Orlando Magic never developed clear ‘closer’
The Orlando Magic’s struggles late in games was very well documented. No matter who was doing the work, it was clear it was all ineffective and inefficient.
Most NBA fans have an obsession when it comes to the final moments of a game. Those last two minutes get a lot of attention and most of the glory.
The Orlando Magic had their moments this year late in games. Nikola Vucevic drained a couple of buzzer beaters on heavily contested jumpers. Evan Fournier hit a big 3-pointer. Victor Oladipo had his fair share of big shots.
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The larger story of the season, however, was the Magic’s inability to close games. From blown leads to late shots that went against them to overtime losses, the Magic pointed constantly to their late-game record as a reason they were not playing beyond April 15 this year and their season ended without making the Playoffs.
The Magic went 19-24 in games decided by five points or less. Worse yet, the team posted a 95.3 offensive rating in those clutch situations — defined as a game within five points in the final two minutes. That was the third worst offensive rating in the league in those situations.
There is a real concern late in games about where the Magic can consistently get offense. That is one of the big things the Magic might be fishing for in free agency or in offseason acquisitions this summer.
There is some statistical basis to the Magic’s “by committee” approach late in games.
Todd Whitehead of Nylon Calculus calculated where each team in the league goes late in games. He surveyed the players who made the most go-ahead or game-tying shots in the least six minutes of fourth quarters for each team. The Magic appear to go to Victor Oladipo most late in games.
The problem was, Oladipo struggled on these shots. As you can see in the chart above, Oladipo’s circle is moderately large but near the bottom corner of the chart. It would appear he takes about 19 percent of the team’s field goals in this situation and makes slightly more than 34 percent effective field goal percentage.
Looking closer at Oladipo’s stats late in games, and it is hard to figure why he was the one taking these important shots. In clutch situations, Oladipo shot 33.8 percent from the floor overall and a 39.2 percent effective field goal percentage. He had a 10.9 percent turnover rate.
With him having taken the most shots in these situations, it certainly should raise some eyebrows.
Some of it, as Whitehead notes, might just be a young player beginning to assert himself on his team:
"On the other hand, some young guns are taking the reigns of their own teams. Rodney Hood hit the second most shots in the clutch of any closer (21 FGs) for the Utah Jazz. Bradley Beal’s tidy 69 eFG% in the clutch enabled him to lead the Washington Wizards in his own injury-shortened season. Victor Oladipo was the closer for the Orlando Magic and Andrew Wiggins was the closer for the Minnesota Timberwolves."
That might be the reality and growing pains for a young player.
That could be the reality throughout the roster. The Magic did not have a ton of players who were effective in these game-tying or go-ahead situations. Evan Fournier took an equal amount of field goal attempts as Oladipo and did not fare much better.
Here is the full list of Magic players in the situation Nylon Calculus describes:
| Rk | Player | G | FG | FGA | FG% | FGX | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | 3PX | eFG% | Ast’d | %Ast’d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Evan Fournier | 19 | 10 | 38 | .263 | 28 | 7 | 26 | .269 | 19 | .355 | 5 | .500 |
| 2 | Victor Oladipo | 19 | 10 | 34 | .294 | 24 | 4 | 18 | .222 | 14 | .353 | 3 | .300 |
| 3 | Nikola Vucevic | 15 | 7 | 24 | .292 | 17 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 1 | .292 | 5 | .714 |
| 4 | Elfrid Payton | 17 | 6 | 26 | .231 | 20 | 0 | 3 | .000 | 3 | .231 | 2 | .333 |
| 5 | Mario Hezonja | 3 | 4 | 8 | .500 | 4 | 3 | 7 | .429 | 4 | .688 | 4 | 1.000 |
| 6 | Shabazz Napier | 2 | 2 | 5 | .400 | 3 | 2 | 4 | .500 | 2 | .600 | 2 | 1.000 |
| 7 | Tobias Harris | 8 | 2 | 13 | .154 | 11 | 0 | 4 | .000 | 4 | .154 | 1 | .500 |
| 8 | Aaron Gordon | 3 | 2 | 4 | .500 | 2 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 1 | .500 | 1 | .500 |
| 9 | Channing Frye | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 1 | 1.000 | |
| 10 | Jason Smith | 3 | 1 | 3 | .333 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 0 | .500 | 1 | 1.000 |
| 11 | Dewayne Dedmon | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 1 | 1.000 | |
| 12 | C.J. Watson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 0 | 1.500 | 1 | 1.000 |
| 13 | Andrew Nicholson | 3 | 0 | 4 | .000 | 4 | 0 | 2 | .000 | 2 | .000 | 0 | |
| 14 | Brandon Jennings | 1 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 1 | .000 | 0 | |
| 15 | Ersan Ilyasova | 1 | 0 | 2 | .000 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | 0 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/31/2016.
Those are certainly few opportunities and the team going to the same well in Oladipo and Fournier and not getting much out of it.
Perhaps the experience was worth it in itself. Fournier and Vucevic had the best field goal percentage, but even that is not strong. Fournier shot 40.9 percent in clutch situations and Vucevic shot 40.8 percent. Those are not efficient numbers at all.
Then again, clutch situations are among the most inefficient situations in basketball.
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The Magic will need to get someone more consistent in late-game situations to turn around that horrible record late in games. But it is also a growing process too. They will find their star and find their focus late in games that will work eventually.