Buy or Sell: Orlando Magic Playoff hopes

The Orlando Magic are now at a decisive point in the season, and its playoff hopes rest firmly upon a complete turn-around.

The Orlando Magic were at 19-13 when the 2015 calendar year concluded, but the team has been in a free fall ever since.

The Magic have lost 11 of 12 games in 2016, casting a huge cloud over their chances to crash the postseason. In some senses, the Magic are ahead of where we may have guessed before this season. But that is all due to the hot start, which has more or less entirely fizzled by this point.

The Magic are a team mired in problems, and diagnosing which can be fixed and which cannot is important.

Orlando is not suddenly going to have another long-distance shooter. They come at a price and really beyond Evan Fournier and Channing Frye, there are no others. Mario Hezonja may be ready to fit that bill in time, but he does not yet. He is not ready.

That leaves the Magic really a shooter or two shy from having the proper court spacing necessary to thrive. This is an era predicated heavily on the three-point shot, but Orlando is not even good in the mid-range (outside of Nikola Vucevic and Jason Smith).

The Magic also do an exceptionally poor job of ever getting to the free throw line. That issue, in part, has been remedied in the last few games at least.

All in all, this is a team that is on the cusp of a postseason berth, but it is still likely another season away. The Magic’s upcoming stretch of games will be both defining and difficult — the next 10 games all come against playoff-caliber teams.

If the Magic continue to play as they have, it will be 10 straight losses. But surely there can be some wins scattered in there, if the Magic react to what has not worked thus far.

To be sure, there have been moments the team has looked spot on. Three of the most recent losses (the Toronto Raptors, Charlotte Hornets and Memphis Grizzlies) went to overtime. The Magic are still not good at executing in close games, and that will remain a problem that the team works to solve.

The best play for a bucket seems to be a high pick and roll with Victor Oladipo handling the ball and Vucevic setting the pick.

Vucevic can create enough looks for himself when he catches the ball from 15-feet and inwards. Oladipo is good at getting right to the basket. It is the best option, but it is still not as great as what some other teams can employ.

The Magic, simply, lack a premier closer. It is another roster limitation on one with plenty others.

Tobias Harris is capable of some isolation, but he also is not one to shy away from forcing a tough shot. The Magic do not rely on Harris creating for the most part, but it would be an improvement to see him begin to make more plays on his drives to the basket. His floater coming across the paint is difficult for most defenders to stop, but Harris relies on that move so often that big men near the basket know it is coming.

The result has been him taking even more difficult shots, while often missing open teammates at the same time.

Beyond that, the Magic lack sufficient front court defenders, court spacers, and playmakers.

The frontcourt defense has been absolutely battered by opposing forwards and centers. That trend, at least, is no different than last season. At that point, we wondered whether the Magic could succeed with its frontcourt rotation — one that has changed little since.

It is hard to fathom an offense any better than average lacking those three elements. The result is many jerked plays forced by Elfrid Payton creating when nothing else is happening. Oladipo, to a lesser extent, also is good at creating offense out of nothing. He also often gets out of control while doing so.

But overall, teams need guys that can make things happen consistently. Once Elfrid Payton hits the bench, the offense stagnates. 

The result has been an extreme reluctance from Scott Skiles to play other point guards. Shabazz Napier and Keith Appling do little to encourage it, and C.J. Watson still is not ready to take the court.

There personnel issues are not catastrophic by any means. All in all, these problems are typical of younger teams.

Closing out games tends to be problematic, and a lot of silly mistakes add up in games to result in heartbreaking losses eventually.

The Magic easily could have put away the Memphis Grizzlies, but the team failed to get back after Tobias Harris’ transition dunk to put Orlando ahead four. The Grizzlies pushed it back and scored, giving Orlando a two point lead it would squander with a turnover on the inbounds.

These meltdowns cannot be the norm, or the result is a record far below .500. When the Magic put a team on the wall, they need to develop the instinct to crush them. That just has not been seen much this season.

Orlando still is a young duckling that may or may not be a swan. This rebuild is still in its primary stage, because that has to be defined by the inability to break into the postseason. Stage two begins when the Magic make the playoffs, but overall we are ready to sell on that prospect.

The Magic showed a lot of improvement early this season but the good feelings have dissipated into a sea of reality. This roster has too many deep-running flaws to make the playoffs in a vastly improved Eastern Conference this year.

Certainly the team wanted to see it take a step up, even if a small one, and be in the Playoff conversation. To this point, the Magic have largely done that. But it does not appear enough for now.

Next: Orlando Magic should remain patient as trade deadline nears

Perhaps the Magic will add the shooters and defenders they need to succeed. But at this time, the Magic just do not seem ready to be a playoff team.