ample evidence that there might be some change worth trying.
With Nikola Vucevic out the Magic have consistently gone with the starting lineup of Elfrid Payton, Jonathon Simmons, Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon and Bismack Biyombo. This lineup has not been successful in its 127 minutes together. Orlando posts a net rating of -6.1 points per 100 possessions. The offense and defense both struggle mightily, Orlando slows its pace and the team just cannot shoot or space the floor.
Starting Mario Hezonja might alleviate these problems for many reasons. Since joining the rotation, Mario Hezonja is averaging 11.8 points per game and shooting 47.8 percent from the floor and 33.8 percent from beyond the arc.
Hezonja has shown a significant amount of improvement this season on both ends of the floor. While Hezonja still has not regained his knockdown shooter status, he is much more of a threat off the ball than Simmons.
Hezonja is not much of a shot creator. He plays very well off of others and really likes to keep the ball moving. In contrast, Jonathon Simmons is very much a self-shot creator. In fact, it is probably what he does best on offense. Simmons uses his handles and his herky-jerky movement consistently to beat defenders to either the rim or to his favorite pull up mid-range shot.
While Simmons has struggled this season, there is obviously a role for him on this team as a volume scoring sixth man thanks to his shot creation. But, as of right now, Vogel has hurt Simmons by turning him into more of a spot-up shooter with Orlando’s offensive lineup which is already filled with ball handlers and scorers.
Simmons hits on 40.9 percent of his spot-up shots, scoring 1.05 points per possession on spot-up possessions on 2.7 field goal attempts per game. Last year with the San Antonio Spurs, Simmons did not even register a spot-up possession in NBA.com’s database. This is uncharted territory for Simmons.
And Vogel is certainly experimenting. The trick is knowing when to break off that experiment or scale it back.
There are other examples of Vogel’s rigidity, including his decision to continue to rely on Marreese Speights, even though he leaks points faster than he throws up shots and is struggling to make shots at the moment — 37.3 percent shooting in his last 11 games. But that is a minor complaint.
The bigger issue, which has been an issue with the Magic for awhile is simply lineup construction. The Magic do not do a good job of playing players that have complementary skill sets together.
Some lineups have too many ball handlers, other lineups have no spacing. Other lineups have four out of five guys playing out of position. Some of these things fall on the roster construction. But the excuses run thin with the addition of two-way contracts to help bolster rosters and a supposedly deep team.
It seems at times Vogel prefers to rely on trust or perceived talent than fit or feel for his lineups. And sometimes, as was the case with his early Indiana teams it works out for him.
But in his later years with the Pacers, and now with the Magic, it is hurting him and his players. And Vogel has struggled to find answers even when he does change things up or mix up his rotations.
Next: Orlando Magic Daily Roundtable: Midseason Misgivings
There is no doubt the Magic are a bad basketball team, injuries or not. But, this team needs to do better for its players. If they do that, their players may do better for them.