Clues about the 2016-2017 Orlando Magic via Basketball Reference

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Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers, Elfrid Payton, Orlando Magic

Feb 5, 2016; Orlando, FL, USA; Orlando Magic guard Elfrid Payton (4) drives past Los Angeles Clippers guard Chris Paul during the second half of a basketball game at Amway Center. The Clippers won 107-93. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports /

Return from Injury

Headline: Expect C.J. Watson to bounce back and maybe take some playing time from Elfrid Payton

Statistics: Watson projected for 35.8 3P% (last year: 29.2%), 9.6 FGA/36 (last year: 7.5) and 0.101 WS/48 (last year: 0.047); Payton projected for 11.5 FGA/36 (last year: 12.5).

C.J. Watson

2016-17 Projection Table
	Per 36 Minutes	Shooting
Season	Age	Lg	FG	FGA	3P	3PA	FT	FTA	ORB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS	FG%	3P%	FT%	WS/48
2016-17	32	NBA	3.9	9.6	1.3	3.7	2.6	3.2	0.6	4.0	4.6	1.3	0.3	2.0	2.7	11.7	.406	.358	.824	.101

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/22/2016.

Elfrid Payton

2016-17 Projection Table
	Per 36 Minutes	Shooting
Season	Age	Lg	FG	FGA	3P	3PA	FT	FTA	ORB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS	FG%	3P%	FT%	WS/48
2016-17	22	NBA	5.1	11.5	0.4	1.3	1.9	3.2	1.4	4.8	7.8	1.7	0.3	2.9	2.7	12.6	.445	.331	.596	.048

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/22/2016.

Interpretation:

C.J. Watson dealt with a calf injury for the first few months of last season. As a result, he never got into any sort of rhythm and played arguably the worst season of his career (rookie year notwithstanding).

But there are reasons to believe he will be much better this year. First, reuniting with Frank Vogel never hurts, especially when he played his best basketball under Frank Vogel. Second, regression to the mean will be kind to Watson because in this case, “regression” is in the direction of his Pacers days, which were decent (e.g., in 2015, he recorded a 15.4 PER).

It is not hard to imagine scenarios in which Vogel might even trust Watson down the stretch more than he does Payton, especially if Watson gets back to shooting from deep like he has shown throughout his career (37.9 percent for his career), providing the floor spacing Payton cannot (projected 33.1 percent from deep next year, likely on mostly wide-open attempts).

At the very least, Watson should return to being one of the better backup point guards in the league, but do not be surprised either if he pushes D.J. Augustin for backup minutes, Payton for more minutes and shots or even one of the shooting guards. It seems like Watson should be able to find a way into the rotation at some point.