2016-17 Orlando Magic Player Evaluations: Elfrid Payton

The Good and the Bad

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/25/2017.

Like so much of the Orlando Magic’s season, Elfrid Payton’s season can be split into two segments — before the All-Star Break and after the All-Star Break (i.e. the Serge Ibaka–Terrence Ross trade).

Starting the year, Payton struggled with the cramped space. Coach Frank Vogel, seeking lineup and offensive balance, shifted him in and out of the starting lineup for a while. Payton just could not provide the offensive punch the Magic needed.

That was not completely his fault. The team’s roster construction was terrible. But this is not the style that suits Payton. And his numbers suffered for it.

Before the All-Star Break, Payton averaged 12.5 points, 3.8 rebounds and 5.7 assists per game. His numbers and production were solid, if not a measure of progress from last year. At the very least, before the Break, Payton was as good as he was the year before.

That was not good enough.

Neither was his 45.7 percent shooting and 26.8 percent 3-point shooting. Vogel gave him more freedom to look for his shots. And Payton showed some renewed confidence. But that confidence did not create results.

Payton did not get to the rim as often — taking 303 of his 654 shots (46.3 percent) within five feet, according to NBA.com. He settled a lot more, taking 142 of his 654 shots (21.7 percent) from outside 20 feet.

Quite simply, the offense did not fit Payton. There was too little space for him to operate, forcing him to play on the perimeter rather than on the attack. There was not enough shooting to spread defenses out and Serge Ibaka, Nikola Vucevic and Bismack Biyombo took up valuable real estate in the paint.

After the All-Star Break was a different story.

With Ibaka gone and Terrence Ross providing extra shooting on the perimeter, things finally opened up for Payton. He averaged 13.5 points, 7.0 rebounds and 8.4 assists per game. Triple doubles became regular in this season of the triple double. Payton was in attack mode and it showed.

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According to NBA.com, Payton took 148 of his 258 shots (57.4 percent) within five feet of the basket. He took just 21 of 258 shots (8.1 percent) of his shots from outside 20 feet. It was a dramatic turnaround for Payton who suddenly found himself able to get all the way to the basket.

Payton is far more effective when he goes north-south rather than east-west. When he is able to get downhill and into the paint he is as dangerous as they come with a solid floater and plenty of speed, size and strength to finish at the rim.

He still has all that capability. And his post-All-Star Break play was encouraging. That is the Elfrid Payton the Magic need.

And throughout the season, there was no player who had more of an effect on wins and losses than Payton. That is both a sign of his inconsistency and the reality of how important the point guard position is.

But Payton still has a big weakness outside of his shooting. His defense is still suspect, although it bounced back from his terrible sophomore season.

Payton struggled mightily on the defensive end his sophomore year, getting eaten up on screens and beat one on one. With all the great point guards in the league, this weakness became apparent, leaving Nikola Vucevic in no man’s land far too often trying to contain both a point guard and a post player behind him.

According to Basketball-Reference, Payton recorded 2.0 defensive win shares and a +0.8 defensive box plus-minus. Both were slightly worse than his rookie year but significantly better than his sophomore year (1.7 defensive win shares and a -0.5 defensive box plus-minus).

Observationally, Payton’s defense was only marginally better. Still, too often he allowed too much dribble penetration and got beat putting the Magic’s already hurting defense at a disadvantage.