Evan Fournier suffers another dropoff after strong start

Evan Fournier got off to a blistering start. But like he has in previous seasons (even before his injury), he has slowed down once again.

The world is not flat after all. Kahwi Leonard is human. Bitcoin has not replaced actual money.

And the Orlando Magic are not a top Eastern Conference team. They are not even a playoff team.

The Magic may as well have the word “tease” plastered across their chests to start the season. On Nov. 1, their record was 6-2. On Nov. 10, they were 8-4. In the 37 days since the Magic have won three games. They have lost 17. That includes a nine-game losing streak and a current slide of six and counting.

So, the familiar has returned. The Magic occupy their usual 12th spot in the East, below even the lowly Brooklyn Nets and only a single win ahead of the usually-solid Charlotte Hornets. Orlando’s defense is 27th in the league.

It would be very easy to simply leave it there. After all, it is a show that has been seen before.

But there is also the question no one really wants to ask too loudly.

What the hell happened?

Well, a bunch of stuff. Injuries are an easy culprit. The hot shooting disappeared. Aaron Gordon shot 59.1 percent from three in his first five games. So far in December, he is shooting 29.7 percent. And the rest of the league just kind of got its act together.

And then there is Evan Fournier. Before his current ankle sprain, he was a focus for the team — its top scorer returning to efficiency. But also a player experiencing the same fall to earth as the rest of the team.

Back when the Magic were riding high, it was Aaron Gordon who got the lion’s share of the praise, and deservedly so. But Evan Fournier did not go lacking either. Through the first nine games, Fournier had scored less than 20 points only once, and he shot worse than 30 percent just once. He had missed precisely one free throw. Things were good.

Orlando Magic

And they stayed good. Mostly.

There was a 6-point game against the Boston Celtics. A 0-7 from the arc game against the Phoenix Suns. A couple of back-to-back 30-percent shooting nights.

The Magic fans who had been calling for Fournier to make the All-Star squad this year, may have begun to question themselves. But surely, these were outliers. Blips on the radar.

And they were, to a point. Fournier still only has two single-figure scoring games on the season (both against Boston). He has not had more than three turnovers since early November. More than an outright dive in production, cracks just started to show. His true shooting percentage began whittling down. His plus/minus steadily dropped as the team struggled more. Perhaps the most obvious difference was his 3-point shot, which fell to 34.7 percent in November.

Never known as a defensive stalwart, Fournier’s defensive rating numbers also dropped off, used by some as a clear indicator of effort.

In fairness to him, his numbers are solid through four games in December, but they are only four games. And with an ankle injury to boot, it looks as though Fournier’s solid start might have hit a premature, if somewhat meandering, end.

Injuries have a tendency to do that. And the Magic have clearly suffered since Fournier’s injury as the team scrambles to replace his production and his shooting. It is simply, no matter how that player is playing, hard to replace a guy averaging 18.3 points per game and still hitting 41.5 percent of his 3-point shots.

The thing is, Fournier’s December tail off should not be surprising. Just like every bubble gum in the packet loses its flavor, Fournier has pulled this trick before.

Last year, almost across all categories was the same pattern: a good start, followed by a large dip in the middle of the season, with something approaching the same as the start by the end. Mostly anyway, assists and defensive rating only got worse, a product of how poor the team was around him too.

Fournier averaged 17.8 points per game in October, November and December last year, making 45.5 percent of his shots overall. But a slow January with injuries knocked him off kilter.

The 2016 season showed the exact same thing in terms of points, defensive rating and rebounds (although his shooting overall did improve throughout the year). He averaged 17.2 points per game in October and November before struggling through December (the Magic’s hot streak that year) with 11.6 points per game and then in January through the losing streak with 12.2 points per game.

His first season with the Magic in 2015 is perhaps the most definitive example. In the first two months, Fournier averaged 15.4 points a game. By February he was down to 8.7.

Similarly, his 3-point percentage in the same time period went from 43.5 percent to 32.0 percent. The evidence leads to the same conclusion that is made every year:

Evan Fournier starts out well and then loses it.

Does the blame for this lie entirely at Fournier’s feet? No, of course not.

During his early tenure with Orlando, especially when Victor Oladipo and Scott Skiles were around, Evan Fournier (and others’) minutes and starts were so erratic it is no wonder anybody could find their shot. Was Fournier the starter or a spark off the bench? Was he the shooter or the scorer? The long-term man or the quick fix? He did not know. They did not know.

Having said that, in the last two seasons at least the problem has been rendered moot, and yet the transgression sticks.

Still, Fournier himself does figure largely into the problem. There could be a few subcategories here:

Fatigue: As with a lot of European players, Fournier has always had a heavy slate. Playing for France in various international competitions takes a heavy toll. Again, that has not been a problem of late, but perhaps physical exhaustion is still the elephant in the room regardless. A NBA season is no joke, and Fournier relies very heavily on running around screens and hard drives to the basket in order to get his shots.

Mentality: Some players just play better when they are winning. Simple fact. Whether it is relieved stress, extra motivation or purely because some players need a winning system in order to be able to contribute

Perhaps Fournier can be categorized thus: when everything is new and fresh, he can play at 100 percent. But when losses start mounting and a playoff seed drifts off into the unknown again, he cannot summon the enthusiasm. Or bring other players to his level or get set up the way he needs.

Guessing on a player’s mentality and effort is a fool’s game, but the numbers do not lie. This trend happens again and again, and it is not like the team’s fortunes have managed to change in the same timeline. Surely, after yet another disappointing season, the Magic will not expect for the same squad to produce different results.

Fournier may only be 25, but the time waiting for this group to grow up has passed.

Next: Orlando Magic lacking fight and everyone knows it

And in Fournier’s case, constant teases are not a worthwhile replacement for a winning team.