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Orlando Magic Daily Podcast Episode 56: CARMELO Player Rankings

By Philip Rossman-Reich

Mar 29, 2016; Orlando, FL, USA; Orlando Magic guard Elfrid Payton (4) drives to the basket as Brooklyn Nets guard Shane Larkin (0) defends during the first quarter at Amway Center. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 29, 2016; Orlando, FL, USA; Orlando Magic guard Elfrid Payton (4) drives to the basket as Brooklyn Nets guard Shane Larkin (0) defends during the first quarter at Amway Center. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /
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On this episode of the Orlando Magic Daily Podcast, we break down the CARMELO rankings and what they mean in predicting the Magic’s future for 2017.

With the NBA offseason virtually over, it is getting to be prediction time. The NBA has entered its quiet season leaving everyone to wonder what will happen when teams gather back together for informal workouts in September and then the regular season again in late October.

It feels like a really long time away from now — do not worry, the Olympics will tide us over for a few weeks. Basketball is taking a back seat to wondering what will happen when players finally re-assemble on the court.

The Orlando Magic will be one of the teams with a lot of questions to answer.

Everyone spent June and July trying to figure out what the Orlando Magic were doing. Trying to piece together this roster and determine whether the team actually upgraded its talent and improved its team.

Magic management certainly felt that pressure. After four years of rebuilding, the Magic got tired of waiting. There is a Playoffs-or-bust feel to the season already. The pressure is on.

And so those questions about whether the Magic truly improved and upgraded their talent are still broiling around the team. With the pressure so high, the Magic have to answer questions about whether they cashed in many of the players in their rebuild at the right time and what they have to show for four years of struggles.

It is hard to say exactly whether this team has made that progress and whether that talent has truly upgraded. Or exactly how this team fits together.

The recent release of the 2017 season CARMELO ratings from FiveThirtyEight painted a strange picture of the Magic. It was hard to get much of a sense of whether the Magic improved or not. The rating system does not seem to like the Magic.

CARMELO is FiveThirtyEight’s player projection system. It compares the stats of current players as well as their history to previous players in NBA history. By comparing it previous players, it projects what their future career might be like based on wins above replacement.

It certainly is an imperfect measure and predictor, but certainly interesting to discuss. Especially as we try to figure out what the Orlando Magic are going to be like this season.

After analyzing and looking at the Magic’s presence in the ratings, our Dar-Wei Chen joined the Orlando Magic Daily Podcast to discuss the progression of several key Orlando Magic players and where the team stands entering the 2017 season:

On This Episode

  • What is CARMELO rankings? What is its limitations and what does it say?
  • What does CARMELO think about Elfrid Payton and Aaron Gordon?
  • Why did Elfrid Payton’s numbers slip last year and how did that adjust his projections?
  • Where does Nikola Vucevic fit in with the team? How can the Magic use him best?
  • What does CARMELO say about Victor Oladipo? Does that change what we think about this deal?
  • Why has Serge Ibaka declined, and can he be saved?
  • Was Rob Hennigan forced to push the pace this offseason with his signings and acquisitions?
  • Did the Orlando Magic get better? What does it mean if they did not or they stagnate?
  • What are the lessons we can learn from last year’s 35-win team?

Many thanks to Dar-Wei for sitting down and discussing the CARMELO rankings and the Magic’s offseason to go with the upcoming season.

You can follow Dar-Wei on Twitter @chendw.

Next: The Orlando Magic's plans are becoming clearer

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