Serge Ibaka is entering the vaunted contract year. For Ibaka and the Magic to achieve their goals in 2017, they will need to maximize each other.
The Orlando Magic made their big play in acquiring Serge Ibaka at the Draft for Victor Oladipo. Ibaka was the so-called power forward unicorn — a big who could protect the rim, guard the perimeter and make 3-pointers at a threatening clip. He brought an elite skill in return for a player the Magic originally had a lot of hopes for.
It was also a financial move though. A move to improve the Magic’s defense with some rim protection, but maintain financial flexibility.
Should Ibaka not work out, the Magic can easily and quickly move on from him. The Magic only acquired the final year of his contract at $12.3 million. Ibaka is in that magical contract year.
There is a lot on the line for Ibaka this year. And he has a lot to prove.
By any measure, Ibaka’s numbers have declined in the last several years. His scoring has dropped from a career-high of 15.1 points per game in 2014 to 12.6 points per game last year. His field goal percentage dropped to 47.9 percent, his second straight year shooting less than 50 percent from the floor. His rebounding rates have dropped in the last three years as have his blocks.
His defensive win shares dropped from a high of 4.4 three years ago — but did bounce back to 3.0 last year. His defensive box plus minus numbers are no longer as eye popping as they once were.
Ibaka is still a plus defender and someone who can contribute. But these drops are curious and frustrating to his future projections.
FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO projections have Ibaka measuring out as nothing more than a role player and getting worse as the years go on. His wins above replacement continue a steep decline and his opportunity to be a big contributor — especially at 26 years old — is beginning to fade. Especially when considering his injury history.
CARMELO has its limitations. It is a comparison metric and uses those comparisons to make some predictions. Ibaka very well could flip the script and return to the dominating defensive player he was just two years ago. It only suggests that if Ibaka keeps on this trend, his career is about to take a dive.
His contract year is certainly a motivation. This could be his last big contract. It is still unclear what the Magic will do. They could easily re-sign him using Bird Rights or be comfortable letting him walk with a rim protector locked up in Bismack Biyombo and Aaron Gordon‘s flexibility still hanging around.
And, as much as Ibaka has a lot to prove to the Magic and to the league, the Magic also have a lot to prove to Ibaka.
In a roundtable reviewing the Magic’s offseason for FanSided, we were asked about Ibaka’s future and what the Magic have to do. Chris Barnewall of The Friendly Bounce, Zach Oliver of Orlando Pinstriped Post and I all agreed winning is the best way to keep Ibaka in a Magic uniform:
My response:
"Win. That is all free agents want. If the Magic want to keep Serge Ibaka, they have to show him that they are legitimately a playoff team. Featuring him prominently in the offense probably would not hurt either. Ibaka has been starved for a larger role and the Magic seem set to give him more shots and feature him. But ultimately winning is all free agents want. Or at least the free agents you want to keep around want. Orlando has to move on from 35 wins to a legitimate playoff threat while showing a lot of faith in Ibaka’s abilities. That would get the job done."
For both Ibaka and the Magic to accomplish their goals this year, they will need each other. The Magic will need to give Ibaka a chance to succeed in the way he used to in Oklahoma City with the Thunder and also feature him a little bit more for them to achieve their goals.
Ibaka has never used more than 20 percent of possessions at any season of his career. He has never been featured in any serious way in an offense. He has not even been
Last year, he played a minuscule 138 minutes without Kevin Durant or Russell Westbrook on the floor with him. While he scored 1.01 points per possession, he still used less than 20 percent of his possessions.
Ibaka can be an efficient offensive player — if not one who passes the ball often, his shooting at the 4 makes him valuable in spreading the floor. If he gets open looks, he will typically make them.
And he can still defend at a very high level. He showed that in the Playoffs when his defensive box plus-minus jumped to +2.4 points per 100 possessions better than the average player (he was +1.0 in the regular season).
It is too early to say exactly how Ibaka will fit with this group or whether he can take on the larger role the Magic envision for him. Unlike Oklahoma City, Orlando will give him the opportunity. Everyone is going to have to be able to have their big games when the moment calls for it with this ensemble cast.
Next: Frank Vogel works because of his flexibility
If Ibaka is able to play well, he will earn his contract — from the Magic or someone else. And if Ibaka delivers on offense and on defense for the Magic, the Magic should be in a good position to make the Playoffs.