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Clues about the 2016-2017 Orlando Magic via Basketball Reference

By Dar-Wei Chen

Mar 29, 2016; Orlando, FL, USA; Orlando Magic guard Elfrid Payton (4) drives to the basket as Brooklyn Nets forward Willie Reed (33) attempted to defend during the second half at Amway Center. Orlando Magic defeated the Brooklyn Nets 139-105. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 29, 2016; Orlando, FL, USA; Orlando Magic guard Elfrid Payton (4) drives to the basket as Brooklyn Nets forward Willie Reed (33) attempted to defend during the second half at Amway Center. Orlando Magic defeated the Brooklyn Nets 139-105. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /
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Aaron Gordon, Orlando Magic, Jeremy Lamb, Charlotte Hornets
Apr 13, 2016; Charlotte, NC, USA; Orlando Magic forward Aaron Gordon (00) drives to the basket as he is defended by Charlotte Hornets guard Jeremy Lamb (3) during the first half of the game at Time Warner Cable Arena. Mandatory Credit: Sam Sharpe-USA TODAY Sports /

Unexpected Regressions

Headline: After breakout years, Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier are projected to regress a bit

Statistics: Gordon projected for 0.12 win shares per 48 minutes (last year: 0.139); Fournier projected for 0.091 WS/48 (last year: 0.106). Note: League average for WS/48 is 0.1

Aaron Gordon

2016-17 Projection Table
Per 36 Minutes Shooting
Season Age Lg FG FGA 3P 3PA FT FTA ORB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS FG% 3P% FT% WS/48
2016-17 21 NBA 5.3 11.0 0.8 2.7 2.5 3.6 2.8 9.5 2.4 1.1 1.1 1.4 3.0 13.9 .482 .310 .694 .120

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/22/2016.

Evan Fournier

2016-17 Projection Table
Per 36 Minutes Shooting
Season Age Lg FG FGA 3P 3PA FT FTA ORB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS FG% 3P% FT% WS/48
2016-17 24 NBA 5.9 12.9 2.1 5.3 2.7 3.3 0.6 3.5 2.9 1.2 0.1 1.9 2.9 16.7 .462 .400 .810 .091

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/22/2016.

Interpretation:

The nature of SPS is such that young players without a large body of work will be particularly susceptible to “falling back to earth” projections.

Evan Fournier’s projection is one of those cases. It is a reasonable one given he has not been playing at this level for a long time (even if pegging him as a below-average player seems a bit surprising).

Projecting Gordon’s season is a bit trickier because the duties he will be assuming this year under Frank Vogel are quite different from the ones he assumed last year. His projection can be taken with a grain of salt.

It could take him a while to make the transition to the wing, but he might also blossom now that he will reportedly have more freedom to handle the ball, which he does pretty well for a player his size.

For what it is worth, Gordon’s 3-point percentage is projected to rise from 29.6 percent last year to 31 percent this year, a sorely needed (though modest) development if the Magic want to credibly create spacing when Gordon shares the floor with a player like Elfrid Payton.