Five promising statistics for the Orlando Magic in 2018

The Orlando Magic should have cautious optimism for the upcoming 2018 season. And there are several reasons why looking back at last year.

The Orlando Magic enter the 2018 season with a wave of cautious optimism. At least, that is what fans likely have to tell themselves to believe in this season.

Things, at least, seemingly could not get worse after a 29-win last season.

Orlando entered last year having remade its roster, trading off some young pieces for Serge Ibaka and to create cap room. The Magic did not exactly strike in free agency, but they felt they had forced fit an identity onto the team that could propel them into the Playoffs. The Magic sold this confidence to fans.

That ultimate disappointment led to some massive changes in the front office. And, before that in February, the Magic traded Serge Ibaka for Terrence Ross.

That trade had a massive effect on the Magic, even if it did not show up in the win column after the All-Star Break. The team became a much more cohesive offensive unit and some of the key young players began to blossom.

Listening to players and coaches talk at the end of the season, they preached the team was making progress and heading in the right direction. They could sense the team’s forward momentum and told anyone who would listen they were a better team. It created a small sense of optimism. And gave coach Frank Vogel some ammo to hold the course.

Orlando Magic

Or, at least, gave president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman the ammo to keep the roster steady and work on the fringes without much cap maneuverability this summer.

See, cautious optimism.

There are plenty of signs to suggest this could all work out. The Magic had some small measure of success last year to end the season and the roster is still very young. No starter on the team is older than 27 years old. This is a team that should be getting ready to peak.

Yes, the Magic still lack top-end talent. That will undoubtedly hold Orlando back in some way. But that does not mean the team could see itself improve this year. Potentially to the point of flirting with the Playoffs.

What signs are there to make the optimists get excited for 2018? There are definitely a few to point out.

Starting Lineup Net Rating: +1.4

The Orlando Magic were telling anyone who would listen to them at the end of the season they felt like they had something toward the end of last season. They believed the franchise had found a style that fits their roster better and could at least feel the team was playing better.

Aesthetically, the Magic’s decision to move Aaron Gordon to power forward and run a fast-paced offense was a long time coming. The Magic seemingly went out of their way to make Aaron Gordon a small forward last year and keep him on the perimeter. It did not work for anyone.

And so the team, grabbing onto anything positive it could find, found something worth at least maintaining or exploring in the early part of the season after the All-Star Break.

If the Magic can believe in its results at the end of the season, then it might indeed have something to build from.

That is because the Magic’s starting lineup to end last season was actually fairly successful.

In 410 minutes after the All-Star Break, the Magic’s lineup of Elfrid Payton, Terrence Ross, Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic posted a net rating of +1.4 points per 100 possessions. The lineup posted a 112.0 offensive rating (basic math should tell you they gave up 110.6 points per 100 possessions, ignore that mark for now).

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That positive net rating suggests statistically the team should have been about .500. In fact, according to HoopsStats, the Magic had the 10th best starting lineup in the league after the All-Star Break.

That would all suggest there is something there. As I noted yesterday in stats of concern, the Magic’s bench was that abysmally bad.

But the strong play from the starting lineup after the All-Star Break suggests the team has something to build from. Orlando’s starting lineup were not world beaters by any means. But they were good enough to be a .500 team. And .500 at least gets the team in the Playoff conversation.

That is if they can carry it over.

Certainly, the team will have to improve its defense. That is something the Magic have to believe they can fix through a true training camp. There just is not the time to implement a new defense in the course of a season. Orlando could see improvement there just from familiarity and practice.

If that offense can be maintained, Orlando might have something. It is at least a sign of optimism for the team.

Aaron Gordon’s scoring: 16.4

Aaron Gordon is the future of the Orlando Magic. Or, at least, he was last year.

Despite two years under his belt, the team still did not know quite what it had. It still felt like he was the rookie full of limitless potential in need of definition. Even though he had played two years, he felt like he could be formed into anything.

Maybe if he had been healthy his first two years and the Magic had a better sense of what he could do as a player, they would have done things differently in developing the team. As things stood, the Magic opted to move Gordon to small forward, putting him on the perimeter. They believed he could form fit into whatever role the team needed, especially as he improved his shooting.

Even from the first two years, it seemed this was a risk. And it did not help matters that Gordon got injured and missed the first two weeks of camp. Gordon has struggled to find his fit.

That is until after the All-Star Break last year.

Finally unleashed at power forward, fully healthy after a knock before the All-Star Break and with some stability and comfort, Gordon went on a tear to end the season. He began to look like the player everyone was promised when the Magic drafted him fourth overall.

In all, Gordon averaged 16.4 points per game and 6.2 rebounds per game for the Magic after the All-Star Break. He shot a 50.3 percent effective field goal percentage as he worked closer to the basket. Here was Gordon working exactly how he should have all along.

The Magic got him out in transition, letting him attack open space and get to the basket. He caught the ball in the mid-post against slower, less athletic defenders. He learned how to jab step his way to space and started hitting mid-range and single dribble pull-up jumpers with surprising efficiency.

Gordon was reacting on the court more than thinking and that went a long way. It seemed like he was finally home.

The cards now seem to align for Gordon to take another step. The 22-year-old forward has never had a healthy NBA summer — he broke his jaw after a strong Summer League before his second year — nor has he had the same coach in consecutive years. Gordon could finally take a major leap and establish himself as a core piece for the Magic.

Just in time too. It is a contract year.

The way he played to end last season suggests he could.

Elfrid Payton’s stat line: 13.5/7.0/8.4/50.8%

There was a lot to digest when it came to Elfrid Payton last season. The Orlando Magic encouraged him to shoot more, especially when he was open, hoping a boost of confidence and an improved form could change his fortunes. It was almost required too with Serge Ibaka and Nikola Vucevic crowding the paint.

That did not work. In fact, the plan seemed to constrict Payton’s ability to get into the paint. His assists dropped and teams crowded Payton even more, daring him to shot. There was no space for him to take and close out.

That changed after the All-Star Break. Orlando put the ball in Payton’s hands and told him to go. Even in the half-court, the move to go smaller cleared the paint a bit for him to attack off pick and rolls. He could find himself in the paint a lot easier now, especially with how far defenses played off him. And the spark was lit to allow him to pass the ball more effectively.

The stats did not lie that Payton took to this style much more effectively.

His scoring stayed steady at 13.5 points per game. But his rebounding went up from 3.8 per game before the break to 7.0 per game after. Grabbing those boards helped him start the break much quicker.

More importantly, his assists increased from 5.7 per game before the break to 8.4 per game after. Payton took firm hold of the team and became its driving force and main creator. His better play made everyone else’s play better. It was amazing what a good point guard could do.

It was easy to get wrapped up in Payton’s triple-doubles. He had five of them from March to the end of the year. And his post-All-Star numbers put him in some elite company. Payton played at a high level.

The question is whether he can maintain it — especially that 50.2 percent field goal shooting — with his inconsistent jumper. And the other question is whether he can make good on his defensive potential to help the Magic take that next step.

Frank Vogel’s second-year Def. Rtg.: 96.6

It is easy to take having the same coach for granted. In fact, it should be easy and something a team takes for granted. Coaching changes should not happen every year. Some measure of philosophical consistency is critical for a team to grow and improve. Especially a young team. Having to change coaches in each of the past three years for the Magic undoubtedly has affected the team’s growth.

It was certainly time for the Magic to part with Jacque Vaughn after the 2014 season. The team was not making dramatic gains and it was time to move out of the rebuilding phase and more toward developing to a winner.

Scott Skiles succeeded in the Magic’s 35-win 2015 season. Maybe with his direction and consistency for the other players on the roster, he would have been able to wring more out of last year’s team. We will never know. His sudden resignation through the franchise into turmoil.

They got lucky to get a coach like Frank Vogel. But not even he could make much with the roster the team had.

The reality is for many of the players on this team, nobody knows how they will react to having some coaching stability. It is hard to think that it will be a bad thing for the coach and the key player to have a relationship already established. Even after last season.

So what can Vogel’s history teach us, if anything?

Vogel likes to refer to his time with the Indiana Pacers a lot, especially as he tried to sell playing with two bigs and then again when he tried to sell his ability to coach a smaller team. But there was something instructive.

The Pacers were starting from a better place, but in his first full year as head coach, the Pacers finished 10th in the league with a 100.4 defensive rating. His second year, with virtually the same roster, the Pacers improved to 96.6, the best mark in the league.

There are obvious reasons for that. David West and Roy Hibbert were both extremely good defenders. Paul George and Danny Granger were good perimeter defenders too. The overall defensive talent on that team is much better than on this roster.

Still, Vogel gets a lot of credit for helping transform Hibbert from the earth-bound, slow-footed center to the verticality-driven rim protector he became in the Pacers’ heyday. He gets some credit for Nikola Vucevic’s improved defense last year. And who knows what might happen in a second year together (although, Vucevic did not display much defensive improvement in Eurobasket).

This is all to say, Vogel has made his teams better in the past, especially after that second year. And Orlando still had a top-five defense through a quarter of the season. Vogel has shown his coaching chops before. He certainly could do so again.

Evan Fournier’s Clutch Play: 56.3% eFG%

The favorite game for fans to play is to ask who takes the shot late in games. There is a bit of a macho culture about it too. The best player should take the best shot — never mind what is the right play. It creates moments fans want to remember and can stand as snapshots for the season.

Never mind that close games are a bit of a crapshoot. Efficiency usually goes way down as teams abandon their playbook to create isolation situations for their best players. What happens in the final moments of a game is completely different stylistically from what happens the rest of the game.

Good teams do not win close games, they avoid them. Most of the best teams find a way to pull games out before they get overly tight. Still, teams have to find a way to win them. For the most part, teams finish about .500 in close games.

So it is not so surprising the Magic finished the year 18-21 in close games last year, according to NBA.com. They finished near the bottom of the pack in wins, but they were right in the middle in losses. To be sure, the difference between a good and a bad season will be clutch play and the ability to win close games.

This is where having Evan Fournier might come in handy.

Fournier does not fit that model of the go-to scorer. He is the Magic’s best offensive player, but not a great one-on-one creator. Yet, Fournier was among the best players in the league in clutch situations. Or at least among the most efficient.

That NBATV graphic is not lying. Fournier shot 56.3 percent effective field goal percentage in games where the score was within five points in the final five minutes of regulation and overtime.

Fournier has long had a penchant for hitting big shots. He did so again in Eurobasket when he hit two key jumpers in France’s opening loss to Finland.

Of course, everyone would point out France still lost that game.  And Orlando lost plenty more.

But if the Magic can get themselves in a better position and more confidence to play in these close games. Maybe Fournier’s efficiency late in these games can help turn that tide.

Next: 2018 Orlando Magic Player Outlook: Elfrid Payton

It is definitely something to watch and keep in mind for this team. And a reason to be optimistic about its 2018 season.