Orlando Magic Daily Mailbag Volume 26: All is new again

These questions are flowing nicely into each other, I like this.

As I noted in the previous question, it is really hard to put a good value on Elfrid Payton. He has not played consistently throughout his career. And so, like a lot of other players, he has to prove himself this year. A contract year makes it even more urgent.

I think it is safe to say I do not believe Payton will get an extension before the deadline for that reason.

If I were to offer him one, I would probably try to get a deal like the one Nikola Vucevic or Terrence Ross has. I think a four-year deal starting at $12 million per year is probably the range for Payton.

But, at this point, I am not signing him to that deal either. There are just too many questions about him and how he fits. It is not even clear if he can be a starting point guard. He needs a full year where he establishes himself clearly as the starter, something he has yet to do in a Magic uniform.

Aaron Gordon is a little bit more of a certainty, but also as big of a mystery. I am not ready to commit a ton of money to him either. And, like Payton, the number I probably want to sign him for now, I probably do not want to pull the trigger fully quite yet.

Gordon, like Payton, had his best run after the All-Star Break when he averaged 16.4 points per game seemed as close as we have seen to what Gordon might ultimately become. It is easy to forget because he has been in the league for three years that he is still just 22 years old. It feels like he is just scratching the surface.

And that makes it even more difficult to put a value on him.

If I were at the negotiating table as the Magic, I would probably start with an offer that starts at $18 million per year. If I am Aaron Gordon’s agent, I let the Magic know that we think Gordon is going to grow a ton this year and we would like to stay, but want to play the year out. The $20 million threshold is where I might start asking Gordon if he wants to accept and just have the security.

There just seems to be no reason for either the team or the player to get a commitment unless it is an incredibly team-friendly deal. And even then, especially with Payton, how much are the Magic willing to lock up long term? Especially on players who have such an uncertain fit.

I think the decision is easier with Gordon to extend him. But I fully admit, I think Gordon is going to be a really good player. I am really excited to see how he develops this year. That is more reason for Gordon to bet on himself and wait until the summer to deal with his contract.

So I do not anticipate either signing an extension before this season.