Josh Jackson presents one of the most versatile and smart basketball players in the draft. The only question is whether he can shoot it with the best.
The league’s age restrictions for Draft entry are back on the forefront for commissioner Adam Silver.
At his Finals press conference, he brought up the league had a few discussions about changing the league’s rule preventing American high school seniors from jumping straight to the NBA. At the time the league instituted this rule, it was done to protect owners from themselves largely. There was something unseemly about guaranteeing millions of dollars to 18 years olds who had (mostly) never ben on their own.
The risk was greater than the reward for the most part. But no team was going to keep themselves from passing on talent.
A year of play at the NCAA level would, at least, give them the time to season. Or, at the very least, give NBA executives and evaluators a chance to cover the bases.
But there are players who are clearly beyond their years. There are players who have superstar written all over them and are can’t-miss prospects. There are also players who just look NBA ready right out of high school — or after one year of college — and still have lots of room to improve.
This is where Kansas Jayhawks forward Josh Jackson falls.
Jackson has a lot of room to grow and a lot of flaws to his game. But his basketball sense and IQ are far beyond his years. Jackson will find a way to contribute as he continues to improve his skills.
And in college, he even showed he can improve on some of his weaknesses.
This is all part of the equation that makes Jackson such a promising player. It goes beyond his averages — 16.3 points and 7.4 rebounds per game on 51.3 percent shooting. He has great length and was a solid defender. He did all this without a reliable 3-point shot.
The Jayhawks had a stacked roster that had them as one of the favorites to win the NCAA Tournament. Jackson played a role that enabled him to shine, with veteran leaders filling in the other gaps. That helped Jackson show off perhaps the most promising part of his game, his basketball IQ.
Jackson has a long way to go to grow into the star he could become. But his freshman year suggests he has a strong base to begin from as he enters the NBA Draft.
The Good
Josh Jackson’s freshman year statistics jump off the page. He averaged 16.3 points per game and 7.4 rebounds per game, showing a strong amount of versatility. He was able to score in a number of different ways too.
Jackson worked well in the mid-range game, could attack the basket, could cut off the ball and occasionally hit the 3-pointer. He always found a way to stay involved even considering some of his weaknesses on the floor.
That is what stood out most about him — what he did when he did not have the ball. Or, at least, that is what always stood out to me.
Jackson is not a good 3-point shooter — 37.8 percent — or at least not a reliable one. Teams were perfectly happy playing off him on the perimeter to try to collapse the paint. But Jackson has incredible basketball intelligence. He knew just the right moment to cut to the basket or make himself available for a pass around the basket.
That innate skill helps him with rebounds too. He is a slender 6-foot-8 and played a lot of power forward in college, but he was able to hold his own. Rebounding typically translates and his rebounding numbers were solid for someone who should play on the perimeter most of the time.
Orlando Magic
Jackson’s real strength is not on the offensive end, although he is a fully capable offensive player. His real strength is on defense.
At Kansas, he showed plenty of quickness and length to be a defensive stopper. According to Sports-Reference, Jackson posted a +5.7 defensive box plus-minus. At the NBA level, he projects as a solid defender at either forward position.
Jackson just does not have a lot of flaws to his game. And he covers up whatever flaws he has exceedingly well.
He has the athleticism and length to defend anywhere. He can also use that athleticism to attack off the dribble. He was able to get past defenders and get to the basket. And Jackson had a tendency to hit big shots. He was a very solid player in so many ways.
That high talent level and his general basketball IQ makes him one of the most prized prospects in this Draft.
The Bad
The biggest knock against Josh Jackson is undoubtedly his shooting.
Jackson is not a bad shooter by any means, but his 3-point shot is very inconsistent. He shot 37.8 percent from beyond the arc. More alarmingly, he shot 56.6 percent from the foul line. Typically a poor free throw percentage suggests a player who is going to struggle to translate to the NBA 3-point line.
There are legitimate concerns about Jackson’s translating with his shot.
Jackson’s shooting would come and go. But he finished the season on a major high. In the last 17 games of the season, Jackson averaged 17.6 points per game and hit on 48.1 percent of his 3-pointers. He can indeed hit the three. But it should be noted his free throw shooting still hovered at worse than 60 percent.
That free throw shooting is also a major weakness. Especially if he is not going to be able to shoot from the outside consistently. If he is going to be a mid-range player or driver, getting to the foul line is absolutely critical to creating efficiency.
That will be among the big questions for Jackson.
His questionable shooting from the outside will also bring his position into play.
While Jackson has the positional versatility to play either forward position, he largely played power forward at the collegiate level. There, his shooting was somewhat hidden by keeping him closer to the basket. That also gave him a distinct athletic advantage over many of his opponents.
That advantage goes away when he plays small forward. He has the athleticism and defensive skill to keep up, but he could find himself having trouble attacking the basket offensively at that position. Especially considering his shooting inconsistency.
Jackson is listed at 6-foot-8, so he may not quite have the size to play power forward full time. Although, the league is trending smaller. So maybe this is the right moment for Jackson to begin his career.
Draft Sites Say
Jonathan Givony & Mike Schmitz, DraftExpress
"Jackson’s physical profile is a mixed bag. He has very good size for the wing at 6’8, and is a quick-twitch and highly explosive athlete who plays above the rim with ease and covers ground seamlessly defensively. With that said, his small hands, 6’10 wingspan and narrow 207 pound frame may limit his effectiveness playing the small-ball power forward role he was so successful filling in college, and the fact that he’s an older freshman at 20 years old makes you wonder how much more strength his frame will carry down the line."
NBADraft.net
"One of the main things that jumps out at you is JJ’s versatility on both sides of the ball … From an offensive standpoint, he possesses a very high Basketball IQ that allows him to be aware of where his teammates are on the court … While he doesn’t play the role of a primary ball handler for Kansas, he’s averaging a very impressive 3.1 assists per game. . . . Jackson’s biggest weakness right now is his shooting … While his athleticism, and his ability to play within himself leaves him with a .52% FG clip, he’s shooting just 28% from deep, and 54% from the charity stripe … His shot is not broken or beyond fixing, and he does have touch, but it does have a little hitch that will take time to correct."
Final Word
There is a lot to like about Josh Jackson. He is a great scorer who can stay involved even when he does not have the ball. He is a strong defender already and has positional versatility to play at multiple areas on the floor.
More than that, what impresses about him is just his basketball smarts. If a defender strays too far from him or gets sucked into the ball, he has the smarts to cut baseline and go straight to the basket. He is more than an opportune cutter, he is a smart cutter.
Jackson is always involved in the play, even when he does not have the ball. That is even more impressive considering his shooting woes.
Jackson’s shooting is his biggest weakness. He had moments where he was draining shots and stretching the floor with his 3-point shot. It is a positive sign that his shot can continue to develop.
But his free throw shooting is very concerning. It suggests he may not be ready to step out to the 3-point line in the NBA.
Kansas Jayhawks Basketball
Free throw shooting can improve. So can 3-point shooting. There are plenty of players with Jackson’s physical profile and defensive prowess who did not come into the league with a 3-point shot and grew into at least consistency. That leaves Jackson’s outlook pretty high.
Still, he is a player who comes with plenty of questions. If he cannot shoot, can he play small forward? Will that shot develop? Will his poor free throw shooting create an inefficient mess of a player who can drive but not create?
And a midseason criminal charge has been settled but still hangs over him in this process.
But the overall outlook on Jackson is good. He has always silenced all those doubters about his game in one way or another.
He should come to the NBA ready made to be a defender. And he will find a way to contribute — whether it is crashing the glass, attacking the basket, hitting the occasional 3-pointer or being a dangerous cutter.
Next: 2017 Orlando Magic Draft Preview: Who is Derrick White?
Jackson is too smart of a basketball player and too skilled not to find some role on a NBA team somewhere.