Expect the Orlando Magic to deal away some veterans, build around Aaron Gordon, and examine their young players as the team rebuilds again in 2018.
In what has become an annual tradition since Dwight Howard left town during the summer of 2012, the Orlando Magic are now shifting from chasing the playoffs to preparing for the future.
An early clue to this shift is the fact the Magic recently discussed a deal with the Detroit Pistons centered around dealing Evan Fournier for rookie Luke Kennard and Reggie Jackson’s contract. It is trade season and the Magic are selling once again.
During the first few seasons following Howard’s departure, those shifts happened very early in the season as the Magic were not equipped to contend for the playoffs without some years explicitly used for rebuilding.
But during these past few years, the Magic have harbored some playoff hopes for a few weeks or even months at the start of the year before having those hopes wrecked.
This time around, the Magic unsustainably shot the lights out for the first month of the season and benefited from some opponent injury luck before the wheels fell off.
Injuries have, of course, played a very major role in derailing the team. Almost every important rotation player missing large chunks of time. But negative signs and confounding losses were present even before injuries put the nail in the coffin for this season.
Most notably, whenever adversity arose, the ball often stopped moving as players resorted to isolation basketball. They either still do not quite trust head coach Frank Vogel’s systems, or, as (relatively) young players still trying to make their marks in the league, are more concerned with proving themselves than with team goals, a completely understandable mindset for players trying to earn large contracts.
Whether you believe the Magic are actually a playoff team when healthy or they are fundamentally flawed, the fact is their record is now 12-28. The mathematics of qualifying for the playoffs do not look good, especially with Nikola Vucevic, Terrence Ross and Jonathan Isaac still out for the foreseeable future.
It is likely the Magic will start to play out the rest of the season with an eye toward the future.
In a way, the spate of injuries this season might have been a blessing in disguise. That is, if you believe the team is fundamentally flawed, to begin with.
If the Magic experienced league-average health so far, it is possible the offensive ceiling from the start of the season would have masked some of those flaws, resurfacing often enough to steal some games and take advantage of soft spots in the schedule. It could have led the Magic to make “win-now” moves before the February trade deadline instead of honestly seeing the team for what it is.
It is likely true the Magic are not actually as bad as a 12-28 record would usually indicate. But the injuries eliminated any chance of the high offensive ceiling randomly resurfacing to artificially inflate the team’s perception of itself. It accelerated the team towards better NBA Draft lottery odds.
The injury-induced losing is not easy to stomach. The Magic will not get to make a plucky and surprising run to the postseason.
But an honest rebuild increases the chances of sustainable winning later. It also provides first-year front office executives John Hammond and Jeff Weltman a chance to make their own evaluations of the current roster and to then remake according to their wishes.
So, what could playing for the future look like this season? It is always painful to make that transition in a season that starts off with some hope. But it looks increasingly like what the front office should and will do.
When rebuilding, teams often try to kill two birds with one stone. They lose games in order to boost draft lottery odds. And there are some good prizes in this year’s draft class. And they develop young talent for the future. Or at least they find out which young talent is worth developing.
For the Magic, that young talent includes players like Jonathan Isaac, Khem Birch, Wesley Iwundu and possibly Adreian Payne and Jamel Artis. Providing them with longer leashes down the stretch allows them to learn from mistakes they will inevitably commit during their first extended NBA reps. It ensures a high draft slot for the Magic come late June.
The team will likely be cautious with Isaac as he recovers from an ankle injury that is not healing as quickly as expected. Isaac would benefit from NBA reps as any young player would. But his health is the more important issue right now.
Expect a couple of useful veteran players on fair contracts (such as Nikola Vucevic, Evan Fournier, Terrence Ross, Elfrid Payton, Jonathon Simmons) to be traded away to playoff-contending teams who are looking to make “win-now” moves (and are therefore willing to part with future-boosting assets like young players and draft picks).
If the the Magic do not deal the currently injured Vucevic and Ross, they will take their time in bringing them back from injury. Both for health and (other) player development reasons.
Aaron Gordon’s emergence this year as a potential All-Star makes him the player the Magic are least likely to trade. The Magic likely will attempt to build the roster around him.
Everyone except him and Isaac will be fair game at the deadline.
That includes Mario Hezonja. Hezonja could still re-sign with the Magic, but given the current front office did not draft him and the fact he has underachieved relative to his draft position, the odds are against Mario Hezonja returning to Orlando next season. Look for the Magic to “showcase” Hezonja in January to see if any teams are willing to trade for him.
Heavy minutes for Hezonja in the next few weeks makes a lot of sense. If he plays relatively poorly, the Magic will continue to lose games and improve 2018 draft position. If he plays well enough to draw interest from other teams, the Magic can salvage some value for their investment in him.
Those are a lot of “ifs.”
The Magic have not progressed this season like they would have liked. But there is still a lot to learn and accomplish in the new year.
Next: Self-inflicted wounds haunt Orlando Magic
Most of it is in development of the Magic’s young assets.