A way-too-early look at the 2018 NBA Draft
Luka Doncic, Real Madrid
Although Slovenia’s Luka Doncic had something of a coming-out party at Eurobasket this summer, his limitless NBA potential is nothing new. His playmaking ability is uncanny, especially for a player his size, and he can score with the best of them.
He showed in Eurobasket his superstar potential is very real. Teamed up with the Miami Heat’s Goran Dragic, he and the rest of the Slovenian national team stumped opposing defenses on their way to a championship.
His ability to handle the ball in the pick and roll is uncanny. He can shoot threes off the dribble, put his defender in jail, hit mid-range shots, finish at the rim and thread passes through tough defenses to hit the roll man.
He is also effective spotting up off the ball and has ultra-deep range that provides a level of spacing Dragic and the rest of his team benefitted from. This skill can provide immediate value in the NBA.
The questions for Doncic, as they do for many European players, revolve around his athletic ability – chiefly, whether his speed and acceleration will translate to the American game. Many European players that rely on their ability to blow past defenders and get down the court in transition find they simply cannot do that against NBA talent.
Fortunately for Doncic, his game is not entirely dependent upon athletic ability. He will hit his share of rough patches. If he can somehow improve his explosiveness, it will only help. The Houston Rockets’ James Harden proved last season that pure speed is not a prerequisite for effectively running an offense or beating defenders.
Orlando Magic
Harden is unique in that he uses his ability to slow down and change speeds to beat defenders where many use sheer power and explosive force. Harden led the league in assists last year in part due to his craftiness and shiftiness that allow him to methodically break down his defender and his incredible court vision to find open teammates beyond the three-point arc.
Similarly, Doncic benefits more from skill and instincts than from athletic ability to create offense.
Doncic would be lucky to ever have a season as prolific as Harden’s 2017 campaign. But Harden is evidence Doncic could still be a dynamic playmaker and All-Star caliber talent relying more on his skill and vision than on ability to blow by defenders.
But NBA-level vision takes time to develop, so if Doncic is at an athletic disadvantage, he might need a few years before he can provide above-average production at the point guard position.
Doncic would be best served going to a team with starting-caliber bigs who can rim-run, play defense and pick-and-pop. Playing alongside a good wing defender would also help mask some of his weaknesses. Basically, the exact situation Dennis Smith Jr. has entered in with the Dallas Mavericks.
His lack of NBA-level athleticism will make his transition to the league harder than it would be otherwise. But he can still be a very good player without it. His skill set is perfect for a modern spread pick-and-roll offense.