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Orlando Magic Daily Roundtable: Surprises, what lasts and what’s next

By Philip Rossman-Reich

The Orlando Magic's Evan Fournier (10) yells as he is fouled by the New York Knicks' Doug McDermott, left, at the Amway Center in Orlando, Fla., on Wednesday, Nov. 8, 2017. (Stephen M. Dowell/Orlando Sentinel/TNS via Getty Images)
The Orlando Magic's Evan Fournier (10) yells as he is fouled by the New York Knicks' Doug McDermott, left, at the Amway Center in Orlando, Fla., on Wednesday, Nov. 8, 2017. (Stephen M. Dowell/Orlando Sentinel/TNS via Getty Images) /
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Orlando Magic, Miami Heat
ORLANDO, FL – OCTOBER 18: Nikola Vucevic #9 of the Orlando Magic and Hassan Whiteside #21 of the Miami Heat jump for the tip off to start the game between the two teams on October 18, 2017 at the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Gary Bassing/NBAE via Getty Images) /

Have your expectations for this team changed? What is the Orlando Magic’s new realistic goal?

Scricca: My expectation was between 29-35 wins, which is admittedly a pretty wide range. But I do not think that has changed for me. Last year’s team had a point differential of a 24-win team, so if this team even wins 30, that would be a huge improvement. I have not changed my 29-35 expectation but I am definitely leaning closer to 35 than I was before.

Holmes: I do not think my expectations have changed massively but maybe increased a little. I was in the 32-33 wins category before. I think it is realistic after this start and the way the East has played out in general so far to bump that number to 36-38. I still think this team has a losing streak in it somewhere down the road. It will be interesting to see how they can respond to that. We have seen just how important Elfrid Payton is to the way the Orlando Magic want to play. I think after the hot start without him, other teams were starting to figure the Magic out. If Orlando loses Elfrid Payton or Nikola Vucevic for any considerable time, it would be hard to remain competitive on a consistent basis.

Treadway: Going into the season I was cautiously optimistic about this team liking the improvements to the roster and believing that they could open some eyes. I had their win total at between 38-40 wins, higher than most people. And I have to say, I think it has improved, not by much, but definitely improved. If this team can stay healthy, I think they have a chance to push for 42-44 wins. Maybe I am still being overly optimistic, but they have shown they can win big games early in the year.

Chen: FiveThirtyEight’s models project the Magic to finish 42-40 and have a 65 percent chance to make the playoffs. I think that is a bit too optimistic as an average finish, but I could see the Magic topping out at around 42 wins. Something like 38 wins is probably where I would set the over/under right now.

The Magic have also gotten relatively lucky with some scheduling and injuries: the San Antonio Spurs were without Kawhi Leonard, the Memphis Grizzlies were without Mike Conley, the New York Knicks were without Kristaps Porzingis, the Cleveland Cavaliers are still figuring things out early on. Those wins are good in the mathematical sense of trying to make the playoffs, but they might not be true indications of how good the Magic actually are.

Rossman-Reich: As I have said on Locked On Magic for much of the last week, I think you can raise your expectations up a notch. It is still early in the season and, as Magic fans know from 2016, a lot can still happen.

Still, I had this team as a 35-win team and just missing the Playoffs. I thought the expectation was to play meaningful games into March. And, more than that, the goal was to define its future beyond this year. The real goal for the season is to figure out which players to keep and which ones need to move on.

But this fast start has surprised everyone and made it look like there is more to this core than previously thought. I think you can, at this point in the season, bump your expectations up a notch. The Magic have had some really impressive wins already. So I think the expectation now is to make the Playoffs.