Orlando Magic Daily Debates: Should Aaron Gordon get an extension?

What is Aaron Gordon’s current value?

Ricky: Aaron Gordon is a proven rotational player, and also a fan favorite, but I think Jeff Weltman is taking a more patient approach with him. Looking long-term though, I do think he projects as an above-average starter, even a fringe All-Star. I would look at four years, $40-45 million deal similar to what the Toronto Raptors gave Normal Powell, or what the Miami Heat gave Josh Richardson.

Sam: I agree with your projection for Gordon, but disagree with your valuation. I think four years, $40-45 million is a little too optimistic. It is true the restricted free agency market should be tight in terms of money, but my concern is Gordon takes the qualifying offer and becomes an unrestricted free agent a year later.

Recently 538’s CARMELO rating valued Gordon’s five-year market value at $135.7 million — roughly $27.1 million per year. That seems like a bit much, even if Gordon continues averaging his preseason numbers of 18.4 points per game and 7.4 rebounds per game on a 60.1 percent effective field goal percentage, including 9 for 21 from beyond the arc. 

Ricky: Yeah, and that is the biggest risk with waiting for restricted free agency. Even if they do sign him to a longer contract than the qualifying offer, you have to worry about having a Gordon Hayward situation.

Philip Rossman-Reich (@philiprr_OMD): I have heard a few people bring up the Gordon Hayward situation. Is that really a concern here?

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In 2014, the Utah Jazz failed to reach an extension agreement and allowed Hayward to hit restricted free agency. He signed a max offer sheet with the Charlotte Hornets. The Jazz matched and while Hayward developed into an All-Star with the Jazz, feelings over how that negotiation was handled did not appear to sit well.

Ricky: Well, Hayward made it clear he remembered when the Jazz failed to offer him an extension and instead waited to match an offer sheet, and how it played a role in his decision to leave. Of course, if Aaron Gordon signs the qualifying offer with the team like Nerlens Noel just did with the Dallas Mavericks, it becomes a stain on the relationship between the team, agent and player.

Sam: But what about the money? I still do not see him wanting anything near four years, $40 million.

Ricky: No, I do not think Gordon would agree to four years, $40 million, but it would at least be a starting point for negotiations. But knowing what the market will be like this offseason makes it difficult to justify agreeing to what he and his agent would be seeking.

Zach: I doubt Gordon is looking for much less than the max.