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2018 Orlando Magic Player Outlook: Elfrid Payton

By Patrick Flynn

ORLANDO, FL - DECEMBER 26: Elfrid Payton #4 of the Orlando Magic goes up for a lay up against the Memphis Grizzlies on December 26, 2016 at Amway Center in Orlando, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2016 NBAE (Photo by Fernando Medina/NBAE via Getty Images)
ORLANDO, FL - DECEMBER 26: Elfrid Payton #4 of the Orlando Magic goes up for a lay up against the Memphis Grizzlies on December 26, 2016 at Amway Center in Orlando, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2016 NBAE (Photo by Fernando Medina/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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Elfrid Payton, Milwaukee Bucks, Orlando Magic
ORLANDO, FL – JANUARY 20: Elfrid Payton #4 of the Orlando Magic handles the ball against the Milwaukee Bucks on January 20, 2017 at Amway Center in Orlando, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Fernando Medina/NBAE via Getty Images) /

What could go wrong

Elfrid Payton could regress from the improvements he made toward the end of last season and find himself losing playing time to other veteran guards. It happened before, after all.

Poor shooting and turnovers could lead Payton to getting buried on the bench. And that could spell doom for his tenure with the Magic. Payton has to establish himself as the clear-cut point guard of the future.

Last season Payton’s outside shooting stalled the offense in the half-court. This magnified the Magic’s weaknesses on offense.

The Magic are a young, athletic team but are one of the worst shooting teams in the league (29th in both field goal percentage and 3-point percentage last season). Payton’s ability to shoot (47 percent on field goals, 27 percent on 3-pointers and 69 percent from the foul line) heavily impact the spacing on the floor. If Payton improved these numbers, teams would be forced to defend him on the perimeter and give teammates more of a chance to make a play.

Payton had the best stretch of his career playing in a more up-tempo offense after the All-Star Break. If Vogel decides to revert back to primarily half-court sets, it would magnify the need for Payton to improve his shooting.

Payton’s best bet to ensure his starting role and future with the team hinges upon improving his shooting regardless of the offense Vogel runs this season. But if Payton is unable to improve his shooting Vogel could lose all trust and turn to the bench.

This would be a death sentence for Payton in Orlando. His value as a trade asset would plummet because he would no longer be perceived as a starting point guard or a top-tier prospect.

If Payton were to get buried or suffer from an inconsistent role he would most likely be traded at the deadline for pennies on the dollar.