CBS Sports: Nikola Vucevic is bad at rim protecting, but help is here
Nikola Vucevic is not good at protecting the rim. Stats clearly show this in the inexact science of rim protecting. But help is clearly on the way.
It is no secret Nikola Vucevic struggles defensively.
That might be the biggest puzzle to solve for the Orlando Magic from the last four years of the rebuild and even with the current roster. Vucevic has tremendous ability offensively — 18.2 points per game and 8.9 rebounds per game — and can put up strong numbers. He is the poster player for good stats on a bad team.
Vucevic still has a lot of value. And Magic fans are quick to point out someone has to score on this team and Vucevic might be the most consistent offensive player. His mid-range shooting from the position is extremely valuable too.
He is a multi-faceted and dynamic offensive player.
But, and there is always a but, Vucevic seems to give away as many points as he creates. His ability to stop opposing players from scoring up close is simply not good, no matter how much he improves on that front — as he did last year, but only to 54.0 percent.
All of Vucevic’s defensive numbers suggest he is not a good defensive player. And at the center position that may be more important than what he can provide offensively. Especially in a NBA with so much switching and pick and roll play.
As Zach Harper of CBS Sports notes, rim protecting is an inexact science. It is easy to point to field goals percentage allowed at the rim as a sign of rim protection or blocks per game and use that as a metric for rim protection. But it remains an incomplete picture.
Harper took a look at each team’s rim protection from last year and their outlook for this year using those metrics in addition to Nylon Calculus’ points saved per 36 minutes metric.
They all come out looking bad for Vucevic.
The Magic had a +1.8 defensive rating differential with Vucevic on the floor last year (they were 1.8 points per 100 possessions worse with Vucevic on the floor). And he had a -0.67 points saved per 36 minutes. Again, Vucevic was not good defensively. It was about as bad as any center in the league.
The news is not all bad though, as Harper notes:
"Here’s the good news. The Magic saw their issues defensively and made three big changes. They traded for Ibaka (mentioned right above), they signed Bismack Biyombo, and they hired Frank Vogel to be their coach. All of those moves should vastly improve their rim protection this coming season. Vucevic is still bad at it, but when he has Ibaka to help cover for him and Biyombo to back him up, it seems like less of a problem. Biyombo’s numbers last year? 45.2 percent allowed at the rim and 1.72 points saved per 36 minutes (ninth in the NBA). They’ll be just fine this season."
The Magic recognized the issue and addressed it in the offseason. They brought in Serge Ibaka and Bismack Biyombo for support (and insurance) and added a defensive coach in Frank Vogel. The Magic should be better just from a personnel standpoint.
Biyombo is one of the best rim protectors in the league. So too is Ibaka.
Ibaka saved 1.53 points per 36 minutes gave up 43.6 percent shooting at the rim and the Thunder were 1.4 points per 100 possessions better defensively with him on the floor.
Even though many of his defensive metrics seemed to decrease, he was still a net positive defensively and a strong rim protector. The Magic certainly seem to have that piece in place now. Their rim protection — and thus their defense — should be much better.
The question left for the Magic now is whether Ibaka can play good enough defense to cover up for Vucevic’s clear shortcomings on that end.
Next: Serge Ibaka is readying for his fresh start
That will be the biggest question to answer in training camp and in the beginning of the season.