The Orlando Magic will face an important contract decision soon on the future of two starters — Aaron Gordon and Elfrid Payton.
The clock is always ticking in the NBA. Every year brings with it a new set of problems and a new set of questions to answer. Not to mention, needs to fill, expectations to meet and a future to think about.
The Orlando Magic were trying to dip their feet into both waters, continuing to develop young players while committing to pushing for the Playoffs in 2017. The results have been mixed.
For Aaron Gordon and Elfrid Payton, a stagnant or development season was not something they were hoping was in the cards. The Magic were not either. Both the franchise and the players were hoping to see those players take a big step forward.
That did not happen and now the future becomes a much more urgent reality for the team.
Teams have to pay their draft picks eventually — as the Magic learned with Victor Oladipo and Evan Fournier and even Tobias Harris beforehand. It is very difficult to keep all of a team’s young players.
Even with the control of restricted free agency, some players get away because they are overpriced or a team has to bite the bullet on a poison pill contract or something overpriced with the hope the player meets that deal.
This summer, Rob Hennigan (or whoever is the general manager) will have a decision to make regarding Aaron Gordon and Elfrid Payton’s future. The 2014 NBA Draft Class is eligible for extensions this summer. For Gordon and Payton particularly, that will provide an interesting question.
For Gordon, his season has been a mixed one. The first three quarters, he spent at small forward trying to figure out how to play on the perimeter. His scoring increased, but all his other numbers decreased. And, while he proved himself plenty worthy as a perimeter defender, it was unclear what his fit was on offense.
His offensive burst since the All-Star Break when he moved back to power forward has restored some faith in his ability. Gordon is the closest thing the Magic have to a star right now.
But he is also still incredibly raw. Putting a price tag on him is going to be extremely difficult.
Keith Smith of RealGM began pondering the 2014 extensions that might come this summer and settled on Gordon getting a four-year, $100-million extension — similar to Damian Lillard or Andre Drummond‘s contract (both signed before the spike cap).
"Orlando doesn’t have a lot to build around. They have decent enough role players, but no stars. Gordon is the only player on the roster with the potential to reach that level. The Magic will sign him long-term, while giving themselves a little bit of wiggle room, just shy of the max, in case he doesn’t quite get there."
Even on this very basic level, it is already apparent how difficult it is going to accurately price and assess Gordon’s value on the market. Especially the restricted free agent market.
A contract at $25-million per year seems like a lot for Gordon, who averages 11.8 points per game. Giannis Antetokounmpo‘s extension starts at $22 million next season as another point of comparison.
Gordon is likely to see his extension come in at somewhere between $90-95 million over four years if the Magic want to go that way.
Payton is even more difficult to handle.
Payton has been as inconsistent as anyone on the roster. The Magic have seen the good Elfrid Payton the last week with three triple doubles in his last five games. But that has not been Payton for the entire season. Or for the whole entirety of his career so far.
"While Payton has flashed at times, he’s still a limited player at the point guard position. He can do a lot of things well, but he’s not elite in any facet and can’t shoot. His 46% shooting this year is misleading, because he’s at just 26% from behind the arc. He even lost his job to D.J. Augustin for a stretch of this season. Payton is probably in the lower third of starting point guards at this point in his career."
Payton’s contract extension this summer will be interesting. It would not be surprising to see both Gordon and Payton reach restricted free agency.
And there is always the added element of the potential for a new general manager to step in.
A new general manager may not have the same high opinion of these players as the guy who drafted them to begin with. Just look at what happened with Greg Monroe and the Detroit Pistons when Stan Van Gundy arrived (Monroe was one of the few restricted free agents to take the qualifying offer and head for unrestricted free agency in a year).
Next: Orlando Magic: Whose team is it anyway?
It will add to what should be an intriguing summer for the Magic as they try to right the ship after a frustrating season and as they plan their future with two of their key starters.