T.J. Leaf was a big beneficiary of the UCLA Bruins’ crazy pace and offense. If he can get his shooting to translate, he could be a solid first round pick.
Offense reigns in the NBA today. No one has to watch much more than the NBA Finals to see that.
The Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers have hoisted 3-pointers at historic rates, putting an exclamation point on a season that saw the spread offenses and 3-point shot become the norm rather than the exception. It is the direction the league is headed and everyone is trying to play some form of catch up — or create their own twist.
If the Orlando Magic proved one thing this season, it is that it is very difficult to go against this grain. And the Magic are ready to go in the opposite direction.
Even before the Magic made the trade that began transforming the team’s style of play to a more modern spread offense, the Magic lacked a stretch-4. They needed someone with size who could stretch the floor and hit 3-pointers. Aaron Gordon and Jeff Green both provided versatility, but neither was a strong 3-point shooter.
Undoubtedly a strech-4 is a huge need in the NBA these days. That makes what they can do all the more valuable.
No team embraced offense-only in the NCAA quite like the UCLA Bruins.
Lonzo Ball has rightfully taken a lot of the headlines. His shooting and playmaker were key to the Bruins’ stellar season. But he had plenty of help, including a strong stretch-4 in T.J. Leaf.
Leaf was the secondary scorer, taking in a lot of the assists from Ball. But Leaf is a talented player in his own right, not just someone who benefited from Ball’s exploits.
He averaged 16.3 points and 8.2 rebounds per game. Leaf shot 46.6 percent from beyond the arc and posted a 65.2 percent effective field goal percentage. He was capable of stepping out beyond the 3-point line and driving to the basket or finishing around the basket in traffic.
Leaf has a lot of skills to like. And in this modern NBA that asks bigs to work on the perimeter as much as they need to work in the paint, Leaf is in a position to succeed.
The Good
The first place to start with T.J. Leaf is that he plays like a modern power forward.
Power forwards in the NBA today are versatile and athletic. They can attack some off the dribble and hit the 3-pointer. They do not look very much like the gritty, tough defenders of yesteryear.
This is the perfect time for Leaf to step into the NBA. His value likely would not be any higher.
Leaf was a strong 3-point shooter at UCLA and was smart deciding when to attack off the dribble. Opponents knew they had to close out hard on Leaf and he was able to easily sidestep or drive off those closeouts to get to the basket. On the move, he was able to get to the basket and score fairly easily.
He is not merely a spot-up shooter. That is an important thing to note about him. He will not be a stand-still stretch-4. Leaf looks to get to the basket when he can.
And once there, he can finish above the rim a bit. He has surprising athleticism and will finish with a thunderous jam when he gets close to the basket. This in addition to a deft touch on the move off his drives.
Leaf also will attack the glass aggressively. He was able to go out of his area for rebounds and come flying in to grab boards. That enabled him to work closer to the basket.
He is certainly an opportunist. He knows the right time to attack to time himself for rebounds and for dives and cuts tot he basket to receive lobs too.
That makes Leaf valuable within an offense. He will provide the team that drafts him plenty of versatility and ability to stretch the floor and work close to the basket.
The Bad
While Leaf showcases a lot of offensive ability, he does not have a lot of defense to show for it. No one on UCLA really was a strong defender, actually.
But Leaf’s defensive weaknesses were very pronounced. They are central to his key weakness.
Leaf does not have a lot of bulk and will get eaten up in the post. While he has some rudimentary post moves, he is not going to be able to work his way around other players. Most of his post moves end with him taking tough shots over the defense rather than beating them to the basket.
For all of Leaf’s athleticism too, he does not use it well outside of his jumps to the rim. And even some of his leaps are not super impressive. He is athletic but not a super athlete, in the NBA sense.
His poor defense and poor lateral quickness will hurt him at the NBA level. So too will his lack of strength to defend the few post-bound power forwards. Leaf will be a non-factor defensively.
While Leaf puts up gaudy statistics, a lot of that is because of UCLA’s insane pace and offensive style. His rebound numbers look great, for example, but he posted only a 14.9 percent total rebound rate and a 19.7 percent defensive rebound rate.
Those are not great numbers for a potential rebounder. With his lack of strength, he could get pushed around on the boards and lose a lot of that benefit from his college days.
This is all to say, Leaf put up numbers in college but it is unclear how much of that translates. His shooting should translate. It usually carries over. But no one seems to be completely sure just how much of Leaf’s production will carry over.
How much of his production was part of UCLA’s system? This is always a question that comes up with college prospects from system-heavy teams. The Bruins were certainly a system-heavy team.
Draft Sites Say
Julian Applebome, DraftExpress
"Measuring at 6’10’ and 225 pounds Leaf has excellent size at the power forward position. He is not the most physically imposing player and could benefit from some added strength which would help him in the rebounding, defense, and finishing departments. While Leaf lacks ideal strength and physicality on the interior, he moves fluidly for someone his size, and has the explosiveness and athleticism to run the floor and finish above the rim in space. He certainly benefited from playing in an up-tempo pace and space style alongside Lonzo Ball where he ranked in the 89th percentile in transition offense (per Synergy), but his ability to get up and down the court should translate well at the NBA level."
William Desautelle III, NBADraft.net
"A versatile offensive player who shows the ability to play both inside and out … He has a European-like skillset and does a great job of exploiting mismatches on offense … Although he is not an advanced post player at this stage in his career, he has shown flashes of good footwork and a variety of post moves from the block. . . The biggest area of concern for Leaf at this point is his lack of strength … He needs to add leg and core strength to better absorb contact and maintain balance … The good news is that he is only 19 years old and that there’s plenty of time for his frame to fill out."
Final Word
T.J. Leaf is an interesting prospect for sure. And what he can provide may very well be in the eye of the beholder.
On one hand, Leaf seems like he is a perfect power forward for the modern NBA. He can step out and hit 3-pointers. Leaf has enough athleticism to get past his defender as they close out and finish at the rim. Leaf has a lot of tools at his disposal to be successful.
Give Leaf an open lane, and he will be able to finish at the rim too. He can dunk it hard.
But there are plenty of pronounced weaknesses too.
He does not have a ton of strength or ability to work the low post on either end. He is going to get outmuscled a lot the closer he gets tot he basket. Leaf also does not have the footwork to beat players in the post, other than trying to shoot over them.
Defensively, Leaf will struggle. While he does have good north-south quickness and athleticism, he does not have a lot of lateral quickness. He is going to struggle if he is drawn away from the basket.
He put up solid numbers at UCLA, but a lot of that was because of the team’s system. It emphasized fast breaks and getting out in transition. The team pushed the pace and put on onslaught on offense. It is hard to say how much of what Leaf does will translate.
The place to start with Leaf is his shooting. If he can get his shooting to translate, it seems certain he can find a place in the NBA. That is such a key to the modern power forward. The NBA can get him to fill out the rest.
Next: 2017 Orlando Magic Draft Preview: Who is Josh Jackson?
With Leaf, it is truly what is in the eye of the beholder.