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Everything you need to know about the 2017 NBA Draft Lottery

By Philip Rossman-Reich

May 17, 2016; New York, NY, USA; General view during the NBA draft lottery at New York Hilton Midtown. The Philadelphia 76ers received the first overall pick in the 2016 draft. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
May 17, 2016; New York, NY, USA; General view during the NBA draft lottery at New York Hilton Midtown. The Philadelphia 76ers received the first overall pick in the 2016 draft. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports /
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Frank vogel, Mario Hezonja, Orlando Magic
Jan 20, 2017; Orlando, FL, USA; Orlando Magic head coach Frank Vogel talks with guard Mario Hezonja (8) against the Milwaukee Bucks during the first half at Amway Center. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /

What are the Magic’s chances?

So with the process laid out, what are the Orlando Magic’s chances of winning this thing? What are their odds?

Thanks to their 29-53 record this year, the Magic finished with the fifth-worst record in the league. Remember this gives them a certain number of combinations in the Lottery. We will get to the implications of that win on the last day in just a moment.

But first the raw numbers.

The Magic’s standing in the league gives them 88 number combinations for the NBA Draft Lottery — an 8.8 percent chance of winning the entire Lottery. The team has a 9.7 percent chance of winning the second pick and a 10.7 percent chance to win the third pick.

That gives the Magic a 29.2 percent chance at getting into the top three — essentially winning the Lottery.

The way the Lottery system is set up, the odds seemingly suggest at least one team will jump from the bottom three into the top three — the top team only has a 64.3 percent chance of landing in the top three, the third-place team has a 46.9 percent (we will come back to that, in a moment).

Orlando Magic
Orlando Magic /

Orlando Magic

So the Magic actually have the best odds of landing the sixth pick rather than the fifth pick. The team has a 26.1 percent chance of landing the fifth pick and a 36.0 percent chance of landing sixth. The team holds an 8.4 percent chance of landing seventh and 0.4 percent chance of landing the eighth pick.

Essentially, there is an 8.4 percent chance of two teams ranked worse than fifth jumping into the top three. The odds are heavily in the Magic’s favor to land a top-six pick in this Draft.

So why can’t the Magic land fourth? This is a good question and a relatively simple one to answer. If the Magic do not make the top three, there is no combination of teams ahead of them that could push them up to fourth. If you kick out a team from the top three, they fill in that fourth spot first.

So the Magic can only move up by getting into the top three. Otherwise, the first team kicked out of the top three lands the fourth pick.