Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton, Orlando Magic about to enter perils of restricted free agency
With the offseason over, the Orlando Magic will now turn to their biggest question for next season — evaluating Aaron Gordon and Elfrid Payton‘s worth.
The countdown is on.
The Orlando Magic have roughly 50 days remaining until the start of the NBA season. That does not seem like a lot of time to get things done. And those days will drag until training camp starts roughly a month from now.
The Magic completed the main parts of their offseason a while ago. The big changes in free agency were really more cosmetic changes to add depth and experience. Jonathon Simmons is a solid pickup on a reasonable contract. Shelvin Mack, Arron Afflalo and Marreese Speights are all solid veterans who should provide some stability to the team.
Orlando, even with new management, is paying the price for its spending spree in 2016, though. It left the team with little financial flexibility for the time being. The Magic have $78.2 million in guaranteed salary next year. It does not seem likely for Orlando to create cap room for much flexibility.
For now, the Magic are stuck with their team. And that puts the pressure on the two most uncontrolled costs the Magic have for their future.
For two key players, a decision point is coming fast.
By now, everyone knows the decision facing the Magic this summer, this year and possibly into next summer. Aaron Gordon and Elfrid Payton have come to the end of their rookie contracts and are due to get their pay days. The Magic are slowly losing their cost control on their two most promising prospects. And yet, the Magic do not seem to know what they have in them at this point. It is unclear even what to offer them that is a fair deal. Or what they could get in free agency next summer.
Orlando Magic
The whole dilemma was laid out well by Aaron Goldstone of Orlando Pinstriped Post late last week. And this will be the storyline for the two of them heading into camp and into the offseason next year.
They know this is a big year for them. But they also may know they need to get their money sooner rather than later. All the uncertainty is going to create a difficult negotiating period and some tough choices for the Magic as they try to evaluate these two young players.
The restricted free agent market this summer did little to cut through the market.
The 2013 NBA Draft was certainly a forgettable one. But the players who took care of their extensions early reaped the reward. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Victor Oladipo, C.J. McCollum, Dennis Schroder, Steven Adams and Cody Zeller all took care of their contracts early. The players who entered restricted free agency found a closed market.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope settled for a one-year deal. Nerlens Noel signed his qualifying offer, unable to find his price on the open market. The only guys that seemed to get their money were Otto Porter, signing a max offer sheet with the Brooklyn Nets, and Tim Hardaway Jr., who signed a surprisingly massive deal with the New York Knicks.
This might get to the heart of some of the issues with restricted free agency. It gives the retaining team the right to match any offer and that usually detracts teams from making offer sheets. Or if they do, they have to be rich enough to keep the other team from matching. It usually leaves the players coming off their rookie contracts in a bad situation.
And with so many teams overspending last summer, most teams still do not have the massive cap room to make big offers. It has left a lot of players in purgatory. And now the 2014 Draft class is going to face this.
That makes the decision for uncertain players like Gordon and Payton all the more precarious.
Gordon is the big one. The fourth overall pick from 2014 averaged a career-best 12.7 points per game and 5.1 rebounds per game. That is hardly enough to invest a ton of money. But there is still belief Gordon can take a leap. He has never had a healthy summer to improve his skills and averaged 16.4 points and 6.2 rebounds per game after the All-Star Break. That suggests Gordon has another level. There is still a lot unknown.
Payton is a bit more of a known. He has started for the majority of his three seasons in the NBA. He averaged 12.8 points and 6.5 assists per game last year. And like Gordon, he upped his play after the Magic shifted their lineup last year. But the questions about his shooting and long-term fit remain.
And it is not easy to place a monetary value on either player.
Andrew Wiggins is the only player that has signed an extension so far. It seems likely Marcus Smart, Zach LaVine and Joel Embiid will get close to extensions before the deadline before the season. Maybe even Julius Randle. Discussions with rookies set for extensions probably will kick up closer to the beginning of training camp.
Gordon and Payton will present an interesting case on both sides for the Magic and the player.
Gordon and Payton will obviously be invested in themselves and their agents should be thinking about how to get them the most money. They can up their value with strong play this season.
Magic’s new management is admittedly in evaluative mode and getting to know the players on their roster. They may not be willing to dole out big money and further tie up their future books (at least, right now). And drafting Jonathan Isaac would seemingly put some pressure on Aaron Gordon at power forward.
It leaves everything up in the air for these two. And the prospect of a tight market next summer in free agency — only 10 teams are projected to have more than $10 million in cap space next summer by SpoTrac and a lot of those teams will eat into that space to sign their own players.
That could give the Magic more leverage to wait it out and find a bargain. Or it could mean the players see the tea leaves and take a smaller deal now for long-term security.
The Magic have done well with their restricted free agents in the past. Nikola Vucevic signed an extremely team-friendly deal. Orlando signed Tobias Harris to less than the max offer sheet he supposedly elicited. And Evan Fournier got a big deal, but one that is generally viewed as solid for his production.
It is always tricky to navigate restricted free agency. Especially with how things are going now.
Nerlens Noel, by all accounts, is solid. He got stuck in the logjam of bigs with the Philadelphia 76ers. But he has established himself with a solid career. He averaged 8.5 points, 6.8 rebounds and 1.1 blocks per game in his 22 games with the Dallas Mavericks. Perhaps he asked for too much money or set his salary expectations too high. He is the rare player to sign the qualifying offer.
Neither Gordon nor Payton likely fall into this category. Then again, they have not established exactly what their worth is either.
Everything is uncertain for these two key players and for the Magic as this decision looms on the horizon this training camp. And they will have a season to prove exactly what they are worth.
Next: Nikola Vucevic likely to bounce back in 2018
At this point, it seems unlikely either player will sign an extension. Both will have to prove themselves all over again this season to establish their worth.