The first odds from Las Vegas are out for the Orlando Magic season. Like other early preseason predictions, they see a modest improvement from the Magic.
The NBA season is starting to get more real and real as there is less than one month away from the start of training camp.
The usual signs for the NBA season are starting to pop up — more details for NBA2K, players posting workout videos of each other working together, European FIBA tournaments starting up. And then there is this: Vegas odds.
Let the gambling begin.
Championship odds have been up for a while — SportsBookReview has the MOrlando Magic running at +100,000 (1,000/1) to win the championship, +20,000 (200/1) to win the Eastern Conference and +3,300 (33/1) to win the Southeast Division. But the Orlando Magic are not going to be involved heavily in those. What everyone is really interested in is over/unders and what that says for the upcoming season.
And, like many of the predictions so far, Vegas sees improvement in the Magic but not enough to run home about.
WestGate’s Jeff Sherman posted the casino’s over/under odds for the 2017 season. They have the Magic coming in at 33.5 wins:
2017-18 NBA reg season wins
— Jeff Sherman (@golfodds) August 29, 2017
LAC 43.5
LAL 33.5
Mem 37.5
Mia 43.5
Mil 47.5
Min 48.5
NO 39.5
NY 30.5
OKC 51.5
Orl 33.5
Phi 42.5
Phx 28.5
That is a modest improvement for the Magic and generally in line with other predictions for the Magic so far. ESPN’s Summer Forecast predicted the Magic to win 30 games and the Real Plus-Minus metric predicted the Magic to win 32 games.
This prediction then is in line with those other predictions. But it also suggests Vegas sees the team’s improvement clearer than the other predictors. After all, Vegas sets the over/under where it believes it can get action on both sides of the bet.
Reality might very well be the Magic are expected to improve by about five games in the win column. Going up from 29 to 34 wins seems fairly modest. But considering the Magic did not change the starting lineup and made mostly cosmetic changes to improve the bench — Jonathon Simmons most of all — it seems like a real step forward.
In the ranking of over/unders, the Magic fall fourth in the Southeast Division ahead of only the Atlanta Hawks. Most importantly, the Magic’s 33.5 win total puts them 10th in the Eastern Conference. But it leaves them nine games out of the final Playoff spot. WestGate set the Philadelphia 76ers and Charlotte Hornets at 42.5 wins.
That 42.5-win total for the final spot in the Eastern Conference is probably a bit higher than most project. Then again, there are probably a lot of people who believe the 76ers are going to take the leap right now. They are a trendy pick to make the Playoffs, even with their youth and injury questions.
WestGate also released odds to make the Playoffs. The Magic are currently running +280 (14/5 odds) to make the Playoffs and -360 (5/18 odds) to miss the Playoffs.
The odds are long, to say the least.
The NBA is not featuring the Magic this year. They do not appear on national television at all this year and have just a scant three appearances total on NBATV (at least for now). So it is not surprising to see a modest improvement for this team. And it is not likely to generate a ton of action.
Next: Orlando Magic make clearer rotation, path to identity
To say the least, if the Magic make the Playoffs, it will be a surprise. But, once again, predictors for this season see the Magic making a slight improvement in 2018.