The Orlando Magic sorely miss Elfrid Payton’s attacking

Elfrid Payton is among the NBA’s elite at getting to and finishing around the rim. Add in his playmaking and rebounding, and Payton’s return will be a sight for sore eyes.

It is often hard to quantify Elfrid Payton’s impact offensively. Especially considering his poor shooting. Much of the focus tends to go to Payton’s individual statistics and whether Payton can give the team anything on his own offensively.

He does not play like a modern point guard, able to score and keep defenses off balance with his driving and finishing ability.

In every way but one. And an important one for the Orlando Magic.

Since the start of the 2016 season, the Magic shoot at the rim a paltry 24.7 percent of the time when Payton sits.

That is a full three percentage points lower than the league’s current worst mark, held by the struggling Sacramento Kings.

With Payton on the court, that number jumps to 33 percent, which is around league average.

The Magic tore off some excellent wins with Payton sidelined. But with D.J. Augustin joining Elfrid Payton on the bench, point guard issues came back to bite the Orlando Magic against the Chicago Bulls and Boston Celtics. Their pace and assist numbers dropped noticeably in a pair of stale, stagnant offensive performances.

It is a welcome sign that it appears Payton is close to returning from the hamstring strain that has knocked him out of the last eight games. It appears Payton is set to return to the court Wednesday against the New York Knicks.

D.J. Augustin had done a good job keeping the team in its offense in Elfrid Payton’s stead, and his shooting helped with their halfcourt spacing. His importance to the rotation is clear.

But even with Augustin, they were tied for the league’s second-lowest frequency of shots at the rim. The Magic’s offense has relied disproportionately on long midrange shots for its success.

That is not a recipe for sustainability. It was no surprise to see the team return to the mean. Orlando needs to find a way to get to the rim.

Payton is the clearest, most immediate solution.

Last season, Payton got 48 percent of his non-garbage time shots at the rim — good for the league’s 98th percentile. He made 59 percent of those shots — good for the league’s 73rd percentile.

This is all to say, Payton made a living getting to the rim. It was the key to his offensive success. And with his passing ability, it is a great way to collapse the defense to create for others.

Payton is still a flawed player. But those are some undeniably elite numbers. For reference, Russell Westbrook shot 57 percent at the rim last season and in Derrick Rose’s 2011 MVP campaign, he shot 58 percent).

Right now, scoring at the basket is far and away Payton’s best skill. He is as fast and as crafty as they come.

With Nikola Vucevic‘s newfound status as a pick-and-pop threat from three, he should feast around the rim even more often and with even greater efficiency.

Here is an example from last April of his impact on the Magic’s offense.

The Detroit Pistons drop Andre Drummond in the pick-and-roll and Ish Smith goes under Nikola Vucevic’s screen. But Payton is just too quick: two points.

That was against a defense that clearly did not consider Vucevic or Payton outside shooting threats. The Pistons made a decision to focus on defending Payton’s drive.

If that tandem saw this defense today, even if Drummond dropped quickly enough to deny Payton that shot at the rim, Payton could have hit Vucevic for a wide-open three.

In this way, the Magic’s newfound 3-point shooting will make Payton an even dangerous driver and attacker.

The Elfrid Payton-Nikola Vucevic and Elfrid Payton-Aaron Gordon pick-and-roll combos will be more deadly this season because of some improved outside strokes. Defenses will have to pick their poison, either giving up something at the rim or at the perimeter.

The big men’s gravity from behind the arc will draw the defense out to clear more room for Payton. And Payton’s gravity inside will generate better looks for Magic shooters.

On this play against the Celtics, Jonathon Simmons misses a long two when the Celtics ice the Magic’s pick-and-roll attempt.

Two things make this play easy to defend: First, Nikola Vucevic’s decision to roll rather than pop keeps Jonathon Simmons’ defender nearby and cuts off any lane for middle penetration.

Second, Simmons is far too willing to settle for these shots, falling between the 60th and 70th percentile in midrange frequency since last season despite making only around 35 percent of those shots.

Aaron Gordon often falls into the same trap, taking long midrange jumpers instead of attacking.

Here, when the San Antonio Spurs switch a pick-and-roll with Nikola Vucevic, Aaron Gordon takes Pau Gasol off the dribble and settles for a contested midrange jumper despite having Terrence Ross wide open in the corner.

That level of tunnel vision cannot work with a player tasked with running pick-and-rolls, especially when isolation ball is not his strong suit.

Payton’s return should alleviate some of that burden for Gordon. That will help him stay in his role and take better shots.

The Magic’s halfcourt offense has been successful partially because these long twos have gone in at an unsustainable rate. Defenses are happy to allow ball handlers these shots out of the pick and roll. And the Magic have taken them.

But as these shots have inevitably stopped falling, the need for an attacking point guard alongside pick-and-pop threats has become increasingly obvious.

In all, Payton is one of the few players who has a consistent track record of getting all the way to the basket. It is safe to say in the last two losses, Orlando’s inability to get the defense to shift or collapse has stagnated play.

Orlando Magic

Evaluating Payton’s impact after he returns will be tricky. As the team’s shooting numbers continue regressing, their overall offensive efficiency will likely continue dropping. That may give the illusion that his return had a negative influence on the offense.

It will be important to give the team’s performance more context. For example, is the offense generating good, open looks? Is there enough ball movement? Is there an emphasis on creating transition opportunities even when the opponent is making shots and not turning the ball over?

If the Magic are remotely successful this year, it will be because the answers to those questions are “yes” more often than not.

When Payton returns, the Magic’s frequency taking long, contested mid-range jumpers should drop in favor of shots at the rim as he supplants Simmons as the Magic’s most frequent pick-and-roll ball-handler. The team will take more open shots overall as he regains the playmaking burden and Gordon relinquishes his current share of it.

Transition opportunities – this team’s bread-and-butter – should increase with his grab-and-go rebounding mentality. Even off makes.

There is a clear hole in the Magic’s offense with Elfrid Payton out. And it is evident every time a ball handler ignores an open man in favor of a long two.

Next: Mario Hezonja improved, but still fighting for a chance

Look for the offense to pick up speed and generate better shots when he returns.