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ESPN projects Orlando Magic win totals and Playoff fate

By Philip Rossman-Reich

ORLANDO, FL - MARCH 22: Mario Hezonja #8 and Elfrid Payton #4 of the Orlando Magic are seen before the game against the Charlotte Hornets on March 22, 2017 at Amway Center in Orlando, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Fernando Medina/NBAE via Getty Images)
ORLANDO, FL - MARCH 22: Mario Hezonja #8 and Elfrid Payton #4 of the Orlando Magic are seen before the game against the Charlotte Hornets on March 22, 2017 at Amway Center in Orlando, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Fernando Medina/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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ESPN is running its predictions for the 2018 season, and the Orlando Magic turn out. . . OK. An improvement seems on its way, but with a warning.

The Orlando Magic have said for several years they would like to be playing meaningful games after the All-Star Break. That means competing for a Playoff spot, if not actually getting there.

With ample cap room, the team blindly tried to go for that goal last summer and fell woefully short.

The team is paying for those mistakes it seems. This summer did not see the team have much opportunity to get better or change the pieces around. New president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman has had to work with a lot of what was left to him. It is certainly a year for further evaluations.

The ultimate hope is the team can still make gains toward the Playoffs — no team goes into the season believing it cannot make the postseason or compete in some ways. But that may not necessarily be a make-or-break goal.

The kind of season the Magic are looking for is one where the team shows improvement and creates a clearer direction forward. It is not a Playoffs-or-bust season. Not like the 2017 season was.

At the very least, it feels like Orlando should try to get back to the 35-win level it was at in the 2016 season. That was a level where it looked like the team was taking steps forward and still had a bright future about them.

The Magic have several young assets. But this team feels closer to the end of their road than that team two years ago. That does not mean there is a way forward. That way forward becomes clearer if the team can win. The urgency to win is a bit greater.

It seems from every indication, the Magic did that. Adding value free agents like Jonathon Simmons and veteran minimum salaries like Arron Afflalo and Marreese Speights seems to have pushed the team to a higher level. It has fans optimistic about the future.

These additions might be a reason to believe the Magic might make the Playoffs.

ESPN.com’s Real Plus-Minus is not quite ready to pull the trigger. But the statistical model does project the Magic to improve on their 29-win season.

ESPN has the Magic finishing the season with 32.2 wins, finishing 10th in the Eastern Conference. Kevin Pelton though says things are not absolutely optimistic:

"RPM isn’t optimistic about the Magic’s chances of improving last season’s disappointing defense, ranked 24th in the league on a per-possession basis. In fact, with newcomer Marreese Speights claiming regular minutes in the frontcourt, Orlando is projected to drop to 27th in defensive rating."

The Magic are trying to build their team on defense once again. Between Aaron Gordon, Jonathon Simmons and Bismack Biyombo, along with rookie Jonathan Isaac, the team wants to become the defensive juggernaut Frank Vogel was known for. Jonathon Simmons and Jonathan Isaac certainly fit that defensive mantra. Speights does not. Neither really do Arron Afflalo or Shelvin Mack. And other players on the roster still do not fit.

Orlando is returning its starting lineup to end last season — Elfrid Payton, Evan Fournier, Terrence Ross, Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic. That unit struggled defensively, giving up 110 points per 100 possessions. The team expects some improvement, but statistics do not reflect this. They can only look back.

That could mean the Magic have some room to improve even on this 32-win projection.

And it would not take much for the Magic to make the Playoffs with the way things are setting up in the Eastern Conference.

ESPN projects the Detroit Pistons would nab the eighth seed at 35 wins. That would be the fewest wins for an eighth seed in the league since the Boston Celtics got to the Playoffs in 1995 with 35 wins.

This feels like an Eastern Conference that is going to race to the bottom with so many stars leaving. The Magic, even with a defense that is projected to get worse by this RPM metric, are in the running for the postseason.

If Orlando can take a little bit of a step up and get on a run at the right time, the Playoffs seem a possibility. And the numbers seem to suggest it.

The Magic had a good offseason, adding some depth and experience to the team. It seems they are ready to take that next step. And that they can.

Right now everyone is playing the game on paper. The Magic look better on paper.

Next: Orlando Magic happy with offseason, others like it too

But a reasonable increase — like the three-win improvement ESPN projects — seems likely. Whether that gets the team to the Playoffs or close to the Playoffs will play out during the season.