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Nylon Calculus gives Orlando Magic slim shot at Playoffs

By Philip Rossman-Reich

WASHINGTON, DC -  MARCH 5: Aaron Gordon #00 of the Orlando Magic drives to the basket against the Washington Wizards on March 5, 2017 at Verizon Center in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Ned Dishman/NBAE via Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC -  MARCH 5: Aaron Gordon #00 of the Orlando Magic drives to the basket against the Washington Wizards on March 5, 2017 at Verizon Center in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Ned Dishman/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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Like many projections, Nylon Calculus’ two projections for the season see the Orlando Magic making moderate gains. But the Playoffs are still a ways off.

Many of the preseason predictions for the NBA season have not given the Orlando Magic much chance.

Who could blame them after last year’s difficult season? There is not a lot of reason to take a risk on this team looking at how this team has developed in the past. Sure, the Magic made some cosmetic changes and have some internal stability the franchise has not had in some time. But this is still largely the same team that won 29 games.

Most predictions have acknowledged a minor improvement into about 30-or-so wins. But no preseason prediction has put the Magic in the Playoffs — although undoubtedly the Eastern Conference is worse than it was before, bringing that goal closer.

Like the team itself, there seems like there is guarded optimism about the Magic and a lowering of expectations. The Magic went far out of their way on Media Day to avoid setting Playoff expectations and to keep the focus on the day-to-day grind and their own improvement as a unit.

Count Nylon Calculus and their Highly Plausible Win Projections model among the predictors that see moderate gains for the Orlando Magic.

Andrew Johnson of Nylon Calculus posted his mathematical model and predictions for the upcoming season. The Highly Plausible Win Projections combine Johnson’s own metric, box score stats, SportVU stats and Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus to create a projection. He tries to predict depth charts and create adjustments based on player age and other factors.

Johnson’s model, which historically has performed well in ABPR prediction leagues beating 538’s CARMELO system among others, has the Magic winning 33.6 games this year and a 19.7 percent chance at making the Playoffs. The 33.6 wins would place the Magic 12th in the Eastern Conference and three games out of the Playoffs.

Orlando Magic
Orlando Magic /

Orlando Magic

That would be an interesting season. Even more interesting is that in the model, the Magic had a pinnacle line of 33.5. This means it would seem the Magic were fairly consistent in the model simulations. It would suggest the Magic are fairly likely to hit that 32-36 win mark this season.

Perhaps the flaw in these projections is that it relies heavily on past performance to make its projections. It would not be able to predict any major jumps in player development. That is obviously something the Magic are relying heavily on for success. The projection likely acknowledges the possibility and likelihood several players who had underperforming seasons last year return to their career means.

Many of these projections from the math-based models are seeing similar things.

Last week, Jacob Goldstein of Nylon Calculus was a bit more optimistic about the Magic. In his win projections, he uses similarity scores to project how players will progress this year and combining the results.

In this metric, the Magic turn out much better — at 36 wins, but still just outside of the Playoffs.

This would make sense, of course. Many of the Magic’s players are young and seem poised to enter their prime. While the team as a whole did not play well, many players were still on the uptick. So it would make sense a projection based on player similarity scores might see several players ready to take the leap and jump up in their production.

But overall, these projections suggest the Magic are poised for a moderate improvement. Maybe not the big leap everyone is hoping for.

To the Magic’s credit so far this season (outside of Arron Afflalo‘s Instagram), they are focused on getting better every day. They do not appear interested in big picture items.

Next: Orlando Magic looking to use 3-pointer more effectively

Although, of course, they would like to win and make a run for the Playoffs if they can.