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538 has most optimistic Orlando Magic prediction yet

By Philip Rossman-Reich

ORLANDO, FL - APRIL 12: Aaron Gordon #00 of the Orlando Magic dunka against the Detroit Pistons on April 12, 2017 at the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Fernando Medina/NBAE via Getty Images)
ORLANDO, FL - APRIL 12: Aaron Gordon #00 of the Orlando Magic dunka against the Detroit Pistons on April 12, 2017 at the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Fernando Medina/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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538’s statistics based CARMELO system is one of the few projections for the 2018 season that like the Orlando Magic. Here is hoping it is true.

The Orlando Magic have pushed few expectations for their 2018 season. The team specifically avoided talking about the Playoffs throughout the preseason, not willing to make the same mistakes it made last year when it proudly proclaimed the team’s playoff expectations.

That ended in disaster.

With internal expectations set low — but still optimistic — there has not been much buzz about the Magic. Yes, the team’s three home preseason games had surprising attendance numbers, including an announced sell out for Friday’s finale against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Most predictions for the Magic from the national media are not high on the team.

There are several predictions projecting the Magic to finish roughly around the same mark as last year at 29 wins. Dan Devine of Ball Don’t Lie had the team finishing with 26. ESPN’s various projection models had the team finishing near 32 wins.

Those win totals might still have the Magic sniffing the Playoff race with how bad the Eastern Conference projects this year. But it is a season of modest improvements, it appears.

Unless you want to believe 538 and their CARMELO ranking system. The statistics-based model sees the Magic doing a bit more. Actually a lot more than a lot of the other national predictions.

Released Friday, the CARMELO projections are a statistical attempt to predict future performance using past performance and comparisons to the growth of similar players to predict future outcome. It ranks players based on how they compare to their peers in similar position and height ranges, as well as draft position and other factors. It takes into account several statistical measures for team success too and then simulates an entire season.

Orlando Magic
Orlando Magic /

Orlando Magic

The 538 simulation projects the Magic to win 37 games and to finish ninth in the Eastern Conference, three games behind eighth-place Miami Heat. The projection gives the Magic a 48 percent chance of making the Playoffs.

This is the most optimistic national prediction or projection to date. Other ESPN projections had the Magic finishing 10th in the East with 33 wins. But they were still fairly far out of the Playoffs.

So what is different about these projections? What does 538 see so optimistically with the Magic?

It starts with Aaron Gordon. CARMELO’s rating system sees a fairly big jump in Aaron Gordon’s production this year and labels him a “Future All-Star.” His range for projected output varies pretty widely but they project him accumulating 4.2 wins above replacement value this year. That is starting to get him into some solid territory.

Similarly, the projection system sees a big bump up for Elfrid Payton (from 3.4 WARP last year to 3.9 this year). Many of the other Magic players seem like they are nearing their peaks and may begin to stagnate or decline.

There are definitely areas where the Magic are likely to improve. Much of their hope lies in the way Aaron Gordon and Elfrid Payton improve. Besides, things could not possibly be worse than last year.

The preseason provided some hope for the Magic to continue their improvement from last season. Their pace was significantly better and the offense seemed to flow a lot smoother. There is still a lot to work on defensively.

For the Magic even to reach this 37-win goal or sniff the Playoffs, they will need some significant internal improvement and for new players to click in perfectly. It feels like several players could be due for a bounce-back year.

But how much will that matter and how high could that take the Magic?

538’s projections seem optimistic. Then again, numbers never seem to lie. Or they cannot lie. They just can get manipulated in some ways.

Next: Evan Fournier looking to grow by simplifying game

At least there is one national projection out there believing in the Magic.