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Projecting the Orlando Magic after the All-Star Break

By Philip Rossman-Reich

Feb 7, 2017; Houston, TX, USA; Orlando Magic forward Mario Hezonja (8) against the Houston Rockets during the third quarter at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 7, 2017; Houston, TX, USA; Orlando Magic forward Mario Hezonja (8) against the Houston Rockets during the third quarter at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Orlando Magic came into the season with high expectations. They entered the All-Star Break disappointed. And the outlook now does not look good.

The All-Star Break is always a good time to take a step back and evaluate the season to date. It is not the midpoint of the season, but it serves as a nice dividing line.

At the beginning of the season, Orlando hoped to be spending the trade deadline looking for that last piece to get into the Playoffs. That is not the case. Instead, the Magic are trying to restock young talent and plan for their long-term future.

The final sprint and final quarter of the season are ahead. The trade deadline gives teams the last chance to make any moves to make the most of this final stretch.

This season has not gone in any way like they had thought. At 21-37 at the All-Star Break, Orlando entered the post-break NBA 6.5 games out of the final Playoff spot. It does not seem likely the Magic will put together a strong run to make the postseason.

It certainly does not seem that way after losing a double-digit lead in the second half in Thursday’s loss to the Portland Trail Blazers.

On top of all that, the Magic are now fourth in line in the Lottery. There seems to be strong incentive to go further down the standings and bank up those Lottery odds.

What is left this season? That is going to be hard to figure out.

What was easy to figure out is what the Magic had was not working and was not going to lead them anywhere. Orlando is well on its way to failing to meet last year’s 35-win total and failing to get more wins than the previous season for the first time since the rebuild began.

At, now, 21-38, the Magic are on pace for 29 wins. That is certainly not the season the Magic envisioned beforehand.

Statistical outlooks after the All-Star Break are not much kinder.

TeamRankings had the Magic on track to win 30 games entering the All-Star Break with a 0.1 percent chance at making the Playoffs.

FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO rating had the Magic at 30 wins this season with a less than one percent chance at making the Playoffs. On top of all that, CARMELO rates the Magic as the second-worst team in the league, ahead of only the Brooklyn Nets.

And, finally, Number Fire projects the Magic winning 32 games with a 0.2 percent chance to make the Playoffs.

The outlook entering the All-Star Break was certainly not good for the Magic. There was not a reason to believe, if things had stayed the same, the team would turn things around.

Orlando did change things though. It is not certain exactly what the team will look like. There were encouraging and discouraging signs in the Magic’s loss to the Trail Blazers. The team seemed to play with much more energy.

The Magic cannot run from their first half to the season. But they are a somewhat new team since adding Terrence Ross. Their style of play will change. And, despite that incentive to lose, the Magic are hoping to finish the season strong and build a foundation for their 2018 season.

It is unclear whether this will last or what this team’s identity truly will become. The Magic are still redeveloping themselves.

Next: Orlando Magic stand pat at trade deadline

There is a chance, perhaps, to improve these projections. But things are not looking for the Magic heading into the final quarter of the season. Orlando is on pace to get plenty of ping pong balls unless they change their fortunes.