Changing the Orlando Magic’s lineup will not solve the problem

The Orlando Magic seem more likely than not to change their lineup Friday night. That alone will not solve the problem. They have to play better.

As the Orlando Magic have fallen deeper and deeper into a hole in January, seemingly playing worse and worse with no end to their troubles in sight, Scott Skiles has hinted he and his coaching staff were considering changing the lineup. There always remained the belief this group that had found so much success before could pull themselves out.

After two straight listless performances against the Atlanta Hawks and the Philadelphia 76ers, failing to build off the strong second half against the Toronto Raptors in London, it seems Skiles and the Magic have hit the breaking point where change is necessary.

Skiles said after practice Thursday it is more than likely he will change his starting lineup for Friday’s game against the Charlotte Hornets. He said there are a few options in mind, but no final decision has been made. He would not share it with the media anyway.

The rationale from Skiles was partly the same reason the lineup changed initially. He is seeking better balance between the starting and bench units. In Wednesday’s game, the second unit began coming in late in the first quarter and dropped all the momentum the starters built.

Then again, there have been games where the starters have looked equally lifeless. Skiles yanked them from the game to start the third quarter, reverting to the line change substitution he tried early in the year to spark some emotion from the team.

This year, the Magic’s typical starting lineup of Elfrid Payton, Evan Fournier, Tobias Harris, Channing Frye and Nikola Vucevic has been very effective. They post 107.1 points per 100 possessions while giving up 100.4 points per 100 possessions. Those are both strong numbers.

Like everything else in the team, it has fallen completely off in January. That same lineup has posted a 91.1 offensive rating and a 108.7 defensive rating in 78 minutes of six games this month.

There is clearly a problem in the last nine games. A deadly one.

And a lineup change is certainly in order. And what that lineup should be is not exactly clear.

The going thought is to put Aaron Gordon and his boundless defensive energy in the starting lineup over Channing Frye. As much benefit as Frye can give the team with his presence, his effectiveness decreases dramatically when no one else is pulling the rope up with him. In January, the Magic have an abysmal 89.9 offensive rating with Frye in the game opposed to a 95.0 offensive rating with him out of the game.

Aaron Gordon is the practical answer to enter the starting lineup. Even in this horrid month of January, he has been a net positive on the floor — -10.7 net rating on the floor compared to -14.6 net rating with him off the floor in January.

In a starting lineup that replaces Elfrid Payton with Victor Oladipo, the Magic post a 120.3 offensive rating against a 105.4 defensive rating in 26 minutes in January. The lineup has played 39 minutes together total this season. In a small sample size it has some viability.

With Payton, the lineup’s efficiency drops dramatically — a 92.3 offensive rating and -15.3 net rating in 36 minutes.

These are small sample sizes for this point of the season. But Gordon is clearly not a cure all. Oladipo’s return at this point might be the closest thing to that, assuming he can keep up his play. And that is also remembering Payton missed four of the nine games this month and came off the bench for one.

That is to say, the numbers really do not reveal everything, although I am sure they will play a factor in the ultimate decision Skiles makes.

What these numbers also show is how few options there are. This is not a case of one player off the bench clearly playing better — although Oladipo was tearing things up before his injury, and Gordon has clearly put up solid individual numbers and comparatively better on/off numbers even as the team struggles.

The plain fact is there are few bright spots for the Magic as a team through January. There are no clear answers.

The only clear answer is that what the team is doing now is not working. That should spur change — certainly a desire to change to keep the same result from occurring.

The Magic should change something. Starting lineups, rotations, mentality. They have to. Things have gotten that bad with the way the team is playing.

The answer is not as clear as it was the last time the Magic felt they needed to make a lineup change. Here, no one is playing well.

They are not playing well together defensively. No one is working together offensively. The whole team is cratering.

The players Orlando needs to play well — Nikola Vucevic, Tobias Harris, Evan Fournier, Elfrid Payton and Victor Oladipo — are not playing at their best. Whether it is because of injury or whatever, the Magic need certain players to carry their weight.

The Magic were at their best when they had several players scoring 15 points. There was never a player scoring 25-30 points. It was always three or four players scoring 15-20 points. And then the defense was able to get stops and help the offense get in transition.

This is what is missing.

A lineup change will have a cosmetic effect. It may give a momentary boost.

But it alone will not be enough for this team. It needs a jolt more than a lineup change. It is probably not time to make any major (and risky) trades just to save this season.

Next: Three factors that can stop the Orlando Magic's slide

The team just needs to play better. There is no right move until that happens.