Brandon Jennings and Ersan Ilyasova have played well in Orlando. That has not improved their chances of returning next season however.
Since the moment the Orlando Magic acquired Brandon Jennings and Ersan Ilyasova from the Detroit Pistons for Tobias Harris, many viewed the pair as no more than a rental. The move was analyzed in media circles as one that freed up money this offseason for free agency.
Jennings is an impending free agent while the last year of Ilyasova’s deal can be bought out for pennies (only $400,000 of his $8.4 million salary is guaranteed if cut before July 1). It seems to be the perfect recipe to open the Magic up as a contender to sign big names in the summer.
The thought that Jennings and/or Ilyasova could remain put in The City Beautiful past the Magic’s final 30 games in the 2016 season was only uttered by a scant minority following the trade. However, both players have acclimated well in Orlando, prompting the question of their longevity with the franchise to deserve greater scrutiny.
Jennings, still not fully recovered from his torn Achilles injury, is averaging 8.7 points per game and shooting nearly 40 percent from 3-point land in seven games with the team. Ilyasova has been even more accurate from distance while posting averages of 10.4 points and 4.9 rebounds per game.
Clearly, these have been valuable acquisitions, but what really has been the net benefit of this duo?
What exactly do Jennings or Ilyasova have to do to stay with the Magic long term? That is a question perhaps only general manager Rob Hennigan and head coach Scott Skiles know the true answer to.
We can speculate however, at a baseline level, Orlando would have to make the playoffs with these two new pieces to keep this core rolling along past this season. While it seems like the additions made at the trade deadline have gotten them closer to that goal, it still remains a scant possibility they actually climb over the logjam of Eastern Conference contenders to enter the postseason.
Even though Jennings and Ilyasova have acquitted themselves well on the court, the Magic are just 3-4 with the pair in tow. That is hardly the kind of run the club needed to make or on the pace for the 18-20 wins after the All-Star Break that Skiles predicted would be necessary for playoff access.
While a postseason trip would be the best chance for Jennings and Ilyasova to stay in Orlando, there are a few other less cut-and-dry scenarios that could have them sticking around.
One of these brewing issues with the roster that could turn the tide in Jennings’ favor is the long-term outlook on Elfrid Payton. There has been no player Skiles has seemingly been tougher on than the second-year point guard.
Does that mean he merely is trying to bring great potential out of the former Louisiana-Lafayette star or that Payton is falling out of favor? This is a question that will be presumably answered this offseason and could crack the door open for Jennings.
The other albatross in the room is free agency.
Orlando seemingly put all their chips in the middle of the table headed for the summer with the potential to clear room for two max-level free agents.
An issue arises with this strategy however. With the salary cap skyrocketing to upwards of $90 million, several franchises also have significant spending capital.
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There may be as many as 28 NBA teams with the space to offer at least one max contract. Many of those clubs also have more wins on their resumes than this Magic core, making them more attractive to free agents.
Orlando certainly has lofty goals for what they want to accomplish in the offseason. Rumors have flown around Harrison Barnes, Al Horford, Chandler Parsons and others bringing their talents to Amway Center.
What happens though if the Magic swing and miss when the silly season hits the NBA? They may have no choice but to crawl back with their tail tucked between their legs and retain Jennings and/or Ilyasova.
With the pool of free agents available and the positives the Magic still have going for them, it seems likely that they will end up with some new significant contributor, but it is not impossible they get shut out either or take a much bigger risk to do something with that cap space.
This is the narrow passageway that could lead Jennings or Ilyasova back to Orlando.
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For now, all the veteran duo can do is play and play well to show the Magic and the league what their value is.