The NBA hoped to accomplish several goals with the 2018 schedule. The road ahead for the Orlando Magic is laid out and there are some key points to watch.
The NBA released its 2017-18 schedule Monday, making next season very real. Every Orlando Magic surely as put the schedule into their calendars by now. Or maybe that is just me.
The schedule is the same as it always is — 82 games, 41 at home and 41 on the road. There are the usual road trips and homestands that make up the normal ebb and flow of the regular season.
This season is different for sure. The NBA is cutting the preseason short by two weeks to start the regular season earlier. That affords teams more rest days. And, indeed, there are very clearly more rest days. A lot more in the grand scheme of things.
The league specifically worked to add more rest days for players and eliminate as many back to backs as they could. The NBA successfully ended four-games-in-five-nights throughout the league.
The NBA typically has a balanced schedule. Teams play each other just about the same amount of times every year. There are only a few variations to that formula. But the schedule does have its peculiarities.
But the schedule does have its peculiarities. Road trips create schedule losses — even when there is more rest to be had. And the road to that 82nd final game is always a winding one.
The Magic have a lot of work to do to prepare themselves for that schedule. A lot of the concern, particularly early in the season, will be about coming together as a team. The Magic will have to do so quickly too with that first big road trip coming so early in the season.
So what does this schedule look like compared to other teams around the league, and what points of the season do we have to keep an eye on? There is some insight into this.
Positive Residual of Nylon Calculus put together a statistical look at the schedules for each team and a great interactive tool to explore how this seemingly uniform schedule differs from team to team.
The Magic, according to the chart, will have 15 back to backs this year, the same number as last year. That actually falls on the heavy side among the league. The most back to backs any team will have this year is 16. So Orlando did not luck out there.
But the team gains advantages elsewhere.
Orlando will travel 47,630 miles this year, which is right in the middle of the pack for teams around the league. In previous studies of miles traveled, the Magic usually rank near the top. A lot of that has to do with geography. Florida is on the very edges of the country and so they tend to take longer road trips.
It might help this year the Magic have a seven-game home stand in late March to reduce some of that travel. That stretch could prove important for the Magic if they find themselves in the Playoff race.
But even that home stand provides its own problems — the team returns home from a West Coast trip with a back to back at San Antonio and then begin the home stand against the Milwaukee Bucks. Orlando plays a game two days later against the Boston Celtics before getting the weekend off.
Another place they gain an advantage is with rest.
Orlando Magic
They will play 18 games with a rest disadvantage this season, according to Positive Residual. That is the fourth fewest That means a game where the Magic have less rest than their opponents. This is a good sign. Orlando should go into games more rested, or at least at the same level as their opponent. The NBA also worked this year to reduce games where one team has a clear rest advantage.
Orlando does not have as much of a comparative advantage in games where they have a rest advantage — 23 games is about the middle of the pack in the NBA — but they will be able to take advantage of the fact they will not be at as much of a disadvantage.
So how does the Magic shake out? With that seven-game home stand looming at the end of the season, Orlando’s schedule starts out very road-heavy.
Before January 1, 2018, the Magic will play 38 total games (about half the season). They will play 21 of those 38 games on the road, a fairly decent balance. However, they will play just five of 13 games in January at home. Meaning Orlando will play a lot of road games to start the season.
In fact, before January 1, the Magic will play the most road games in the entire NBA.
Nothing seems to loom larger than the Magic’s first big road trip from Nov. 10-15, just 11 games into the season.
Orlando will have to get itself going quicker than ever before this year. Orlando usually takes its first road trip in the first week of December, in 2017 that came 18 games into the season.
After the All-Star Break, if the Magic are involved in the Playoff race, they will play 25 games with 11 coming on the road. They will play just four games with a rest disadvantage in this time (the fewest in the league in that timeframe is three).
From a raw schedule standpoint, the Magic will play the Detroit Pistons, Indiana Pacers, Philadelphia 76ers and Toronto Raptors three times. All four of those teams are expected to compete for the Playoffs this year — although there are plenty who believe the Pacers may not reclaim their Playoff spot after trading away Paul George.
The Magic schedule does set itself up well for the Magic. But they have to navigate this early part of the season to get there and take advantage. That could be tough with a new, unproven team that has to come together. A steady start could be a good sign for the Magic.
Next: ESPN predicts modest improvement for Orlando Magic
Ultimately, Orlando will have to take care of itself if the team wants to find success in the 2018 season.