It is never too early to think about the next step. For the Orlando Magic, a tight salary sheet shows why success in 2018 is so important.
The Orlando Magic roster is more or less set for training camp and for, at least, the beginning of the 2018 season. The team is not going to be focused on changes.
After all, president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman said this season would largely be one where they evaluated the roster and see what they had. They are a new set of eyes and opinions on what the team has and how to grow.
That might have been a bit of copy for the press and fans considering how little maneuverability or financial flexibility the team had. The Magic had a little bit of cap room to spend, but not enough to add another starter. And good luck to them making an improvement with the roster that won just 29 games last year in a trade.
Patience was not just a strategy, it was a requirement.
Most fans would probably concur Weltman did a good job considering the resources he had. He spent the Magic’s limited capital on improving the team’s bench, which was among the worst units in the league last season. Signing Jonathon Simmons, Arron Afflalo, Marreese Speights and Shelvin Mack gives the bench some more veteran poise. Adding in Jonathan Isaac gives the team a lengthy, young defender to the mix.
There is at least cautious optimism about what the Magic could do this season. They at least want to see the team take a step forward — whether it is back to the 35-win level they were at in 2016 or back to the Playoffs for the first time in five years — and define a clearer future for the team.
From there the Magic can make some decisions and make some moves to take the final step.
How they go about doing that will still be quite the mystery. Recreating some financial flexibility is going to be difficult. And that is before the team dives into Aaron Gordon and Elfrid Payton‘s potential extensions next summer.
That is why it is so important for the Magic to play well this year and increase the value of some of their players and show they have an internal path forward. It might be the only way they can truly move up in the NBA pecking order.
Internal improvement is still the best way to get better. The Magic will rely on it even more because of their financial situation.
According to Eric Pincus of Basketball Insiders, the Magic have $78.2 million in guaranteed salary for next season. Evan Fournier and Bismack Biyombo will be a year closer to the end of their contracts, but that is still far off. And Nikola Vucevic and Terrence Ross will be in their contract years. Of course, this total does not include any potential extensions for Aaron Gordon and Elfrid Payton. Those extensions are the biggest unknown costs for the Magic next summer.
It is very early to begin planning the Magic’s long-term financial future too much. A lot can change in the course of the season. Things will become clearer as the season plays out.
But what is exceedingly clear is the salary cap is not expected to take much of a jump. And seeing as so many teams, including the Magic, spent a lot of their money last summer in free agency, there is less money to go around.
This will play a role in the Magic’s expected negotiations with Gordon and Payton this summer. Especially considering how difficult restricted free agents like Jonathon Simmons, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Nerlens Noel found their free agency this summer.
According to Keith Smith of RealGM, cap room will be even tighter next summer. At least, as teams stand now. Surely some teams will work to create more cap room at the trade deadline. The Magic may be one of them. And it seems like they could wiggle out a bit more maneuverability.
Only five teams are projected to have cap space next season, according to Smith operating with a $102 million salary cap next season. The Magic are expected to be $24 million over the cap — largely thanks to projected extensions for Gordon and Payton.
What the Magic are expected to do next summer and how they will operate will largely be determined by how the Magic handle the free agency of these two young players.
After all, the Magic have roughly $23.8 million in cap space without adding back any free agents from next season. And, according to Smith, the Magic can create as much as $21.5 million in cap space next year. That is right in the middle of the pack for the league. Much of that $21.5 million would have to go to Gordon and Payton.
Indeed, the Magic are still a bit hamstrung with their spending spree from last year. And if Gordon and Payton cost the team $30 million total, that is going to put even more pressure on the Magic to be frugal with any new additions to the team.
Orlando Magic
That is again why it is so important for the Magic to show some signs of life this season. A strong season would put them in a better position to make moves at the deadline and in the offseason. Not to mention give the team a better base to build from for the future.
The Magic are taking an evaluative posture with this season. Weltman and his staff are going to spend the year looking at what they have. They will then determine how to move forward to improve the team from those observations.
But the reality may be the Magic are a bit stuck with who they have for the moment. At least until some of their contracts begin rolling off the books.
Surely, players like Terrence Ross and Nikola Vucevic, coming to the end of their contracts, will have some value in the trade market. It may be an opportunity for Orlando to free up some cap room for the summer.
But, in all likelihood, the Magic will again be operating as if they are over the cap next summer. They will likely take a patient approach again. That puts an added emphasis on drafting impact players in the Draft (where cost is controlled).
It also puts an added emphasis on the team they have constructed already. It needs to perform. Not just to increase the marketability of the players already on the roster. But also because this may be the roster they have for the foreseeable future.
Of course, a lot can change between now and next February at the trade deadline and next June when the season begins again. For now, the Magic have to rely on what they have and hope it gets them where they want to go.
Next: 2018 Orlando Magic Player Outlook: Evan Fournier
And that means they have to let this season play out.