The Orlando Magic must explore their late-game options
The Orlando Magic have struggled to close their last two games. A dive into the stats reveal why they struggle and why they must explore their late options.
The most “clutch” shot of the Orlando Magic’s season likely came in the third game of the year against the Brooklyn Nets. Or against the Memphis Grizzlies.
It was virtually the same play. Or at least the same shot.
Aaron Gordon popping open for a 3-pointer with the game on the line. A shot that no one felt confident he could make in those early season games.
Aaron Gordon delivered on both occasions, playing off others and finding open space at the 3-point line. Against the Nets, it was Nikola Vucevic driving off a kick out to find Aaron Gordon for three.
Against, the Grizzlies, it was much the same. Evan Fournier came around the double screen that helped the Orlando Magic win their opener against the Miami Heat and fed Aaron Gordon popping out to the corner.
This was the Magic’s execution at its best late in the game. All these plays — the Nets, Grizzlies and Heat — came off brilliant execution. The drive and kick game and opportunism that comes from a team in sync. A confident team that was learning how to finish.
Like the Magic’s 8-4 record at the time of these games, that seems oh so long ago. The thought of the Magic closing out games strong and confidently has quickly dissipated, headlined by two difficult performances against the Heat and Nets. Two teams the Magic beat late earlier in the season.
The plain fact is the Magic have been bad in close games this year. In fact, the Magic have had troubles getting into close games this year. That is not a good sign that has sunk so low in the standings.
And the team has to find some new answers in these close games. Perhaps not anything drastically new, but they should run their offense and get the best shot, looking for other options.
The problem for the Magic of late has been how the team succumbs to isolation. Players seem to force play rather than execute an offense to get a good shot. That might explain the Magic’s poor performance late in games.
Plays like the one the Magic had late in the game against the Nets were emblematic of the team’s stagnation late in the game.
Orlando has played in only 16 “clutch” games according to NBA.com (that is, games within five points in the final five minutes). In those games, the Magic are 6-10. Hardly “clutch” but a somewhat respectable record if you believe teams should finish .500 in close games.
But the net rating there is extremely poor. In these “clutch” minutes, the Magic have a -16.8 net rating, giving up a terrible 122.4 defensive rating in close games. Orlando’s problems late in games appear to come more on the defensive end rather than on offense (their 105 offensive rating late in games is surprisingly only slightly lower than the team’s average).
The breakdown of where those shots come from and the efficiency of those shots reveal some interesting patterns.
Evan Fournier leads the team with 2.3 points per game in clutch situations, according to NBA.com. But unlike previous seasons, he is struggling to shoot. He is shooting just 34.8 percent in clutch situations with a 43.5 percent effective field goal percentage. Four of his eight field goal makes in these minutes have been 3-pointers.
Fournier, of course, has earned some trust late in games. Last year, he was one of the most efficient players late in games with a 56.3 percent effective field goal percentage. This season appears to be a return to the mean.
The question then is where else the Magic should turn? Fournier has taken most of the team’s clutch shots this year — 23 of the team’s 81 field goal attempts in clutch situations this year — and has not done so efficiently.
It would seem the Magic should at least explore focusing on other players.
That process seems already underway. Down by three points late in Saturday’s loss to the Heat, the Magic drew up a play to get Gordon a 3-pointer at the top of the key. Despite missing the shot, it was executed perfectly and Gordon took an open 3-pointer.
Orlando Magic
No complaints about that shot. And like those early-season plays, Gordon has been strong late in games, suggesting the Magic should work to create plays for him or make plays that free him up.
Gordon is second on the team in “clutch” field goal attempts with 12, making six of them. That is hardly a large enough sample size and he is just 2 for 7 from beyond the arc. That suggests getting him the ball in more normal situations — or using their defense to get out in transition — to get Gordon more shots. Nikola Vucevic made seven of his 12 shots in clutch situations.
Elfrid Payton is 6 for 9 in late-game situations and Jonathon Simmons is 3 for 10.
The samples are incredibly small as the Magic have played only 16 close games in 38 total games so far. And clearly, the direction they are going right now does not seem to be working effectively.
Fournier has a long-established building of trust late in games. He is still the best bet late in games with his versatility and ability to break down a defense in the pick and roll. But he still has to be smarter with his decision making late in games.
If the rest of this season is about exploring what Aaron Gordon can do, it seems as though getting him more involved late in close games is warranted. He has proven he can hit big shots in these big moments. Maybe it is time to increase the workload.
The Magic have to get themselves into close games first. That has to be part of the solution too. There is no winning close games without playing close games in the first place.
Next: OMD Podcast: Rock Bottom with Chris Barnewall
When Orlando gets there, the team can clearly explore a few more options and get better shots. Where the team turns will be the bigger question.