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Summer deals lead way for Elfrid Payton leap

By David Iwanowski

Dec 3, 2015; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; Orlando Magic guard Elfrid Payton (4) and forward Evan Fournier (10) celebrate after beating the Utah Jazz 103-94 at Vivint Smart Home Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Swinger-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 3, 2015; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; Orlando Magic guard Elfrid Payton (4) and forward Evan Fournier (10) celebrate after beating the Utah Jazz 103-94 at Vivint Smart Home Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Swinger-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Orlando Magic extended shooting guard Evan Fournier and traded away Victor Oladipo. Those moves should allow Elfrid Payton to grow.

In the past two weeks, the Orlando Magic made a few deals to completely change the style of their team. One of the big changes was splitting up the two young guards who many deemed too similar to be able to play together — Elfrid Payton and Victor Oladipo.

A big concern about the Magic’s future entering the offseason was Elfrid Payton and Victor Oladipo would not be able to last in the same back court long term, as both players work best driving and facilitating and neither is a stellar shooter.

The Magic decided to trade Oladipo, the one with more trade value, in a deal for Serge Ibaka and committed to Evan Fournier as their two guard of the future.

The idea the team has is Fournier is the ideal pairing with Payton, as he provides the spacing to create more room for Payton to drive and create scoring opportunities for his teammates. Payton will likely be relied upon to guard the better guard on the opposing team, and he will have to improve in that area in order to make up for Oladipo’s absence.

Fournier averaged a career-high 15.4 points per game last season on 46 percent from the field and 40 percent from three. He was extremely valuable as someone Scott Skiles trusted to run the offense, provide spacing and guard the best player on the opposing team.

The big difference between him and Oladipo offensively is in jump shooting ability. Fournier was really the only reliable outside shooter on the team, and Oladipo improved to a career-high 34.8 percent from three, which was still below league average.

The Magic have to hope the Fournier-Payton pairing improves from last season, where they did not work as well together as the coaching staff and front office would hope.

The pairing of Payton and Fournier was outscored by 3.6 points per 100 possessions, 1.5 points per 100 possessions worse than the pairing of Payton and Oladipo (although playing significantly more minutes together).

Part of the struggles that pairing had together was on the defensive end, and the Magic should improve drastically in that area with the development of Aaron Gordon and the two new acquisitions of Serge Ibaka and Bismack Biyombo to strengthen the help defense.

Last season, the Magic thrived in December with a starting lineup of Payton and Fournier manning the guard positions with Tobias Harris and two big men not particularly known for their defense in Nikola Vucevic and Channing Frye.

That lineup finished the season, or half a season before two of the players were traded, with 106.9 points per 100 possessions and 100.3 points allowed per 100 possessions.

The Magic are hoping a variation of that lineup, with Gordon, Ibaka, and either Vucevic, Biyombo or perhaps even Mario Hezonja, will be as or more effective as a starting lineup.

The lineup involving Payton, Fournier, Hezonja, Gordon and Vucevic, one that may get significant minutes this season, was +1.5 points over 100 possessions last season too.

With the decision to trade Oladipo, the Magic are banking on Payton and Fournier being strong complements to each other due to their different playing styles, and they had some success together last season. While last year the statistics may not have borne this out, it at least makes logical sense now that there are stronger defenders behind them.

If that combo does not work, and Payton does not make the leap forward, the Magic will have to evaluate what they think Payton will grow into as he approaches his prime age.

Elfrid Payton, Orlando Magic
Apr 8, 2016; Orlando, FL, USA; Orlando Magic guard Elfrid Payton (4) passes the ball against the Miami Heat during the second half at Amway Center. Orlando Magic defeated the Miami Heat 112-109. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /

He took a step back in his second season last year, although some of those struggles in the beginning of 2016 may have been due to injury.

He had problems with defending high ball screens, but some of that may have been due to lack of confidence in his help defense. That should not be a concern anymore, with the acquisitions of two of the better help defenders and rim protectors in the league.

Offensively, he could not create as well as the team had hoped, and that was partially because of the lack of spacing for the team. With more minutes for Fournier and Hezonja, that likely will not be as much of an issue.

Everything is set up for Payton to make the big leap that many analysts, including FiveThirtyEight and their CARMELO ratings, predicted he would make after his rookie season.

Next: Evan Fournier to re-sign with Orlando Magic

If the Payton and Fournier guard combination does not work, the Magic will end up wondering who Payton can be paired with that will help him thrive. If he continues to struggle, the Magic may end up deciding he is not their point guard of the future.