Lack of national TV games points to big problem for Orlando Magic
The Orlando Magic play the fewest games on national TV this upcoming season. That points to some big problems for the team as they fight for attention.
The Orlando Magic may feel a little disrespected with the NBA’s release of the schedule.
The Magic have the fewest games overall on NBATV, TNT and ESPN. And, based on their win total, they appear to have a reason to be frustrated with their lack of attention.
Orlando has three NBATV games (Feb. 7 at Houston, March 17 at Phoenix, March 29 vs. Oklahoma City), one ESPN game (March 3 vs. Miami), and no TNT games.
As a comparison, the Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics are the only teams with fewer NBATV games. The only other team with no TNT games is the Brooklyn Nets, a team many are projecting to be the worst team in the NBA this season.
The only teams with one or fewer ESPN games this season are the Brooklyn Nets, Denver Nuggets, Sacramento Kings and Orlando Magic. The ESPN and TNT distribution is more indicative of what the fans think of the team since they have more viewers, and it is clear where most place the Magic.
The Magic are expecting to be near the middle of the pack in terms of success. They were 19th in the NBA with 35 wins last season, ESPN projects them to be 23rd with 35 wins this year. The Magic are hoping to be closer to 40-45 wins in order to compete for a playoff spot.
The Magic should have significantly more than four national TV games, if national TV games were solely based on winning.
These graphs show how correlated national TV games are with both last year’s win total and ESPN’s projected win total:
There is a 0.59 correlation between last year’s wins and this year’s national TV games, and a 0.65 correlation between ESPN win projections and national TV games. That shows a relatively weak correlation between how good a team is, on average, and the number of national TV appearances.
But as the graphs show, the Magic are a clear outlier in both. The Magic’s record and projected finish would suggest they get more national TV games.
According to a simple regression model, predicting national TV games based on both of those factors, the Magic should have about 15 national TV games. Selecting national TV games is not an exact science though. Factors like market size and predicted finish matter, which can skew numbers one way or the other. The 10-15 mark though seems to be about what the Magic have “earned” though all things considered.
But these factors played a role in the Magic going from that project 15 to just four.
This is clearly another large variable that is omitted. The fact the Magic were 28th in the league last season in road attendance shows there was clearly something missing with the team. It may explain why most fans are not interested in watching them. And thus the TV broadcast partners opted to pass on the Magic repeatedly.
It is apparent market size and number of marketable players are big factors in national TV games. The big problem for the Magic is the lack of marketable players.
For example, the Chicago Bulls are tied with the Cleveland Cavaliers and Los Angeles Clippers for second most national TV games. They missed the playoffs last year and may very well miss it again. But the Bulls are in a huge market and have two very marketable star players. All-Star Jimmy Butler was 10th in jersey sales last season, and All-Star Dwyane Wade is a future Hall of Famer who has finished in the top 10 in jersey sales many times).
There are 10 teams who were worse than the Magic last season who have more national TV games. Market size and star power explain most of them.
Some examples are the New Orleans Pelicans, who have Anthony Davis, the Sacramento Kings, who have DeMarcus Cousins, and the Los Angeles Lakers, who are the league’s marquee franchise and also have some potential star players who draw league interest along with the second overall pick in Brandon Ingram.
The Sam Hinkie situation and the arrival of intriguing young players Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid and Dario Saric have made the Sixers even more interesting to fans than the Magic.
The Magic have been toward the bottom in jersey sales the past four years, after finishing in the top 10 with a superstar in Dwight Howard on the roster. Lack of league interest is not an Orlando problem, but rather an issue of the roster lacking players who fans — especially casual fans — are excited about watching.
In order to increase organization profit, the Magic will want to increase their national exposure. However, there is no easy fix for this team.
They should rack up enough wins to avoid drafting at the top of the next few drafts, which means their probability of drafting a future superstar is low. However, they also may not be good enough to attract elite free agents.
They do have one player in Aaron Gordon who has the potential to be a marketable player.
He became widely discussed after his impressive showing in the dunk contest. He has since been featured on talk shows, commercials, and even has one of his dunk contest dunks being sold as a T-Shirt in the team store.
After the All-Star Break, Gordon stepped up his play, averaging 12 points and seven rebounds per game in about 28 minutes per game.
He was a solid player overall, finishing with 5.4 win shares on the season. That number exceeds the career average for a fourth overall pick.
Gordon is an electrifying player who can make many plays featured in Vine form all over the Internet. If he continues to improve his play, specifically offensively (a jump shooting improvement would help), he can be a marketable player who fans will want to watch.
The Orlando Magic need more brand-name players in order to increase the number of national TV games they play. Although they have one player in Gordon who can become that player, they have not had one since Dwight Howard. Teams have to earn their respect — both with winning and highlights.
The Magic have played it smart with their strategy, focusing on improving defense and solely aiming to maximize wins. However, they currently lack the star players they would need to increase exposure and marketability.
True contending teams, it would seem, have at least two superstars.. The 2009 Magic may be an example as arguably the last Finals team not to have at least two superstars. But, in fairness, that team had three All-Star selections that season.
The 2011 Mavericks might be another. But, in addition to Dirk Nowitzki, had Jason Kidd and Shawn Marion on their roster, two players who were superstars past their prime, but still big names.
The Magic obviously lack star talent. That not only limits their potential to contend for a championship, but also leaves them at the bottom of the league in national exposure.
Next: 10 must-see games for the Orlando Magic in 2017
The 2017 season may be about changing that perception slowly and getting fans to pay attention.