Orlando Magic Daily Mailbag Volume 23: Draft to the Future!

The Orlando Magic have a lot of questions to answer. They all start with the NBA Draft and the questions for the roster. I answer those in this Mailbag.

The Orlando Magic have been rather quiet for the last few weeks — ever since hiring president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman.

Surely the new head honcho is getting settled into his new digs and getting the lay of the land. As he promised, he has likely sat down and listened to remaining staff, especially coach Frank Vogel and former interim general manager Matt Lloyd. Weltman has a lot of sorting to do and to devise his plans to improve the Magic this season.

He is putting his imprint on the franchise slowly but surely.

The first big decision for Weltman comes in the Draft. The Magic may be done with the first step of their offseason in finding that leader. But they still have a long way to go to make the Playoffs, or even talk seriously about them.

With Weltman’s hire out of the way, all of our attention turns to the June 22 NBA Draft. It will prove to be a critical rebuilding piece for Weltman to play. With the depth in this NBA Draft, the Magic feel they can get a quality player at the sixth overall pick.

Orlando has not reportedly had any other prospects in that would get picked with the sixth overall pick since Dennis Smith came to town before the Lottery. It feels reasonable to expect the Magic to bring Smith back in closer to the Draft to work out in front of the new staff and meet the new men in charge.

Things will pick up fairly quickly as the Magic hurtle toward the Draft. Two weeks will go by very very quickly.

There are a lot of questions about the Magic and their future. And since the Magic do not seem to be in the answering mood — and probably Orlando Magic Daily is more familiar with the roster than Jeff Weltman at this point — it is time to open up the Orlando Magic Daily Mailbag.

We opened up the mailbag to your questions about the Magic and the team’s future as we prepare for the NBA Draft.

Usually, we sit here at the NBA Draft and identify needs the team needs to add to improve next season. After last year’s 29-win season, it is hard to say the team has a specific need.

The team needs everything.

But, yes, there do seem to be a few specific things the Magic need. I would characterize them less as position-based and more just a general need.

The Magic need 3-point shooting. They need a playmaking scorer. Really, they need a star.

In that sense, yes, grabbing a point guard is more a want rather than a need. It is hard to say exactly how the new management feels about Elfrid Payton. At the very least, Elfrid Payton has shown in three years he is a serviceable starter. He can deliver on occasion, but he has lacked consistency.

That has had plenty of people eyeing the point guards in this year’s Draft. And there are plenty.

But that does not necessarily mean the Magic should target and draft a point guard for sure this year. If a player like Jayson Tatum or even Josh Jackson slips to No. 6, the Magic have to consider taking them. They should not be married to a position at all.

With the sixth overall pick, the Magic should absolutely take the best player available.

A player like Tatum certainly would seem to bump into Aaron Gordon. Like Aaron Gordon, Tatum is a combo forward who struggles shooting from beyond the arc, although he was better than Gordon was in college. So the fit is far from perfect drafting a player like Tatum.

But fit is not the most important thing for the Magic right now. Right now, the team has to assume every position is up in the air. Gordon maybe less so, but even he cannot feel completely safe.

The Magic need a star. If they believe someone other than a point guard can be that star, they should take him. This is almost a reset. Orlando should not feel committed to anyone and look to move players who do not fit the puzzle anymore.

So for now, a starting point guard is more a want than a need. But more so because everything is a need.

I guess that last question leads to this inevitable question, doesn’t it?

If the Orlando Magic are in the market for a point guard in the upcoming NBA Draft at No. 6 that surely means the days are numbered for Elfrid Payton. There is no getting around this.

Ask most Magic fans and observers, and they would probably agree with the last question –point guard is a position of huge need. Orlando has a lot of solid players. But inconsistency at point guard and Payton’s lack of shooting has held the team back.

I am not quite sold on that narrative. Payton has a lot of shortcomings. He may not be the long-term answer at point guard, but he has proven himself more than a solid option.

I have long said this thing about Nikola Vucevic — and I believe the same holds true for Elfrid Payton. Nikola Vucevic is a solid center option at a position that is hard to fill — just ask the Orlando Magic from 1996 until 2005. You hold onto that until a better option comes along.

That is where Payton is at. He is a solid option. Someone you hold onto until a better option comes around.

That better option may very well come in the Draft. And valuing Payton as he enters extension talks this summer and potentially restricted free agency next summer is pretty hard at this point.

So to answer the question, I must remain coy.

I think even if the Magic draft a point guard like Dennis Smith with the sixth overall pick, they will keep Payton for some “veteran” stability. And likely because his trade value may increase closer to the trade deadline than it would not at the Draft.

As with all deals, it really depends on who the Magic can get in return. I am never in favor of trading a guy just to trade a guy. There are times you have to do it just to get something for an asset you do not intend on retaining. But generally, there is a reason every player is in the NBA, and they should not be so easily discarded.

And so unless a good deal comes along for Payton, I do not think the Magic should just out and out trade Payton.

For now, I believe Payton’s trade value is too mysterious. I am not sure the team will get that great deal. And if the team has intentions of winning, Payton would help more immediately than a rookie — for now.

So I will say Payton starts the year on the Magic. But he probably does not end the year with the Magic.

I answered some of this question above regarding Elfrid Payton. But maybe it deserves a bigger answer here. The same goes for Nikola Vucevic and Evan Fournier.

The easy answer is I do not know. It is really hard to figure out what value any of these three players have on their own. They each have their own individual problems that will shrink their value — some of it nothing to do with their play.

Let’s start with Payton. The question here, unlike the previous question, is not whether the Magic should trade Payton but what they could get for him.

To me, it is hardest to figure out how other teams view Payton. He clearly, through the triple doubles he accumulated late last season, has the ability to be a solid player in the league. He needs a better situation to work though. A team is not about to pay a ransom for that kind of player.

Payton’s restricted free agency will add another wrinkle to that equation. I am not sure there is a team out there who believes in Payton so much to go out of their way for his restricted free agent rights. At this point for Payton, I think you could get a struggling rookie or a lower-tiered veteran. Pretty much role players.

That is the thing about all three of these players. Trading them is only going to net your role players. I do not think you can trade either Elfrid Payton, Nikola Vucevic or Evan Fournier and get an upgrade. I do not think either player has that kind of value — or potential in him.

Vucevic is another great example. This current trade market is saturated with centers with obvious flaws that do not quite fit the modern NBA. It is going to be tough to trade Vucevic for equal value with players like Brook Lopez, Jahlil Okafor and probably even Dwight Howard on the market too.

So, again, I think the Magic would have to be willing to take on a bad contract to move Vucevic in addition to a player they want. And that is likely a bench player too, not a starter.

Like Payton, the Magic probably value Vucevic more than any other team. And so that makes it difficult to make a deal that improves the team.

Fournier’s contract is a bit different. He is in the second year of a four-year deal that pays him $17 million per year. So the Magic would have to take back equal salary and likely take on a bad contract to move him.

This is all to say, the Magic would have to take a step backward talent wise to move any of these players, at least for now. They have to take a step forward on the court to change that value.

From Michael Martin, via comments

"Phillip, what do you think? Should Orlando begin to start to build now thru the draft(s) over the next few years and add pieces also thru free agency, or should they trade picks this draft plus one or some of our young core players for a 2nd tier veteran to help build around?"

The Orlando Magic are definitely in a weird spot. I do not think there is any denying that.

There is an appetite for the team to make the Playoffs after a franchise-long five years out of the Playoff picture. Fans and ownership all want the team to take the next step sooner rather than later. But, after five years and seemingly going nowhere, the team needs a talent reset.

And Magic CEO Alex Martins is not backing off his belief the team should be competing for championships and building a sustainable winner. It is tough to do that trading for a second-tier veteran.

The complex answer here is the Magic should sort of pursue both paths to accomplish these seemingly competing goals.

The Magic should value the draft above all things right now. The sixth pick should probably be off limits for a trade unless the team is trading up to get the player they absolutely want.

Any success the Magic are going to have is going to be built around the draft. They have to value these picks and look to add cheap young players who can contribute.

If the Magic want to package a couple picks to move up this year, that is fine. Orlando needs these players to supplement their roster and grow it. They need to get younger and more athletic. It was a huge weakness last year.

But, if Orlando has the chance to add a second-tier veteran using players already on the roster, they should go for that too. Orlando needs a veteran to mentor their young player or keep the boat steady as the young player grows and develops into a star. Think of how Dwight Howard grew with Steve Francis and Grant Hill in starring roles until Howard was ready to take over.

That is not to say the Magic will get a player as good as Howard in this year’s Draft. But the Draft is a start. It has to be the start and the core piece to the Magic’s rebuild.

Just like it was in the last rebuild. Just different this time, you know?

Orlando needs to supplement their draft picks with quality veterans. Even veterans who are quasi-stars. The Magic never got that in the last five years.

From Michael Bowers, via e-mail

"Fultz, Ball and Jackson will be gone. Looking more and more likely Fox will be too. That means we’re stuck with the 2nd tier of Tatum, Isaac, Smith, Monk. Please convince me this isn’t depressing. Please make a case that we won’t just draft another mediocre player that is either out of the league or becomes a decent bench option in 5 years. That seems to be our MO."

I can sense the panic there. And yes Markelle Fultz and Lonzo Ball seem like surefire stars. But that next tier is very good too!

De’Aaron Fox, Josh Jackson, Jayson Tatum and Dennis Smith all have star potential. Jonathan Isaac is full of potential. Malik Monk is a sharpshooter. There is more than six good — dare I say, very good — players in this Draft.

This is not the 2013 Draft where the Magic, at the second pick, were knowingly taking a player that was pretty fully formed in Victor Oladipo. If Oladipo became a star, that would have been a bonus. Everyone saw him as a solid role player on defense at a minimum. That is what he is. Only his draft position — and the Magic’s poor roster building — force fitted him into “star.”

This is not the 2014 Draft where the Magic at four were one pick shy of the star range and had to take a home run swing on a raw forward hoping he could become a star with few other palatable options for a star-hungry team. The jury is still out on Aaron Gordon, but deliberations are nearly over.

This is not the 2015 Draft where, again, the Magic were one pick shy of a star and had to select from several potential role players and high upside risks. They went with their need and took Mario Hezonja, the best shooter in the Draft at the time. That was a swing and a miss.

Any of the seven or eight players I mentioned above would have been taken second in 2013, or fourth in 2014 or fifth in 2015. These are the kind of players the Magic were hoping for the last five years and never really got the chance to pick.

These are potential stars.

So missing out on Fultz and Ball — or even Tatum, Fox or Jackson — hurts. Those players seem to have a better track at becoming star players.

But Smith is a really good scorer. He can get into the lane and create for others. Everything feels like it will translate. And he should only get better as he recovers from an ACL injury he suffered his senior year.

Monk is a flamethrowing shooter. Everyone remembers how quickly he can light up a scoreboard.

And Jonathan Isaac has a lot of the physical tools necessary to take the next step. It is just about putting them all together.

All these players have risks — every player in the Draft has a risk. And the risk is greater at six than at one or two. But the Magic will get a good player at six. I am sure of that.

From Jonathan Leonard, via e-mail

"Got a couple of questions for you to pick from: 1. Which current player, on the roster, is most likely to be traded at the NBA draft? 2. Since the team needs lots of help at all positions, which player is most likely to be drafted at #6?"

I have answered a few of these questions in the course of this mailbag. But let’s put it all in one place.

I will start with No. 2. The Magic do need a lot of help at all positions. As I said, the team does not really have any positional needs. It just needs to get better.

So I cannot say then what player is most likely to be drafted at No. 6. I cannot tell which direction the Magic want to go. Except to say they will take the best player available. That part makes the most sense. And it is the direction the team should go.

At this point, the three players most likely available at No. 6 are Dennis Smith, Malik Monk and Jonathan Isaac. Jayson Tatum might slip to sixth. De’Aaron Fox might slip to sixth. There are a lot of different moving parts. It is the draft after all.

I think any of those options will be fine for the magic. They all have star potential and all can fill a role pretty immediately for the Magic. The only players I would avoid at the top of this draft are Lauri Markkanen, Zach Collins and (maybe) Frank Ntilikina. I think around pick seven or eight there is a significant drop-off in talent to the middle of the draft.

I am very confident the Magic will get a good player at No. 6.

But the Magic will need more to get over the hump. A draft pick alone is not going to change the Magic’s fortunes completely. They need an influx of talent too.

And the best way for Orlando to improve — aside from internal improvement, which for many players seems increasingly unlikely to the degree the team needs — is to make a deal.

As I described above, the three trade candidates between Evan Fournier, Nikola Vucevic and Elfrid Payton are not going to be easy to trade. Not without taking a bit of a sacrifice.

I think Payton is ultimately the easiest to trade because he is on a rookie deal. Someone somewhere has to give him some value — although not as much as the Magic do.

But I think the easiest player to trade (outside Aaron Gordon) is off-board. I think it is Terrence Ross. Ross still has a fair amount of mystery and hope in his development — judging by the way Magic fans talked about him when he came over. And he is on a very affordable contract — $10.5 million per year the next two years.

Unlike Vucevic, Terrence Ross’ skills still have significant value throughout the league. Someone somewhere will believe they can make Ross into the best, 50-point scoring Terrence Ross. The Magic are probably not ready to deal him immediately. He is one of their best shooters at the moment. But Ross would have a market if the team makes him available.

Next: How the Orlando Magic should handle their free agents

That will do it for this edition of the mailbag. There were a lot of questions, so I will be back again next week to answer more of your questions!