Why Aaron Gordon is ready to take another step forward

The Orlando Magic’s crowded frontcourt forced Aaron Gordon into a suboptimal role last season, hiding his improvements. Now, it is time for Gordon to show what he is worth.

Aaron Gordon was not put in the best position to succeed last season.

It did not take long for most fans to realize Gordon was better at power forward than small forward. Ball handling and shooting are not his strongest suits, but the team’s awkward roster construction forced him into that role.

The Serge Ibaka trade just before the All-Star Break allowed Aaron Gordon more minutes at power forward later in the year. Even before that, he played very good defense and was an above-average offensive player in some categories. He just was not often given the opportunity to do what he was good at, which dragged his overall numbers down.

To some, it appeared he had regressed or stagnated in his development.

NBA Math’s Value Added metric measures how efficiently a player scores on each play type (isolation, cuts, putbacks, post-ups, off-screen, handoffs, spot-ups, transition, running the pick-and-roll, and rolling out of the pick-and-roll) compared to an average player. Then, it multiplies the difference by a player’s total possessions to arrive at an estimate of how many total points above average a player added for each play type.

For example, Gordon scored 1.15 points per isolation possession last year. The average player scored 0.87, so he was 0.28 points per possession better than average. He had 71 total isolation possessions, and 71 times 0.28 is 19.88.

In total, he added approximately 19.88 points more than the average player would have over the same amount of possessions.

Of the 10 play types, Gordon contributed positive value in only four: putbacks, rolling to the basket, cuts and isolation. He did not have enough post-up possessions to register positive or negative value.

Unfortunately, only 26.8 percent of his total possessions went to those plays (compare that to 37.9 percent in 2016). The rest was devoted to actions he was not nearly as good at: running the pick and roll as the ball handler, spotting up, coming off screens, etc.

That lopsided division illustrates how many of Gordon’s offensive opportunities were schematically misguided.

In 2016, Gordon was not as good– he still improved on most statistical categories even out of position in 2017. But because he was playing his natural position, his opportunities were more in line with his skill set – he had more chances to roll, cut and get putbacks.

One question naturally follows: What would last season have looked like had Gordon received the opportunities he did in 2016 and scored with the efficiency he did in the latter part of 2017?

If you take his efficiency numbers from last year and extrapolate them to his play type distribution from 2016, his total value added improves from -16.47 in 2016 and -14.33 in 2017 to 18.2. Essentially, Gordon goes from a negative offensive player to a positive offensive player if the Magic would have used him the same way they did in 2016.

That is not just a 35-point improvement. It is an improvement that takes him from having a net negative impact on offensive to a positive impact. The way the Magic used him 2017 had that much of an effect. If he can continue his efficiency from 2017 and the Magic tweak his usage, he could be in for a breakout season.

Theoretically, that means that if in 2017 Aaron Gordon had the same role he did in 2016, he would have been a statistically above-average offensive player.

Adding 18.2 points of total value over 82 games is not exactly MVP level (LeBron James added 185.28 total points last year, for example). But it is good, which is significant as Gordon is nearing something of a crossroads.

Orlando Magic

Next season, Gordon will be back at power forward presumably for all 82 games. He will have more opportunities around the basket, cutting, rolling and rebounding. Gordon has already shown he can excel at all those things. But now he will be able to do so over a wider sample.

He will also be eligible for a contract extension until the beginning of the 2018 season.

Considering his proven defensive prowess, the idea he could sustain that efficiency makes a compelling argument he is well worth an extension. But it is still unproven.

Gordon still must prove on the court he can score with that same efficiency over a greater number of possessions.

Last year, his transition numbers took a step back (1.08 points per possession to 1.03) when he had 78 more possessions, perhaps a result of him forcing more difficult shots. If he wants to avoid diluting his efficiency on cuts, rolls and putbacks, he will just have to make sure that his additional opportunities are both within himself and within the offense.

But the Magic will not have the luxury of waiting to see how he does next year.

They need to either bet on his upside and extend him before the deadline or simply allow him to hit restricted free agency next summer. But this article is not about that inasmuch as it is about where Gordon is currently at in his development. That decision on his future is a conversation for another day. It must also factor in the upcoming restricted free agent market, Gordon’s upside and the state of the Magic franchise.

In any case, next season will be a test for Gordon.

He must sustain or improve last year’s efficiency with more possessions. And then prove he can be consistently above-average in his areas of strength.

Expanding his game would not hurt. But first, he needs a chance to show his worth through the core areas of his game. That chance was squandered most of last season because of the organization’s ham-fisted effort to make the playoffs.

Gordon is already above-average at most of the things expected of a modern NBA power forward. It was just severely muddled with him at the 3.

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With a full season at the 4 ahead of him, there is no reason Gordon cannot take another step forward and establish himself as a franchise player.