Jayson Tatum is a throwback superstar, able to isolate and create from the mid-post. That makes him one of the most promising prospects in this year’s Draft.
There is a certain feeling in a basketball game when one player isolates another. It is a sort of test of individual brilliance in the middle of a team game. It gets glorified on streets and by youngsters. One-on-one play is a standard to say “who is best” even if it has nothing to do with the actual flow of the game.
Then again, these are the moments we remember. It is Michael Jordan finding space against Bryon Russell. It is Stephen Curry being unable to dribble his way into a clean look at a 3-pointer over Kevin Love. It is Kobe Bryant breaking down the defense, forcing the help to free up Metta World Peace (then Ron Artest) for an open 3-pointer.
The game, at the end, does boil down to a series of one-on-one plays. It is about a player beating his man, wreaking havoc on the defense and scoring.
To be a top guy in the NBA, a player has to be able to create shots from nothing. He has to be able to work his way into the defense and find baskets when the offense breaks down.
The Orlando Magic have certainly missed this kind of player. The kind of player who can do all this — clear the floor and let him work to get shots efficiently.
Orlando Magic
There are some strong one-on-one players in this Draft at the top. Markelle Fultz certainly seems like the best one-on-one player in the draft. After him, the answer may clearly be Jayson Tatum from the Duke Blue Devils.
Tatum is a throwback kind of player in many ways. A pure isolationist, able to catch the ball in the mid-post and jab step and make his way to the basket or into an open shot.
But Tatum is more than that. He is the next Carmelo Anthony in some ways, but Tatum does other things really well too.
Tatum has good size to attack the glass and does not need to be the center of attention. He can produce even without the ball in his hands offensively. He is always a threat. Tatum stands out in some ways by what he does when he is not standing out.
There are plenty of questions whether a player who scores the way Tatum does can succeed in the NBA. But the talent was undeniable. As he got more comfortable at Duke and with the college game, Tatum seemed only to get better.
At just 19 years old, there is no reason to believe Tatum will not continue to improve.
The Good
There is a lot to like with Jayson Tatum. He does not look like a freshman with the way he can and does attack defenses.
Tatum averaged 16.8 points and 7.3 rebounds per game last year for Duke. He shot 45.2 percent from the floor and posted a solid 50.7 percent effective field goal percentage. Tatum was a strong scorer who found ways to contribute in a number of different ways.
Undoubtedly, the top way Tatum contributes is in isolation in the mid-post. If anyone wants to compare him to Carmelo Anthony, that is certainly a fair thing to do. The spots he likes and the way he attacks the mid-post are very reminiscent of the New York Knicks forward.
Tatum has a quick jab step to get defenders off balance and can quickly take that space to get his deadly mid-range jumper off. Tatum shot 50.4 percent on 2-point field goals.
But Tatum is not just a mid-range maven. He can also attack and get to the basket. He does not have killer athleticism, but his quick release and his ability to create space enable him to get to the basket. At the college level, his 6-foot-8 frame gave him a huge advantage that he took on well.
Tatum is not just an offensive trick either. He was a really good rebounder at Duke for a player his size. He also made a lot of contributions on the defensive end with a +4.1 defensive box plus-minus for the season, according to Sports-Reference.
Take that number with a little grain of salt because of Duke’s non-conference schedule. But Tatum has the length and drive to become a quality defender.
What stands out about Tatum is what he can do when he does not have the ball. He finds ways to score and contribute even when his team is not featuring him in the offense. This could be critical in his development and growth as a player.
He is not simply a pure scorer. He is a versatile wing who can create his own shot and find it when the offense does not call for it.
The Bad
For all of Tatum’s scoring ability, how he scores is something that will raise some eyebrows around the NBA. For a team with championship aspirations, Tatum’s offensive skill set is not quite what the modern NBA calls for.
Sure, a team needs a star and someone who can create his own shot. But the days of superstars isolating on one side of the floor and looking to break down their defender in the mid-post are over. If a player does not have the 3-point shot as a major threat and uses mid-range jumpers extensively, their place in the league is questioned. Or at least their place as the central focus of a championship team.
Tatum is this kind of throwback player. He is a superstar of the early 2000s, maybe not one of the early 2010s.
That is not to say Tatum is not a willing passer — 2.1 assists per game. He is hardly a selfish player. But devolving into an isolation game is an inefficient way to play in the NBA, as necessary as that skill is.
Duke Blue Devils Basketball
Tatum too got a lot of his scoring opportunities on mid-post post-ups against slower defenders. In college, Tatum played primarily at power forward. He worked against a lot of bigger, slower defenders. He still stood out and was solid on the glass. So he was able to hold his own.
How does he handle quicker small forwards? Or is his future at power forward? Is he in the Paul Millsap-style of power forwards?
These are big questions. Especially for the Magic, who have a tweener power forward already in Aaron Gordon. In some respects, the Magic have to ask themselves what is the difference between Tatum and Tobias Harris (a John Hammond draft day acquisition, by the way)?
That may be a question for another day.
Tatum’s big weakness may be his 3-point shooting. He was a 34.2 percent shooter from beyond the arc last year. He will have to continue to boost his 3-point shooting. With 84.9 percent shooting from the foul line, there is something to suggest he can still improve as a shooter as he moves to the NBA game.
Draft Sites Say
Mike Schmitz & Derek Bodner, DraftExpress
"Tatum stands just over 6’8″ in shoes, with a 6’11” wingspan and an upper body that looks as if it can fill out over time as he matures physically. He combines that with an advanced, diversified skill level and flashes of two-way potential, which makes it easy to see why Tatum has been a top rated prospect all season long. Tatum’s bread and butter remains his strong isolation game, where nearly a quarter of his possessions came from, according to Synergy Sports Technology. Tatum was either too big, too quick, or too skilled for virtually any defender opponents could throw his way, and Duke exploited that whenever they could, particularly as the season moved along."
NBADraft.net
"6’8 smooth and versatile wing prospect … Good size, length, and fluidity for a wing. Uses size and length to shoot over defenders. Good half-court offensive game … Can score and distribute out of the high post. . . . A high level athlete, but not a jump out of the gym freak … Lacks strength for physical play at higher levels but should add strength in time … Has the ability to make difficult shots but tends to settle for deep contested shots. Fades away at times when it’s unnecessary."
Chris Stone, The Step Back
"Tatum has good size for a wing in the modern NBA. He has a 6-foot-11 wingspan and already weighs in at a reasonable 205 pounds at 19-years old. He’ll still need to add weight to his frame in order to compete against NBA level swingmen, but it should come as he ages and his body fills out. Tatum spent much of his season playing in a small ball power forward role for Duke. That will also likely end up being his best position as a professional as it allows him to maximize his strengths. On the offensive end, Tatum lives in the mid-range — 36.3 percent of his jumpers in the halfcourt came in that area, according to Synergy Sports — where he has the sort of fluid old school game that leans towards plenty of isolation plays and tough shot making. It’s a style that has endeared players like Kobe Bryant and Carmelo Anthony to NBA fans in recent memory."
Final Word
Jayson Tatum has all the makings of a becoming a strong star in the NBA. He can isolate with the best players in college and score in a variety of ways. he can work his way to the basket or create space to pull off a quick step back or sidestep jumper.
Tatum has a lot of innate tools that make him a very promising prospect next year.
It is not just his offensive and mid-post repertoire that make him intriguing. Tatum is a strong rebounder for his position and can contribute even when the ball is not in his hands. He has good size and length to attack the glass and uses it well defensively.
But you are drafting Tatum for his offense.
What is more promising is he got better as the season went on. In March — a game against the North Carolina Tar Heels, the ACC Tournament and the NCAA Tournament — Tatum averaged 19.1 points and 7.1 rebounds per game while shooting 48.9 percent from the floor.
When Tatum is on, he can score seemingly at will in isolation.
That is not the direction the league is going. And Tatum may be a dinosaur when he enters the league.
He will have to improve his passing and, most importantly, his 3-point shooting to become a true star in the NBA. In that same stretch in March, Tatum shot 30.9 percent from beyond the arc.
Tatum still has plenty of room to grow. He can still get significantly better by adding these skills. He should be a solid defender too.
Tatum has a lot of tools to draw on to become a successful player in the NBA one way or another. There is a reason he had some buzz to go with the top overall pick for a while and seemed like a lock to go in the top five.
Next: Mock Draft Roundup: The final list is set
The Magic are just on the outside of it, but one slip would make this promising player very available to them.