ESPN Insider projects lots of stars, strong years for Dennis Smith, Jonathan Isaac
The NBA Draft is a futures game and it is extremely hard to predict. ESPN Insider offered its thoughts and sees a lot of stars on the way in 2017.
The NBA Draft, at the end of the day, is a futures game. It is everyone’s best bet on the future. And, as everyone knows, the future is notoriously hard to predict. Humans can be especially fickle as they grow up and hard to project.
There are plenty of stories about strong prospects who cannot seem to get themselves going in the NBA, whether that is because of a poor situation, a run of injuries or just a bad guess. There are a lot of bad guesses in NBA history. And plenty of players slip through the cracks.
The bottom line is no matter how much scouting a team does and how much preparation they put into the Draft process, there is no telling how a young player (especially at 19 or 20) will react to the rigors of the NBA.
The one thing that has become clear is that this year’s NBA Draft has a lot of people willing to bet big. Lots of players who many scouts and NBA observers believe can turn into stars or have star potential and plenty of depth later on in the Draft for players to pick up on.
For the Orlando Magic, with four picks in the top 35, there is a lot of opportunity in this Draft.
But everyone is, rightfully, focused on the pick with the sixth overall pick. This pick has the potential to be transformative. This is the pick where the Magic could net a potential star.
Typically the sixth pick is on the borderline between grabbing a star player and getting a solid role player or starter. But this year does have the potential to become a star.
Orlando Magic
That is what Chad Ford of ESPN.com believes too.
In his annual tiering of the Draft — his process of grouping players together in where they might fall among how executives and scouts talk about them and their potential — he lists 10 potential All Stars, with Markelle Fultz and Lonzo Ball at the very top.
But that still leaves eight potential all-star talents in his view for this draft. That puts the Magic in a great position.
Ford has organized the draft board like this for several years. He says it is the largest grouping of players in the first two tiers he has ever seen.
As many fans have discussed, having to pick between Dennis Smith, Jayson Tatum or Jonathan Isaac is not a bad thing. Even players like Malik Monk and Frank Ntilikina have tons of potential to grow and would be moderate reaches at six. But the star potential is clearly there.
Ford even tiered players within tier two with De’Aaron Fox, Josh Jackson and Jayson Tatum getting superstar consideration and Dennis Smith and Malik Monk as unanimous tier two (All-Star potential) players. That is seven players. The Magic are guaranteed to get a player with All-Star potential in this Draft.
Even at No. 25, Ford believes the Magic could get a player in his fifth tier — a rotation player. Players like Bam Adebayo, Terrance Ferguson, Frank Jackson, TJ Leaf, Ivan Rabb and D.J. Wilson. That is certainly what the Magic are hoping for with the 25th pick, someone who could fill a role for the team.
So how do we differentiate these players?
That is the bigger part of the guessing game. There is no way to project how a player will play going from college to the NBA accurately. As much as analytics try. There are a few indicators that help form a working hypothesis.
That is what Kevin Pelton of ESPN Insider does every year with the college class. He tries to create a projected WAR (wins above replacement) for the players based on their college statistics and then weighted some by Chad Ford’s big board. He has uncovered some draft steals and players who slip through the cracks in the quest for potential.
This metric essentially projects how a player will contribute his rookie year. His system really likes Lonzo Ball most of all. But he also sees some potential value in two players who are squarely in the Magic’s sights at No. 6.
Jonathan Isaac ranks really well, coming in third in the projection system. The 6-foot-10 forward has drawn insane comparisons to Kevin Durant and more rational comparisons to Rashard Lewis. He has great length and defensive chops. But he has to become more assertive on offense, where his size can help him become a strong offensive force, including his developing 3-point shooting.
Isaac has to learn how to create his own shot. But he also has shown tremendous physical gifts and ability on the defensive end. And that projects well to the NBA level.
Right behind him is Dennis Smith. Smith has quickly become the favored prospect for the Magic in several mock drafts. And he is a player Pelton says the statistics really like.
"Smith’s production was remarkably similar to Fultz’s, and his projected player win percentage as a rookie (the per-minute component of WARP, akin to PER) is actually slightly better. Fultz’s stats-only WARP projection is still higher because he’s six months younger, he has superior size and teams might be concerned about the ACL tear Smith suffered in high school."
A player like Josh Jackson and Jayson Tatum do not project well statistically. Of course, the draft is more than projections and numbers. Both Jackson and Tatum are considered top prospects in this Draft. As they should.
It is difficult to know how much to believe in these projections. But it cannot be a bad thing. It certainly bodes well for their rookie years. From there, the future remains very hidden.
Next: OMD Roundtable: Draft dreaming and scheming
This guessing game comes to a close Thursday, June 22. The end is almost here. And then the real work begins developing these players in the building.