With the Orlando Magic season a few weeks old, it is time to review the team’s statistical profile and mine lessons for how the Magic can improve.
The Orlando Magic had a few basic tenants they wanted to hold fast to as they went through their season. The roster they built — and envisioned — was a sign of that.
Frank Vogel teams have always done certain things well. They typically defend the paint well, walling it off from opponents. The offense would benefit from the strong defense by getting out in transition.
That plan, clearly, did not work out. After a strong first quarter to the season, the Magic’s defense collapsed, dragged down it would seem by the team’s poor offense. And the defense, which was sixth in the league through 21 games by defensive rating, sank into the bottom 10 by the end of the season. Orlando went from one of the best defenses in the league to one of the worst, seemingly overnight.
After a strong first quarter to the season, the Magic’s defense collapsed, dragged down it would seem by the team’s poor offense. And the defense, which was sixth in the league through 21 games by defensive rating, sank into the bottom 10 by the end of the season. Orlando went from one of the best defenses in the league to one of the worst, seemingly overnight.
Orlando went from one of the best defenses in the league to one of the worst, seemingly overnight.
This collapse caused the whole house of cards to come down. The Magic settled in as one of the worst teams in the league from all the major categories.
Things changed in the second half of the season, albeit slightly. Orlando changed its style of play and became much more spread and saw limited results.
It is hard to get a sense of what direction the Magic should go as they try to rebuild their roster and get back on track. There does not seem to be much statistical momentum to say, “This definitely works.”
Before the NBA Playoffs get too far away from the regular season, it seems like it is time to review where the Magic finished the season in some major statistical categories and figure out if that gives a clue on where the Magic should go.
The first place to start is with the basics — offensive, defensive and net rating. For a team that finished with the fifth-worst record in the league, these predictably do not look good for the team.
Even after the All-Star Break, though, when it looked like the Magic were playing better basketball, the team still did not show many signs of encouragement in the big picture.
| Pace | Off. Rtg. | Def. Rtg. | Net Rtg. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full Season | 99.1 (13) | 101.2 (29) | 108.0 (24) | -6.8 (29) |
| Pre-All Star | 98.4 (19) | 100.5 (29) | 107.2 (22) | -6.7 (28) |
| Post-All Star | 100.8 (9) | 102.9 (26) | 109.9 (25) | -7.1 (29) |
The numbers, as expected are not good here. The Magic’s offense cratered near the bottom of the league for most of the season and showed only marginal improvements after the All-Star Break. The defense remained middling.
Essentially, the Magic’s main statistical profile looked like a team that was at the bottom of the standings. Net rating, a better measure of how well a team is playing, actually suggests the Magic outperformed their statistical profile.
According to Basketball-Reference’s Simple Rating System, the Magic had the statistical profile of a 24-win team. By that measure, the Magic outperformed their stats by five wins. That is what a half-dozen 30-point losses will do.
It also does not leave a clear path forward. Take a look at where the Magic ranked in the four factors too. The picture here is also not clear.
| eFG% | O.Reb.% | TO% | FTR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full Season | 48.9 (29) | 21.6 (21) | 13.3 (7) | 24.6 (27) |
| Pre-All Star | 49.0 (28) | 21.6 (24) | 13.6 (9) | 24.2 (27) |
| Post-All Star | 48.7 (28) | 21.6 (21) | 12.7 (4) | 25.4 (17) |
About the only thing anyone can say positively about the Magic’s offense is that they did not turn the ball over very much. And that even improved as the team picked up its pace.
That does suggest Orlando could run a pretty efficient offense . . . if only the team could make a shot or get to the foul line. The free throws increased after the All-Star Break. So there are some suggestions if the Magic can add some shooting, they might be able to improve their offensive efficiency.
Add to that the team’s performance both in the paint and transition before and after the All-Star Break, there are some signs of encouragement too.
Orlando actually finished ninth in the league with 14.0 fast-break points per game this season. A lot of that came after the All-Star Break when the team was seventh with 16.0 fast-break points per game.
The Magic were also 13th in the league after the All-Star Break with 44.6 points in the paint per game. The Magic were 21st for the entire season with 42.2 points in the paint per game.
When everyone says Orlando played better after the All-Star Break — as several players did and most generally would agree — this is likely what the team is referring to. Orlando had a much more cohesive style offensive that improved the team’s overall efficiency.
The Magic were just lacking shooting all year. This was clearly the biggest weakness for the team all season. Something the Magic could not overcome.
And the defensive picture does not look much better.
| Opp. eFG% | Opp. O.Reb.% | Opp. TO% | Opp. FTR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full Season | 52.3 (22) | 22.6 (9) | 13.1 (24) | 26.3 (12) |
| Pre-All Star | 51.9 (24) | 22.9 (10) | 13.4 (22) | 25.9 (10) |
| Post-All Star | 53.1 (26) | 22.0 (6) | 12.5 (27) | 27.2 (18) |
The Magic’s defensive profile does not look fantastic either.
The team did some good things as far as limiting offensive rebounds. The Magic held to that tenant of Vogel’s defenses. And that would help charge the fast break after the All-Star Break. Orlando needs to bottle that part of the team up. Rebounding was the only area the team played well consistently on the defensive end.
Otherwise, the defense slipped even further after the All-Star Break. And the team needed to improve on all ends.
There is undoubtedly a balance for the team between playing at a faster pace, getting out on the run and playing better defense.
The first half of the season was spent neglecting the offense to have a strong defense — that did not work. The second half of the season was spent trying to carve an offensive identity. That had mixed success and could clearly go further.
The team was changing identities on the fly. Without a training camp, there were some hiccups to work out and some wrinkles to iron. The Magic hope a full offseason knowing how they want to play and a training camp to work in the system will make for better numbers.
The truth is, the Magic are a long way away from where they want to be. No one needs statistics to know the team needs upgrades in a lot of different areas to get back into the Playoff picture.
Next: 2016-17 Orlando Magic Player Evaluations: Jodie Meeks
If the Magic have to focus anywhere, the team should focus on shooting most and finding length on the perimeter to create more turnovers to feed their efficient transition game.