The Orlando Magic have left a lot of people scratching their heads over the trade of Tobias Harris to the Detroit Pistons. And that is for many reasons.
The dust has begun to settle on Tuesday’s trade of Tobias Harris to the Detroit Pistons for Ersan Ilyasova and Brandon Jennings. The Orlando Magic held their first practice with both players still in transit. They will join the team Thursday.
There has been plenty of frustration and head scratching over the Magic’s decision to somewhat unceremoniously dump Harris for two rotation-level players on expiring or potentially expiring contracts to clear some cap room.
Still, these are a lot of questions. Questions that have a lot of unknown answers.
A closer examination of this deal sheds through some of those uncertainties and looks to the potential cap room the Magic may have created depending on some other things they do and what they do with Jennings and Ilyasova this offseason. And Jennings and Ilyasova are both players still capable of contributing in a rotation.
So if the Magic, as they have repeated time and time again, are trying to make the Playoffs with this roster and having traded Tobias Harris to get this group and, if the Magic are still keeping an eye on the future with a major asset like Harris, did they cash that chip in properly? Did they take the steps forward they wanted?
The national media and reaction to the trade would say emphatically: No.
Rob Mahoney of Sports Illustrated was among those puzzled by the trade, grading it a C+.
"It’s really an odd move. At a time when the best teams in the league are fueled by dynamism, the Magic part ways with an already productive player who could grow into a healthier style over time. Their return might be more defensible if it were merely a matter of taste, but there is no basis for asserting Ilyasova and Jennings as equal talents to Harris. Ilyasova is a fine player with an exceedingly simple offensive game. Jennings can contribute but might not stick around and shouldn’t stall the development of Payton and Oladipo. The Magic, then, have succeeded in filling rotation spots without actually improving – a shame given that they saw enough value in Harris last summer to sign him to his current contract in the first place."
From the short-term perspective, the Magic do theoretically get some improved long-range shooting. That may fill a need.
As Zach Lowe of ESPN.com points out, this may be addition by subtraction. Clarifying roles and slotting players more clearly into positions within the rotation could help them blossom more. Evan Fournier and Victor Oladipo are not likely to be looking over their shoulders the rest of the year.
This would also seemingly signal Aaron Gordon is the versatile forward the Magic are putting their money on.
And, yes, there is that potential cap room that has been created. That cap relief is the focus on the Magic end.
But is this a step to the side or a step forward in trading away a versatile talent like Harris? And what do the Magic do with them this offseason.
According to Sportsline numbers provided to CBS, the Magic cost themselves one-third of a win this season in the trade. That is almost negligible and certainly means they will not get the 18-20 wins needed to make the Playoffs. Fortunately for Orlando, people seem to think Tobias Harris is no cure all for Detroit either.
About the only positive review of this deal came from Ric Bucher of Bleacher/Report who cited Jennings and Ilyasova’s veteran leadership, toughness and familiarity with Scott Skiles as things that should help the Magic climb back into the Playoff race.
But there is plenty of reason for skepticism on that front too.
The Magic should be able to compete the rest of the year with what they have returned and it should help set rotations some. Evan Fournier is the starter and Brandon Jennings can play point guard should C.J. Watson have another false start in his return form his calf injury or just is not what the Magic believed they were signing in the summer.
Jennings has his moments where he looks like his younger version and can put up a ton of points in a hurry. Ilyasova is also a player that can get hot and start firing away from beyond the arc at a strong rate.
But Ilyasova has had his struggles this year and Jennings is coming back from a torn Achilles about a year ago. As imperfect as Tobias Harris was, at least there was a comfort in knowing what he would provide the team.
It is assumed the Magic could create cap space — potentially $26 million according to Bobby Marks of The Vertical — by letting both walk this offseason. But there is the potential, especially if the team plays well with them, they could stay. And then things get really confusing.
That uncertainty is part of the reason Kevin Pelton of ESPN graded the Magic’s end of the deal with a D+:
"Whether or not Ilyasova returns, Orlando now has the opportunity to clear max-level cap space this summer. But it’s hard to see the Magic legitimately competing for the best players on the market as a lottery team with an ill-defined core. Below that top talent, there’s a steep drop-off to a second tier of players likely to get overpaid because there’s simply more money to go around than talent. I’d rather have Harris."
The best way to judge this deal is to wait to the future. And that is where the uncertainty lies.
The Magic have clearly stated time and again they are going for the Playoffs. This deal does not have that smell to it, despite all the lip service to it. The team certainly could work out with these players filling in these gaps.
But do the Magic as currently constructed have enough to attract that big-name free agent? There is the possibility they could clear two max slots or absorb a max player with their space at the draft and then sign another max player with the room created once the NBA calendar flips.
As constructed, it does not seem the Magic would be the most attractive fit for a star.
The Pistons clearly invested in Tobias Harris and his 23-year-old potential, something the Magic may have just sold early on, according to Josh Eberly of Hoops Habit. The Magic clearly invested in the potential of their future cap space.
Next: Orlando Magic Trade Value Column 2016
The results of both are too unknown at the moment to give out any meaningful grade.