Magic Trick: How the Orlando Magic will surprise in 2018

Many outsiders are predicting the Orlando Magic will once again end up at the bottom of the Eastern Conference. But this current team is far different than last year’s squad.

What a difference a year makes.

This time last year the NBA preseason was still in progress. The excitement around Rob Hennigan and Frank Vogel’s new-look Orlando Magic was palpable. The Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers were the large favorites to meet in the Finals

Here we are a year later, with the season about to tip-off, the Magic find themselves with brand new leadership from the top down in terms of basketball operations, a new team and wholly new expectations. Perhaps lowered expectations.

Perhaps, lowered expectations.

To the Magic fans’ constant chagrin the expectations for the Magic by those outside the team remain low. Many are predicting Orlando will finish with even less than the 29 wins they embarrassingly accumulated last season. It is a popular opinion to hold Orlando actually somehow managed to outplay their point differential last season and they will be even more helpless than last year.

But the context of this argument does not make much sense. That is why it will not be a surprise when the Magic pass last year’s win total. The evidence is plain to see.

This year’s Orlando Magic squad is hardly reminiscent of last year’s team.

Out are Rob Hennigan and company in the front office. Along with Jeff Green, Damjan Rudez, Marcus Georges-Hunt, Patricio Garino, C.J. Wilcox, C.J. Watson, Stephen Zimmerman and Jodie Meeks. Now, this alone should get some serious attention the Magic have turned over half their roster, three of which were consistent rotation players and only one (Jodie Meeks) who turned in a NBA-caliber season last year.

In came Arron Afflalo, Wesley Iwundu, Jonathan Isaac, Jonathon Simmons, Khem Birch, Marreese Speights and Shelvin Mack.

Jonathon Simmons played an integral role in the San Antonio Spurs’ playoff success last year. Marreese Speights, Shelvin Mack and Arron Afflalo also played fairly large and semi-productive roles off the bench for their teams last year. Khem Birch was a huge key for Olympiakos in Eurobasket. And Wesley Iwundu and Jonathan Isaac are both rookies who played well enough in college to get drafted, displaying the versatility NBA teams covet.

It is hard not to notice the depth Orlando gained this offseason. If the Magic were to incur a slew of injuries they would have NBA-caliber players to about at least 11 players deep off the bench.

Last season, the Magic had a total of about six consistent NBA-caliber players. Guys like Mario Hezonja and D.J. Augustin, who in the past had proven to be capable NBA players, took significant steps back. They did not contribute at the level the Magic needed to rely on after the bench. In fact, according to HoopStats, the Magic had the fourth-worst bench in the league last year by efficiency rating.

Surely the Magic will be better this year off the bench. And surely the team can expect some of those young players off the bench who disappointed to bounce back.

It is quite possible somebody like Mario Hezonja just is not very good (I still believe he is). But how likely is it that all three of D.J. Augustin, Mario Hezonja and Bismack Biyombo all repeat career-worst, or near-career-worst years this season?

With an additional year playing together (and recall Orlando managed to turn over more players in the 2016 offseason and a coaching staff) and more defined positions and roles will these guys ALL post back-to-back career-threatening seasons?

The season last year from a guy like Augustin was an extreme outlier for him. Augustin posted numbers he has not posted since his rookie contract. Bismack Biyombo managed to see his rebounding and block numbers fall way off his career averages, in part to being played out of position so often. Hezonja regressed so significantly that virtually everybody is writing him off as an NBA player.

These drop offs were hard and abrupt. It is difficult to think all three of these players will manage to play at the same low bar.

But if they do, the Magic now have NBA-caliber replacements. Something they did not possess last season. Coach Frank Vogel will not be forced into a no-win situation like he was last season.

Even Vogel had an outlier season last year. Last season was the first year  Vogel did not coach a top-10 defensive team in his career.

Certainly, personnel played a part of it as the Magic played jumbo lineups that got them torched for the first half of the year. In the second half, Orlando’s defense did not do too much better. Vogel had to spend the summer adjusting his mindset.

But there is hope. During the preseason, it was pretty noticeable how improved Orlando generally looked on defense. The most notable thing was perimeter digs and help. This was a major weakness for the perimeter players all last year.

Additionally, the Magic core of Nikola Vucevic, Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton, Bismack Biyombo and Evan Fournier are all back — and still young.

Orlando Magic

All of these guys were around last season for training camp with Vogel. Having an additional year of learning the scheme will be of great importance for them.

This will be the first time in Elfrid Payton, Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier’s professional careers they will have the same coach and system in back to back seasons. Feeling comfortable with the scheme on the court will pay large dividends.

Getting back to the youth factor, when people mention Orlando being worse than last season, they are discounting the reality the Magic’s young players will improve. As young players often do.

For some reason, national writers and observers seem to believe the Magic and their young players have reached their collective peaks. When it comes to Orlando it feels as though they are all toxic. It should be noted that of Orlando’s projected rotation players none are older than 30. Arron Afflalo is the only one who might crack the rotation.

Can we assume Mario Hezonja (22), Aaron Gordon (22), Elfrid Payton (23), Evan Fournier (24), Bismack Biyombo (25), Nikola Vucevic (26) and Terrence Ross (26) have no room to improve? That is not normally the case. Particularly for guys like Gordon, Hezonja and Payton who are still on their rookie contracts.

Suffice to say, there are plenty of reasons why the Magic will be much improved this season.

The expectations might be low — this is hardly a title team, a playoff lock or anything of the sort. Realistically, the Magic fall more in the range of a fringe playoff team. And only if a bunch of things fall the right way for them.

But this notion Orlando will be in the same stratosphere as the Chicago Bulls, Indiana Pacers and Brooklyn Nets seems fairly ludicrous.

Next: Locked On Magic: Orlando Magic, NBA predictions

There is something to look forward to in Orlando, it just might take awhile for outside observers to take notice.