There were high hopes for Elfrid Payton entering this season. But he has struggled to be consistent and his play has stagnated at the worst time.
The flash is blinding and promising.
When Elfrid Payton is running downhill with aggression in his eyes and open lane in front of him, he is a blur. Defenses have no chance but to backpedal and wait for Payton to make his move. Lay off him and hope he shoots, essentially.
Because with every bit of space a team gives him, he will take it. And if help tries to come to stop him, he will dish it off somewhere open. His talent is apparent as the pace picks up and he leaves defenses behind him.
The best moments of the Orlando Magic’s woeful game against the Chicago Bulls on Wednesday came when Payton had the ball, attacking the open floor. He dominated parts of that game as the Magic made their last push. Taking the ball out of his hands actually hurt the team.
Payton’s 14 points, six rebounds and eight assists had him on early triple-double watch for the first time since late November. It was a refreshing change for a player who has struggled in this important season for him and his career.
If this year is the evaluation of Elfrid Payton and the point where the Magic determine his future, it is hard to get a sense of what to make of Payton.
The one thing that is clear? A now-four-year starter, Payton often fades into the background. The play that had everyone excited to end last season — remember that 13.5 points, 7.0 rebounds and 8.4 assists per game 25-game run? — has not come so often this year.
And the leader the Magic need right now has not appeared either.
Payton is the starting point guard for the Magic. The fact this feels like a question after four years and NBA journeyman D.J. Augustin behind him probably says more than anything else.
The restlessness to fill this position has started to rival Nikola Vucevic at center. As much as anything a representation of the Magic’s need to flip things over and change their core has come to flipping over the point guard decision. Even the fans frustrated the Magic did not draft dynamic scoring guard Dennis Smith Jr. are ready to come out of the woodworks.
And all of it is warranted. Payton, a four-year starter, has failed to take hold of his spot and the team. In a contract year, no less, Payton has failed to establish himself and failed to be the leader the team needs.
The losing streak is not wholly on Payton. Not at all. But the team’s inability to run a consistent offense or get themselves out of this rut falls on its leadership. And if the point guard is supposed to be a leader, the finger has to point to Payton.
This year, Payton is averaging 11.0 points per game, 6.3 assists per game and 3.6 rebounds per game. He is shooting a better 49.5 percent from the floor and 36.4 percent from beyond the arc. The issue is not even his shooting anymore. Not entirely, at least.
There are positive signs from Payton. But his overall numbers have remained largely flat. His scoring is down from last year. His assists are roughly his career averages. And his impact on the floor is also relatively flat.
His PER is down to 15.7, only slightly above average. His box plus-minus is -0.4. The Magic have a -4.4 net rating with Payton on the floor and a -3.6 net rating with him off the floor. That is enough to say Payton is good enough, but probably not good enough to make any lasting or noticeable impact.
Those are just numbers though.
Payton was not a player who can get encapsulated by numbers. His poor shooting seemingly prevented that. It was about the general positive effect he brought the team. Even last year, that effect was clear.
That effect has been less clear this year. If it exists at all. And for a player in Payton’s position, that is unacceptable.
The Magic have been without a leader at point guard. When things are seemingly going off the rails, they have been without a player to bring them back from the abyss. On both ends.
Payton is a young player at 23 years old. It is tough to ask him to be a complete leader for this team. But he is also a four-year starter now. He is a player who should have a mastery of his teammates and the confidence to take over.
And yet it feels like the team lacks a rudder.
Young players are expected to progress, even if it is slowly. They are expected to get better. And when they get playing time, that should speed the process up. Payton has largely spent his entire career as the Magic’s starting point guard. He was the hill former general manager Rob Hennigan was seemingly willing to die on.
Orlando staked a lot of its future on Payton. He had a setback, particularly defensively his second year. And while Payton has built himself back up, he has not demonstrably improved on that end from his rookie year. He remains a weak link there.
But it was his leadership and offensive ability that gave him staying power. He was the best playmaker on the team. Orlando hoped and believed he would grow into the rest of the responsibilities that come with playing point guard.
Instead, it seems he has become more invisible.
This is not how a four-year starter should play. When things go wrong, this is when a point guard’s natural leadership should come to the fore. And yet, this is when it seems Payton disappears more. Or if he does not disappear, he does not bring everyone else up with him.
That was always supposed to be what Payton was best at. He would be the one to bring everyone up with him. And when things get tough, that is the kind of point guard they need to turn to.
It is the point guard the Magic do not have. Orlando will need everyone to step up to survive these injuries. And they are not getting what they need at point guard.
Time is running out for Payton. That should be easy to sense. The Magic will need a more consistent effort on both ends from Payton. The kind of effort you would expect to see from a team leader.
Next: Orlando Magic Playbook: The Power of Switching
That will be a big step toward turning the season around.